Category: Commentary

With the Cavaliers surviving a seven-game series battle on Sunday, the matchups have been set for Round 2 in the Eastern Conference.

The first matchup is between the Boston Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The absence of Kristaps Porzingis leaves the Celtics with a void to fill. Can the Cleveland Cavaliers capitalize on this opportunity to level the playing field? With their own injury concerns, notably Jarrett Allen’s absence, and coming off a taxing seven-game series, the Cavaliers’ offense may continue to struggle.

Meanwhile, in a throwback to the 90s, we get flashbacks of Spike Lee and Reggie Miller with the matchup between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. The Knicks emerge from a captivating series against the 76ers, earning acclaim for their resilient and clutch performances. Their gritty, grind-it-out style contrasts sharply with the run-and-gun approach of the Indiana Pacers, setting the stage for an intriguing clash of styles in this upcoming series.

Similar to the first round, here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. New York Knicks vs. 6. Indiana Pacers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

New York Knicks

• A key catalyst for the Knicks’ success has been the presence of OG Anunoby. When Anunoby has been on the court, the Knicks have thrived with an outstanding 24-5 straight up record and a 19-10 ATS record. Anunoby’s versatile contributions have proven instrumental in elevating the team’s performance on both ends of the court.

• Knicks’ games are 15-3 to the over in their last 18 games. Surprisingly, the Knicks ranked #7 in Offensive Rating during the regular season, exceeding expectations for a team coached by the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau.
• Despite their overall success, the Knicks have faced challenges against the Indiana Pacers in recent matchups. They have suffered losses in three out of their last four encounters with the Pacers, highlighting the competitive nature of their rivalry.

Indiana Pacers

• The Pacers have defied odds this season, sporting a solid 24-16-1 ATS record as underdogs. Their ability to exceed expectations underscores their resilience and competitive spirit on the court. When facing teams with an Offensive Rating greater than the league average, the Pacers have thrived, compiling an impressive 26-12-1 ATS record.
• In their previous 11 games, the Pacers have showcased their offensive firepower and their games went 9-2 record to the over. This streak of high-scoring games highlights their ability to generate scoring opportunities and capitalize on offensive possessions.
• Despite their strengths, the Pacers face challenges in rebounding, particularly on the defensive end. Ranking 25th in Offensive Rebound Percentage allowed, they are susceptible to opponents’ second-chance opportunities. This weakness could be exploited by opponents like the New York Knicks, who lead the league in Offensive Rebound Percentage.

1. Boston Celtics vs. 4. Cleveland Cavaliers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Boston Celtics

• The Boston Celtics have demonstrated their strength in the first half throughout the season, boasting an impressive 60-26-1 ATS record in the first half. This trend continued into the playoffs, where they went 4-1 ATS in the first half against the Miami Heat in the first round, highlighting their ability to start games strong.

• The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis in this round due to a calf injury. However, historical data reveals that the Celtics have fared well in games without Porzingis, holding a strong 22-4 SU and 16-8-2 ATS record. On/Off numbers indicate a decrease in Pace by an average of 4.7 possessions per 48 minutes when Porzingis is off the court; interestingly, their games have trended towards the over, with a record of 15-11.

• Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage have historically performed exceptionally well. Data from the KillerSports.com database reveals a strong 59-41 (59%) ATS record for such teams, underscoring the significance of rest and home-court advantage in setting the tone for the series. This historical trend could be a factor to consider in assessing the performance of teams in Game 1 matchups.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Teams coming off a seven-game series typically face challenges in Game 1 of the following series. Historical data from the Killer Sports database dating back to the 2002-2003 season reveals a 24-37-1 (39.3%) ATS record. Additionally, these games have trended towards the over, with a record of 37-23-2 (61.7%).

• The Cavaliers have faced difficulties in games without their key player, Jarrett Allen. They hold a 2-7 ATS record this season when Allen is sidelined. On/Off numbers from Basketball Reference underscore Allen’s significance, showing a notable -6.1 Net Rating when he is off the court. His absence could pose challenges for the Cavaliers and is worth monitoring, especially if he misses additional playing time.

• Cleveland has encountered road struggles in recent outings, losing 10 of their last 11 road games and posting a dismal 2-9 ATS record in those matchups. This road slump continued into the first round of the playoffs, where they faltered with a 0-3 record both SU and ATS against the Magic.

The dust has settled on the Western Conference Round 1 battles, leaving fans eagerly anticipating the upcoming slobber knocker that is Round 2.

Among the thrilling matchups is the clash between the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves, two Northwest Division rivals. Adding spice to the showdown are some juicy narratives: Timberwolves’ President of Basketball Operations, Tim Connelly was once part of the Nuggets’ brain trust that helped form their current-day roster. The Wolves, seeking redemption after last year’s playoff defeat, are primed for revenge. All eyes are on 22-year-old sensation Anthony Edwards, whose meteoric rise has brought upon a compelling matchup against the reigning NBA champions. Get your popcorn ready and brace yourselves for a showdown of epic proportions.

In the wake of the Timberwolves’ electrifying rise, another young force has emerged in the NBA landscape: the Oklahoma City Thunder. This dynamic squad has captivated fans with their performances and unexpected successes. The Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks enter the matchup riding waves of momentum, making this a highly anticipated showdown between two red-hot contenders.

Similar to the first round, here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. Denver Nuggets vs. 3. Minnesota Timberwolves

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Denver Nuggets

• The absence of Jamal Murray has been felt by the Nuggets this season, evident in their 8-15 record against the spread (ATS) in games where he did not play. Keep that in mind if he misses time during the series as he nurses a calf injury.

• The Nuggets/Lakers series set a brisk pace, registering at the highest pace (96.4) in the first round. This uptempo style of play could carry over into the second-round matchup against the Timberwolves, potentially leading to higher-scoring contests as both teams look to push the pace and capitalize on offensive opportunities.
• One area where the Nuggets hold an advantage is in first-half performance. Despite slow starts in the first round against the Lakers, season-long statistics reveal a favorable trend for Denver in the first half, with a 46-41 record against the spread (1H ATS). In contrast, the Timberwolves struggled in the first half during the regular season, posting a 36-48-1 record against the spread (1H ATS). This disparity could be a key factor in shaping the early stages of games in the upcoming series.

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Looking ahead to the next round, the Timberwolves face a formidable opponent in the Denver Nuggets. In their four meetings, they split the series 2-2, with the Timberwolves covering in three out of four games.
• The Timberwolves have excelled on the defensive end. Finishing the regular season ranked #1 in Defensive Rating underscores their ability to stifle opponents. However, the market on their totals is lower than actual. In their recent 12-game stretch, the Timberwolves have gone 9-3 record to the over.
• While their defensive achievements have garnered attention, the Timberwolves have also been a force to be reckoned with on the offensive end. Ranking first in Offensive Rating (123.2) and Offensive Rebound Percentage (39.2%) in the first round, they have showcased their ability to score at will and dominate the boards.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• The Thunder, a young and impressive team, have demonstrated their dominance at home by finishing with an outstanding 35-8 SU and 28-15 ATS record.
• In recent weeks, the Thunder have been on a tear, rattling off nine consecutive wins. This impressive streak includes a sweep against the New Orleans Pelicans and a 7-2 ATS record.
• While their last head-to-head matchup with the Mavericks may have fallen short of the total, seven of their previous eight matchups have gone over the total with an average score of 237.3.

Dallas Mavericks

• The Mavericks have also been dominant in recent weeks, going 20-6 straight up and ATS in their previous 26, showcasing their momentum. They are 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS in their previous 22 games that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played together.
• Throughout 2024, the Mavericks have a solid 36-19 record to the under.
• The Mavericks have established themselves as road warriors, boasting an impressive 28-15-1 ATS record in road games this season. Their ability to perform well away from home speaks to their resilience and adaptability.

As NBA playoff series unfold, a fascinating pattern emerges – scoring tends to decrease as the pressure mounts. Teams battle tooth and nail, defenses tighten, and every possession becomes a battleground. In this article, we delve into the statistical evidence behind this phenomenon and explore why unders could be a savvy play in Games 6 and 7 of playoff series.

Let’s dissect the average scoring and field goal percentage data by series game since the 2018-2019 season:

As the series progresses, we observe a consistent decline in scoring output, accompanied by a slight dip in field goal percentage. These numbers underscore the intensifying defensive battles and heightened pressure that characterize later games in playoff series.

Why Unders in Games 6 and 7? The statistical trends suggest compelling reasons why unders could be a smart bet in Games 6 and 7 of NBA playoff series:

As the series wears on, offensive efficiency tends to decline. Tighter defense, increased fatigue, and heightened pressure contribute to lower shooting percentages and fewer scoring opportunities. This trend often leads to fewer total points scored, making the under an attractive proposition for astute bettors.

Games 6s have historically been a strong under play. They’ve gone 99-71-6 (58.2%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season, per the KillerSports.com SDQL database.

Game 7s are the ultimate pressure cooker in NBA playoffs. With the series on the line, both teams dial up the defensive intensity, resulting in a slugfest characterized by rugged defense and low-scoring affairs. Additionally, the lower FG% in Game 7 indicates that shots are harder to come by, further supporting the case for betting the under. Game 7s have gone 12-4 to the under since the 2018-2019 season, 42-24 (63.6%) dating back to the 2002-2003 season.

By understanding the statistical patterns and factors driving decreased scoring as series progress, bettors can make informed decisions and gain an edge in the volatile world of NBA playoff betting. Whether it’s the grind-it-out nature of Game 6 or the pressure-packed atmosphere of Game 7, betting the under should be a strong consideration (among other factors) for those seeking to maximize their returns in the postseason arena.