Category: Commentary

The conference semi-finals were nothing short of thrilling and full of surprises! The series between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers, as well as the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, both went to a decisive Game 7. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks also delivered an electrifying showdown. Although the Boston Celtics versus Cleveland Cavaliers series lacked excitement, it was largely due to injuries on the Cavaliers’ side.

We witnessed a changing of the guard with the Timberwolves and Pacers, two rising teams that fought hard to advance. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks secured their spot in the conference finals for the second time in three seasons.

Kristaps Porzingis still remains sidelined for the Celtics with a calf injury. He is likely missing the first two games of the conference finals but there’s optimism he’ll return sometime during the series.

Similar to the first two rounds, here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. 4. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Minnesota Timberwolves

• The Wolves are 5-1 SU and ATS on the road in this playoffs.
• Wolves/Mavericks have gone 7-1-1 to the under in their previous nine matchups (dating back to March 21, 2022), averaging 219.7 points per game.
• A notable weakness for the Timberwolves this season is their slow starts at home, where they are 16-30 ATS (34.8%) in the first half. On the other hand, the Mavericks are 25-21-1 (54.3%) in the first half on the road.

Dallas Mavericks

• The Mavericks have established themselves as road warriors, boasting an impressive 30-16-1 ATS record in road games this season. Their ability to perform well away from home speaks to their resilience and adaptability.
• The Mavericks are ranked 2nd in Offensive Rebounding % in the playoffs; however, the Timberwolves are 3rd in Offensive Rebounding % allowed.
• Teams playing in Game 1 after a seven-game series (against a team that did not play a seven-game series) are 19-33-1 ATS in the history of the Killer Sports SDQL database. This trend supports a play on the Mavericks in Game 1.

1. Boston Celtics vs. 6. Indiana Pacers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Boston Celtics

• The Boston Celtics have demonstrated their strength in the first half throughout the season, boasting an impressive 63-28-1 ATS record in the first half. This trend continued into the playoffs, where they went 7-3 ATS in the first half in the first two rounds, highlighting their ability to start games strong.
• Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage have historically performed exceptionally well. Data from the KillerSports.com database reveals a strong 61-41 (59%) ATS record (5-1 ATS in these playoffs) for such teams, underscoring the significance of rest and home-court advantage in setting the tone for the series.

• Teams playing in Game 1 after a seven-game series (versus one that did not play a seven-game series) are 19-33-1 ATS in the history of the Killer Sports SDQL database. This trend supports a play on the Celtics in Game 1.

Indiana Pacers

• The Pacers have defied odds this season, sporting a solid 25-17-2 ATS record as underdogs. Their ability to exceed expectations underscores their resilience and competitive spirit on the court.
• In their previous 18 games, the Pacers have showcased their offensive firepower, with a 13-5 record to the over. They are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 games as underdogs, highlighting their ability to generate scoring opportunities and capitalize on offensive possessions.
• Contrary to the Celtics, the Pacers have been a poor first-half team. They have a 46-47-3 ATS record in the first half, compared to 53-42-1 ATS in the full game. They were 18th in Net Rating in the first half and 5th in Net Rating in the second half.