Category: Commentary

Kyrie’s Return to Boston: Key Betting Insights for the 2024 NBA Finals

Posted on by Austin Wang

Kyrie Irving #11 of the Dallas Mavericks drives against Derrick White at the TD Garden on March 1, 2024. (BRIAN FLUHARTY / GETTY IMAGES)

The NBA Finals are here! To no one’s surprise, the Celtics reigned supreme in the Eastern Conference. They’ve benefited from injuries to key players on their opponents’ rosters in each round. Celtics haven’t been fully healthy either – oft-injured big man Kristaps Porzingis missed Rounds 2 and 3. He is expected back in the lineup; however, rust and conditioning could be potential issues.

Hats off to the Dallas Mavericks! While their potential was recognized, many are surprised to see them outlast the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Thunder. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have formed an unstoppable duo, consistently delivering in clutch moments. Mid-season acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford have excelled in their roles, while rookie Dereck Lively made significant contributions, especially in the series against the Thunder.

A lot of juicy narratives are at play. Irving’s short stint with the Celtics (2017-2019) held much promise but ultimately fell short, leading to significant hostility between Irving and the Boston fans. Expect an earful directed at Irving from the Boston faithful at TD Garden. On the other side, Porzingis will face his former team, the Mavericks, where his two-and-a-half season tenure was marred by injuries and chemistry issues.

Here are a few bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

1. Boston Celtics vs. 4. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.


Boston Celtics

  • The Boston Celtics have demonstrated their strength in the first half throughout the season, boasting an impressive 64-31-1 ATS record in the first half. This trend continued into the playoffs, where they went 7-3 ATS in the first half in the first two rounds, but only 1-3 1H ATS in the Conference Finals against the Pacers.
  • The home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone 18-3 SU and 17-4 ATS in the history of the KillerSports.com database.
  • Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage have historically performed exceptionally well. Data from the KillerSports.com database reveals a strong 61-42 (59%) ATS record (5-2 ATS in these playoffs) for such teams, underscoring the significance of rest and home-court advantage in setting the tone for the series. Specific to the NBA Finals, this trend has gone 8-2 ATS.
  • Favorites playing in Game 1 after a sweep are 23-14-1 ATS. These stats favor the under as well.


Dallas Mavericks

  • The Mavericks have established themselves as road warriors, boasting an impressive 33-16-1 ATS record in road games this season. Their ability to perform well away from home speaks to their resilience and adaptability. They are 7-2 ATS on the road in the postseason.
  • The Mavericks are 27-6 SU and 25-8 ATS when both Doncic and Irving suit up, dating back to March 7, 2024.
  • Unlike the Celtics, the Mavericks are not a strong first-half team. This season, they are 57-41-1 ATS for the full game but only 48-50-1 ATS in the first half.
  • Some interesting stat comparisons to note in these playoffs:

    – The Mavericks rank 2nd in Free Throw Rate, but the Celtics are 1st in Free Throw Rate allowed.

    – The Mavericks’ duo of young big men has propelled them to the 3rd best Offensive Rebounding Percentage in the playoffs, while the Celtics are 1st in Offensive Rebounding Percentage allowed.

    – The Mavericks average the most corner three-point attempts in the postseason. However, the Celtics neutralize this, ranking 1st in both Corner 3 attempts allowed and Corner 3 FG% allowed.

Stats and trends are pointing to the Celtics -6.5 and Celtics 1H -3.5. However, the Mavericks have defied odds throughout the playoffs (especially on the road) and have been red-hot as of late. We are eagerly awaiting this Finals matchup!

For a limited time, Basic Access is free until August 1, offering coverage for the majority of the MLB and WNBA season. Plus, with Baller Access, you’ll unlock access to profitable situational systems and exclusive breakdowns that can give you an edge in your betting strategy.

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Regression for Lugo? MLB 2024 Early Season Betting Report

Posted on by Austin Wang

Stats updated through June 2, 2024

As the MLB season progresses, several intriguing trends have emerged, highlighting unique performances and patterns among various teams. These stats provide a fascinating lens through which to view the ongoing dynamics of the league.

Our matchup pages are an excellent tool for you to dive into each MLB matchup. We will still be providing our trends, now only available to our ‘Baller Access‘ subscribers.


Most/Least Profitable Teams

As usual, the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers dominate the headlines, but the AL Central has been turning heads this season. The Guardians and Royals have emerged as the two of the most profitable teams in the league. Seth Lugo has been spectacular, making an early case for the Cy Young Award. While the Guardians’ metrics aren’t eye-popping, they rank third in the league in runs scored.

The biggest surprise of all? The Nationals. With an average betting line of +149 this season, they are hovering around .500 and overachieving, making money for their bettors. Trevor Williams has been incredible and consistent, with the Nationals going 9-2 when he starts.

The White Sox have been an obvious fade, but what about the Astros? They have gotten off to a slow start and are currently seven games under .500. They’ve been the most profitable team to fade, as the market still remains bullish on them. They also got off to a slow start last season, so there’s still a chance for them to turn it around.

The Marlins have been a great fade overall, especially when they face lefty starting pitchers. They are 2-18 straight up in this situation, making this our favorite trend of the season.


Best Over Teams/Best Under Teams

The Brewers’ offense has been hot this season, leading the league in overs. The Tigers have gone 12-3 to the over in their last 15 games. Surprisingly, the Marlins find themselves on this list due to their defense and pitching ranking at the bottom of the league.

The Rangers, Braves, and Astros have suffered from high market expectations and underperforming offenses. The Astros have gone under in eight straight games. In late April and early May, the Braves had a stretch where they went 20-1 to the under. The Rangers have gone 9-2-1 to the under in their last 12 games, while the Mariners are 7-2 to the under in their last nine.


Best/Worst Starters


To clarify, these statistics represent the team’s full game record and ROI when these respective pitchers start the game, so they are not fully indicative of the pitchers’ individual performances. For instance, Brayan Bello, despite a 4.18 ERA, is one of the names on the list of profitable starters. On the other hand, poor Reese Olson is pitching well, but the Tigers’ bullpen and offense haven’t been able to provide him with any support.

There have been dominant performances from some unexpected names on this list. As mentioned earlier, T. Williams has been the most profitable pitcher this year. Additionally, two Royals pitchers, Lugo and Alec Marsh, have made the list.

Meanwhile, there are some familiar and expected names, such as Yusei Kikuchi as a starter to fade. Andrew Heaney just picked up his first win on May 28 and is looking to turn around his rough start, but he has been one of the most profitable starters to play against. Similarly, Trevor Rogers, Hunter Brown, and Mike Soroka have been automatic fades this season.


Overrated pitchers/Underrated Pitchers


To identify potential/negative regression, here are a few tips on what to analyze:

  • Compare FIP to ERA: A large discrepancy suggests likely regression. Lower FIP than ERA indicates positive regression; higher FIP than ERA indicates negative regression.
  • Check BABIP: Significant deviations from league average or career norms indicate luck and potential regression.
  • Evaluate LOB% and HR/FB Ratios: Extreme values suggest potential regression to the mean.
  • Monitor K% and BB%: Stability in these metrics indicates reliability in performance prediction.

Astros rookie Spencer Arrighetti might be a player to watch as the season progresses. Although he has had a rough start, underlying metrics suggest that bad luck has played a significant role. Cole Ragan’s FIP is excellent, but his ERA has suffered from two bad starts – there were two starts where he gave up seven runs.

On the other hand, advanced metrics indicate that Lugo is a candidate for negative regression. James Paxton, currently boasting a 5-0 win-loss record, is pitcher that may be over-valued playing for the high-profile Dodgers, who may face regression. Ronel Blanco may be heading that direction already after enduring his worst start of the season by giving up four runs.

Interesting Trends of the Year

  • Marlins are 2-18 SU against left-handed pitchers this season.
  • Mets: 17-8 to the over on the road, 20-12 to the under at home
  • Giants: 19-9-1 to the over on the road, 17-11-1 to the under at home
  • Marlins: 22-8 to the over at home (13-3 to the over run), 17-10-1 to the under on the road
  • Guardians: 20-6 home record
  • Angels: 7-21 home record (while they are 14-15 SU on the road)
  • Phillies: 19-2 run at home (23-8 for the season at home)

If you have been a fan of our daily in-season trends pages, sign up for Baller Access for continued access!

WNBA 2024 Week 3: Power Rankings

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

The WNBA season is well underway, with several weeks of action behind us. We’ve analyzed each team’s performance in this early stage and have updated our power rankings accordingly. See which teams moved the most! These stats were as of the morning of Wednesday, May 29.

12. Washington Mystics (preseason rank: 10)

  • We mentioned in our season preview that the absence of Elena Delle Donne and Natasha Cloud paints a bleak picture for the Mystics’ 2024 prospects. With a 0-6 record, and Sky and Sparks showing some life, we’ve moved the Mystics to the bottom of the rankings.
  • Shakira Austin and Ariel Atkins are the two leading scorers, which is not a good sign, since they are both defensive specialists that are only role-players on offense.
  • They are slightly better than market expectations with a 3-2-1 ATS record.



11. Indiana Fever (preseason rank: 9)

  • Ther was considerable hype surrounding Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. They are 1-7 SU, but 4-4 ATS in their first 7 games. They will get better, but we will downgrade them to 11 as Clark faces the transition from college to the pros.
  • Last year’s Rookie of the Year Aaliyah Boston has taken a step backwards this year. She is only average 11.0 PPG on 44.2% shooting from the field (compared to 14.8 PPG and 57.8 FG% last season).


10. Los Angeles Sparks (preseason rank: 11)

  • Embracing a youth movement, the team traded former MVP Ogwumike and looking to develop their two draft picks, Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson. Both have been playing well to start the year.
  • Dearica Hamby has stepped up as the team’s alpha. She is averaging 20.0 PPG and 12.7 RPG in the first six games. If she keeps this up, she might be considered for Most Improved Player.
  • This team has the potential to be one of the better defensive units in the league, but they are only ranked 7th so far in this early season.


9. Chicago Sky (preseason rank: 12)

  • The Chicago Sky have entered a full rebuild phase with a new coach. Despite this, they have added promising talents in Kamilla Cardoso and Angel Reese. However, Cardoso’s contribution will be delayed due to a shoulder injury, sidelining her for 4-6 weeks.
  • Last season, the Sky surpassed expectations with a 21-16-3 ATS record. They are starting off this season well too, exceeding market expectations with a 3-1-1 ATS record. Marina Mabrey is having a breakout season and leads the Sky at scoring with 16.8 PPG.
  • Reese is performing well to begin her rookie campaign, almost averaging with a double-double with 12.0 PPG and 8.6 RPG.



8. Dallas Wings

  • The Wings have continued their run-and-gun style, ranking 2nd in Pace.
  • Not only are they without Satou Sabally, but they will also now be without Natasha Howard for an extended period of time.
  • Arike Ogunbowale will need to shoulder more of the burden – she is averaging 28.8 PPG so far this season, but is this sustainable? After scoring 40 points in the win against the Mercury, we may see teams start to put more pressure on her.



7. Atlanta Dream (preseason rank: 5)

  • Following their early exit from the playoffs, the Dream re-tooled their roster with solid acquisitions during the offseason. On paper, they have a strong and deep squad. They’ve started the season off 2nd in Offensive Rating, but 11th in Defensive Rating.
  • We are not necessarily “downgrading” the Dream this week – we simply saw more optimism on the Lynx and Mercury to move them ahead. Also, we still rank the Storm slightly ahead of the Dream until they prove us otherwise.
  • Last season, they boasted a strong 23-17 ATS record in the first half, contrasting with 19-20-1 ATS record for full games. This season, they are 0-4 1H ATS.


6. Phoenix Mercury

  • With a new coaching staff in place and notable acquisitions like Natasha Cloud and Kahleah Copper, the Mercury may still need some time to adjust and. They’ve had a mediocre start to the season at 3-3 SU and ATS, including one outright win against the Aces.
  • This has all been without Britney Griner. Her return will help out their defense, which is ranked 9th in the league.
  • Copper has stepped up her game – she has three 30-point-plus performances and has been an excellent pickup for the Mercury so far.



5. Seattle Storm (preseason rank: 4)

  • The Storm have made significant strides this offseason, aiming not just for a postseason return but eyeing a title run. Led by rising star Jewell Loyd, the team added Ogwumike and Diggins-Smith, forming a dangerous Big 3 combination. This infusion of talent addresses a crucial need for a team that ranked last in Offensive Rating last season.
  • However, the offense has not turned around just yet. They are ranked 10thh in Offensive Rating. Jewell Loyd is struggling to adjust to her new teammates and is shooting an abysmal 32.1% from the field.
  • We expect the Storm need some more time to build chemistry and will turn things around. Until we see that happen, we are bumping them down a spot.



4. Minnesota Lynx (preseason rank: 7)

  • The Lynx improved their backcourt, complementing star player Napheesa Collier with some solid, underrated acquisitions in Hiedeman and Williams. Anticipate an uptick in offensive performance with the addition of these playmakers to their roster.
  • They’ve started the season 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS! Collier is crushing it, and if the Lynx keep this up, you will hear her name is MVP discussions.
  • They have the number one ranked defense in the league. They are putting the clamps down on their opponents.



3. New York Liberty (preseason rank: 2)

  • The Liberty will be seeking redemption after the loss to the Aces in the Finals last season. With a core consisting of Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Courtney Vandersloot, they aim to maintain that dominance.
  • They’ve started the season off slow relative to their expectations. Although they are 4-2 SU, they are 1-5 ATS. They are ranked 4th in Offensive Rating, which is surprising given the talent on their squad and their weak schedule. They’ve dropped two straight games with losses against the Lynx and Sky.
  • We typically try not to make rash decisions, but after a slow start and two straight losses, we’ve moved the Liberty down one spot in the rankings.



2. Connecticut Sun (preseason rank: 3)

  • Despite the departure of Jonquel Jones, the Sun defied expectations last season, led by the deadly trio of Alyssa Thomas, Brionna Jones, and DeWanna Bonner. Dijonai Carrington has taken a huge leap this season after being inserted into the starting lineup.
  • They’ve kept it up this season with a 6-0 start, but they are only 2-4 ATS. They’ve faced an easy schedule so far, so we will see how they fare against some tougher competition.
  • Their games have gone 4-2 to the over, but they are ranked 2nd in Defensive Rating and 12th in Pace. Unders may be a good look if they keep up those metrics.



1. Las Vegas Aces

  • The Aces aim for a three-peat this season but lost a huge piece with the retirement of Candace Parker. Their Offensive Rating is still elite, ranking first in the league. However, their Defensive Rating has struggled and is only ranked 8th in the league to start the year.
  • There are concerns about potential championship hangover or fatigue, given the intensity of their previous seasons. This has led to slow starts – they are 0-4 ATS in the first half and 1-3 ATS full game, even with a cushy schedule where all four of their games have been at home.
  • Chelsea Gray has yet to play a game this season. Add her back to this solid core and expect the Aces to dominate.


The Money Baller is excited to announce that we’ll be providing matchup pages packed with comprehensive data, statistics, and trends for the WNBA, just like our NBA matchup pages.

For a limited time, Basic Access is free until August 1, offering coverage for the majority of the WNBA season. Plus, with Baller Access, you’ll unlock access to profitable situational systems and exclusive breakdowns that can give you an edge in your betting strategy.

Don’t miss out! Click here to sign up and elevate your WNBA betting experience today!