Category: Commentary

• Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2024
• Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
• Start Time: 9:40 PM ET

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

As the Colorado Rockies head to Angel Stadium of Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels, the matchup brings together two teams trending in opposite directions offensively and with divergent performances from their starting pitchers.

The Rockies have been quietly effective against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days, ranking 6th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+. This offensive surge has been fueled by their impressive batting metrics (4th in batting average, 3rd in home run per flyball percentage, and 6th in both ISO and hard contact percentage).

On the mound for the Angels, Griffin Canning has faced significant struggles this season. Among qualified pitchers, Canning has the worst FIP in the league, the 4th worst xFIP, and ranks in the bottom five in both hard contact percentage allowed and batting average against. His July has been particularly rough, with a .319 batting average allowed, 13 earned runs given up in just 17 innings pitched, and a 6.88 ERA. Tonight’s matchup against a hot Rockies lineup could present further difficulties.

Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Rockies, coming off a solid outing against the red-hot Red Sox, where he allowed only two earned runs on six hits over six innings. Quantrill’s repertoire includes a sinker (37%), splitter (28%), and cutter (14%), pitches that the Angels have struggled against, ranking 20th, 27th, and 27th in runs above average, respectively. Quantrill has also shown a knack for success in specific scenarios; since 2021, he is 11-2 SU (3-0 SU this season) against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .550, sending a pitcher with an ERA above 4.00 when the expected runs total is nine or more.

In contrast, the Angels’ offense has been anemic against right-handed pitchers, ranking 27th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ over the last month. They are 26th in batting average, 29th in slugging percentage, and rank last in both ISO and home run per flyball percentage during the same period.

With the Rockies’ offense firing on all cylinders and the Angels’ lineup and pitching staff facing significant struggles, Colorado appears well-positioned for a strong showing tonight.

The combination of Quantrill’s solid recent performance and Canning’s challenges on the mound point to a nice underdog play on Rockies ML (+120, DK and ESPNBet).

• Date: Monday, July 29, 2024
• Game: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
• Start Time: 9:40 PM ET

As the Washington Nationals visit the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, all eyes will be on the matchup on the mound and the contrasting offensive capabilities of the two teams. The Diamondbacks, with their strong track record at home, have an advantage to continue their successful run, especially when Jordan Montgomery takes the hill.

Montgomery has been a stabilizing force for the Diamondbacks this season, particularly in the friendly confines of Arizona. The team is a perfect 5-0 when Montgomery starts as a home favorite. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have a 7-1 record after Montgomery delivers a quality start.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been superior against left-handed pitching at home over the past 30 days, ranking 5th in both wOBA and wRC+. This recent surge contrasts sharply with the Nationals, who have struggled mightily against lefties on the road, sitting 27th in these metrics.

Montgomery’s pitching arsenal, featuring a sinker (36%), curveball (27%), changeup (20%), and 4-seam fastball (15%), aligns well against the Nationals’ lineup. Washington ranks 9th in runs above average against the sinker but falls significantly against the curveball (28th) and changeup (26th). Montgomery’s repertoire could prove challenging for the Nationals’ hitters, particularly given that he’s due for some positive regression (4.31 FIP vs. 6.11 ERA).

On the other side, the Nationals will rely on their starter, Mitchell Parker, whose mix includes a 4-seam fastball (49%), curveball (25%), and splitter (17%). The Diamondbacks have been exceptional against these pitches, ranking 1st in runs above average versus the 4-seam and 2nd against the curveball.

With the Diamondbacks’ strong home-field advantage, a balanced lineup excelling against left-handed pitching, and Montgomery’s ability to deliver quality starts, Arizona appears well-positioned for another solid performance. The Nationals, facing a challenging matchup, will need to overcome significant hurdles to pull off an upset.

The stats and trends point to Diamondbacks ML (-160, Caesars) as a strong look tonight.

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Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

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I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

• White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts | 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP | lost 14 consecutive games
  • In addition to the clear trends fading Flexen and the White Sox, the Royals have a strong Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’ today, making this our favorite angle of the day.
    
• Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024 | In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
  • There are aligning ‘over’ trends with both teams, and we like this to continue, especially in a hitters’ park like Camden Yards. Zach Eflin makes his first start for the Orioles, and we expect the hard-hitting Orioles to give some run support for their new pitcher. Has the Blue Jays offense woken up? They scored 20 runs in their three-game series against the Rangers.
    

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

• Orioles: 23-10-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
• Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024.

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

• Guardians: 16-5 ML when Tanner Bibee starts.
• In L30 days, Guardians: 3-10-3 F5 ML vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Tigers: 16-4 RL (+1.5) as an underdog.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

• In L30 days, Yankees: 14-4-1 O/U vs. RHP.
• Phillies: 25-4-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• Phillies: 9-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Zach Wheeler starts.

Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets

• In L30 days, Mets: 23-3 NRFI.
• Mets: 29-11 NRFI as home favorites.
• Twins: 19-8-1 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals

• In L30 days, Cardinals are 18-6 NRFI.
• In L30 days, Rangers are 5-0 YRFI when Nathan Eovaldi starts.

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

• Mariners: 4-16-1 F5 O/U when Logan Gilbert starts.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

• Reds: 5-0 F5 O/U when Carson Spiers starts.
• In L30 days, Reds: 11-3-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Reds: 18-5 NRFI.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

• Pirates: 8-1-3 F5 ML when Paul Skenes starts.
• In L30 days, Pirates: 20-6 NRFI.

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Braves: 13-3 NRFI as a road underdog.

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

• White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts.
• White Sox: 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP.
• White Sox: lost 14 consecutive games.

Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Diamondbacks: 5-0 F5 and full game ML when Jordan Montgomery starts.
• Diamondbacks: 11-3 F5 O/U when Montgomery starts.
• In L30 days, Nationals: 0-4 F5 ML when Mitchell Parker starts.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

• Date: Sunday, July 28, 2024
• Game: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
• Start Time: 05:10 PM ET

Tonight’s game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park is set to be a high-octane affair, with both teams bringing potent offenses and intriguing pitching matchups to the table.

The Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon has been a significant factor in high-scoring games this season, with a 13-6-1 record to the OVER and an impressive 7-2-0 mark as an away favorite. His xERA of 4.26 suggests he might be vulnerable, especially against a Red Sox lineup that has shown proficiency against pitchers with similar repertoires, who have an ERA of 4.89 against Boston over the past year.

Rodon primarily relies on his 4-seam fastball (53%) and slider (27%). The Red Sox are well-equipped to handle these pitches, ranking 7th in runs above average against both the 4-seam and the slider. This sets up a fascinating duel, as Boston’s hitters have been in fine form recently, ranking 2nd in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ at home over the past month.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck, whose surface-level stats (2.71 ERA) might be masking some underlying concerns, as indicated by his 3.82 xERA. Houck’s pitch mix includes a slider (43%), sinker (31%), and splitter (22%). The Yankees’ lineup, known for its offensive firepower, ranks 9th, 1st, and 2nd in runs above average against these pitches, respectively.

The Yankees have been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road this season, ranking 2nd in both wOBA and wRC+. They also lead the league in runs per game on the road, further emphasizing the challenge Houck will face tonight. Conversely, the Red Sox have had their own issues with run prevention at home, allowing the 6th most runs per game.

With both teams’ offenses firing on all cylinders and the pitchers facing tough matchups, we can expect an exciting and potentially high-scoring game. The storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox adds an extra layer of intensity, ensuring that tonight’s showdown at Fenway Park will be a good one.

My analysis points to a play on the Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 (-108, DraftKings).