Category: Commentary

Hello everyone! Welcome to our ‘Free Preview’ day. For those new to the site, this is a daily article we provide to our premium Baller Access subscribers. Our team went 2-0 yesterday with the featured trends! Orioles F5 RL and the Mariners/Mets NRFI were a hit.

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I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends:

• Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts | Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
  • Several factors point to value on the Cubs moneyline (-120, ESPN Bet) tonight. Shota Imanaga has been solid this season with a 3.06 ERA. In contrast, Ben Lively has a 3.59 ERA but a concerning 4.75 FIP, suggesting he could be due for some negative regression. The Cubs are also backed by a strong Baller Matchup Rating of 6, and supported by an active Baller System that favors teams in the first game of a road, non-divisional series when on at least a two-game winning streak.

• Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts
• Rays: 4-12 O/U (1-8 O/U at home) when Taj Bradley starts.
  • The trends heavily favor the under in this matchup, with two solid pitchers on the mound. The table below highlights both pitchers’ stats over the last 30 days. Under 7.5 (-120, ESPN Bet) is the most favorable price we see out there.

• Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML as home favorites vs. RHP | 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024
• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
  • Keep an eye on this game, as some books have been slow to release lines, suggesting there could be a pitching change. If that happens, the Baller Matchup Rating could change. If not, the surging Diamondbacks make a great parlay piece or run-line candidate.

• Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts | 20-10-3 F5 ML vs. LHP.
  • The Braves have been underwhelming lately, but with Chris Sale on the mound and their strong record against left-handed pitchers, we think they have a good chance to overcome the red-hot Blake Snell and the Giants. Braves F5 ML (-105, BetRivers) is a value play for today.

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians

• Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts.
• Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• Guardians: 25-9 ML vs. LHP.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

• Cardinals: 6-1 ML as road favorites vs. LHP.
• Cardinals: 6-1 ML and O/U as road favorites when Sonny Gray starts.
• Reds: 6-16-1 O/U when Andrew Abbott starts.
• Reds: 2-8 O/U as home underdogs vs. RHP.

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

• Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts.
• In L30 days, Astros: 2-13-2 F5 O/U vs. RHP.
• Rays: 4-12 O/U when Taj Bradley starts.

Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox

• Red Sox: 15-5-1 F5 O/U when Brayan Bello starts.
• Red Sox: 17-6-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

• Royals: 9-20 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
• Royals: 24-10 NRFI as a road underdog.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

• In L30 days, Brewers: 1-6-1 F5 ML vs. LHP.

New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

• Yankees, despite being a top team, struggle against lefties. They are 10-14-6 F5 ML vs. LHP.
• White Sox are 1-23 ML since July 12, 2024.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

• Blue Jays: 5-0 O/U when Bowden Francis starts.

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML and 14-5-5 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
• Diamondbacks: 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024.
  

Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres

• Pirates: 31-13 NRFI as road underdogs.
• Pirates: 29-15 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
• Padres: 15-33 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.
  

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

• Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts.
• Braves: 15-3 NRFI as road underdogs.
• Braves: 20-10-3 F5 ML and 21-12 ML vs. LHP.
  

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

Game: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Friday, August 9

Time: 5:07 PM ET

In tonight’s highlighted matchup, we are heading north of the border at Rogers Centre for a game between the Oakland A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays. Mitch Spence will take the hill for Oakland and the Jays will send Jose Berrios

Spence’s performance as an away underdog has been dismal, with a record of 1-4 in such situations. His struggles are exacerbated when coming off games where he throws 90+ pitches, holding a 1-6 record in those scenarios. This suggests that Spence tends to wear down, making him vulnerable in his following start. Additionally, his road ERA stands at 5.22, significantly higher than his home ERA of 3.86. His peripheral stats are also concerning, as he ranks in the 18th percentile for barrel rate, 22nd percentile for exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. These numbers indicate that hitters are making solid contact against him, especially on the road.

Berrios has been a reliable force for the Blue Jays, particularly when playing at home. As a home favorite, he boasts a 7-2 record, and when facing teams with a losing record, he’s even more dominant with an 8-1 record. Berrios has a 2.99 ERA at home, compared to a much less impressive 5.29 ERA on the road. Moreover, Berrios has had the Athletics’ number, winning his last five starts against them dating back to 2021.

The Blue Jays have been hot offensively at home, ranking 7th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. On the other hand, the Athletics have been one of the worst teams in these categories, ranking 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers on the road during the same period. The Athletics are also the 4th worst scoring team and rank 5th worst in run defense on the road this season, which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup.

Given the clear pitching advantage with Berrios, the Blue Jays’ recent offensive success at home, and the Athletics’ struggles both offensively and defensively on the road, the Blue Jays’ moneyline (-155) looks like a strong play. Berrios’ track record against the Athletics and Spence’s poor performance trends only solidify the confidence in this bet.

Back the Blue Jays to take care of business at home tonight.

• Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
• Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
• Start Time: 5:07 PM ET

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an interesting matchup. These teams just faced off in Baltimore a week ago where the Orioles won the series 3-1. Can the Blue Jays get their revenge at home?

Grayson Rodriguez vs. Chris Bassitt

Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound for the Orioles, bringing with him an ERA of 3.86, but an xERA of 3.74, signaling that he’s due for some positive regression. Rodriguez has a potent fastball, which he elevates 62% of the time, 2nd most in the league. This is a significant advantage as Blue Jays hitters have struggled with elevated fastballs, slugging just .310, the 4th worst in MLB. Additionally, 90% of Rodriguez’s fastballs clock in at 95 mph or greater, and the Blue Jays have a poor .342 slugging percentage against pitches of this velocity, ranking 5th worst in the league.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. He has struggled this season, particularly in the last 30th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), and barrel rate among qualified pitchers. Bassitt’s hard-hit percentage allowed is a relatively modest 31.9%. However, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been a weak point, with relievers allowing a slugging percentage of .445, the worst in MLB. Bassitt has rarely made it past the sixth inning in July, so expect Toronto’s shaky relief corps to play a significant role tonight.

Orioles’ offensive firepower

Baltimore’s offense has been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road, ranking 1st in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Their hitters lead the league with a hard-hit rate of 44%, and they’ll be looking to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ pitching vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ bats have been less impressive, sitting at 16th and 15th in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home.

The Orioles’ prowess extends to facing relief pitchers, where they lead MLB with a .442 slugging percentage. With Bassitt unlikely to go deep into the game, Baltimore’s lineup should see ample success against a struggling Blue Jays bullpen.

Player to watch: Ryan O’Hearn

One of the key players for the Orioles tonight might be Ryan O’Hearn. He has a remarkable OPS of 1.445 in nine at-bats against Bassitt over the last two seasons. O’Hearn thrives against cutters, which is Bassitt’s second-most thrown pitch at 20.1%. With a batting average of .400 and a fly ball rate of 47.8% against cutters, O’Hearn could go yard.

Betting side

Given the Orioles’ offensive strength, especially against right-handed pitching and relief pitchers, they are a solid bet to cover the -1.5 run-line (+110, consensus line). Additionally, O’Hearn is a player to target for player props, considering his favorable matchup against Bassitt and his success against cutters.

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.