Category: Commentary

• Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
• Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
• Start Time: 5:07 PM ET

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Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an interesting matchup. These teams just faced off in Baltimore a week ago where the Orioles won the series 3-1. Can the Blue Jays get their revenge at home?

Grayson Rodriguez vs. Chris Bassitt

Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound for the Orioles, bringing with him an ERA of 3.86, but an xERA of 3.74, signaling that he’s due for some positive regression. Rodriguez has a potent fastball, which he elevates 62% of the time, 2nd most in the league. This is a significant advantage as Blue Jays hitters have struggled with elevated fastballs, slugging just .310, the 4th worst in MLB. Additionally, 90% of Rodriguez’s fastballs clock in at 95 mph or greater, and the Blue Jays have a poor .342 slugging percentage against pitches of this velocity, ranking 5th worst in the league.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. He has struggled this season, particularly in the last 30th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), and barrel rate among qualified pitchers. Bassitt’s hard-hit percentage allowed is a relatively modest 31.9%. However, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been a weak point, with relievers allowing a slugging percentage of .445, the worst in MLB. Bassitt has rarely made it past the sixth inning in July, so expect Toronto’s shaky relief corps to play a significant role tonight.

Orioles’ offensive firepower

Baltimore’s offense has been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road, ranking 1st in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Their hitters lead the league with a hard-hit rate of 44%, and they’ll be looking to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ pitching vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ bats have been less impressive, sitting at 16th and 15th in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home.

The Orioles’ prowess extends to facing relief pitchers, where they lead MLB with a .442 slugging percentage. With Bassitt unlikely to go deep into the game, Baltimore’s lineup should see ample success against a struggling Blue Jays bullpen.

Player to watch: Ryan O’Hearn

One of the key players for the Orioles tonight might be Ryan O’Hearn. He has a remarkable OPS of 1.445 in nine at-bats against Bassitt over the last two seasons. O’Hearn thrives against cutters, which is Bassitt’s second-most thrown pitch at 20.1%. With a batting average of .400 and a fly ball rate of 47.8% against cutters, O’Hearn could go yard.

Betting side

Given the Orioles’ offensive strength, especially against right-handed pitching and relief pitchers, they are a solid bet to cover the -1.5 run-line (+110, consensus line). Additionally, O’Hearn is a player to target for player props, considering his favorable matchup against Bassitt and his success against cutters.

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Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

• Date: Monday, August 5, 2024
• Game: San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
• Start Time: 4:45 PM ET

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Tonight’s game at Nationals Park features a compelling matchup as the San Francisco Giants take on the Washington Nationals. With Logan Webb pitching for the Giants and Patrick Corbin taking the mound for the Nationals, the game sets up favorably for San Francisco, particularly given the recent performances and season-long trends of both teams.

Pitching Matchup: Webb vs. Corbin

Logan Webb has been a reliable force for the Giants, with a strong track record against struggling teams. Since 2021, Webb has gone 9-2 straight up (SU) against non-divisional opponents with a losing record who send a starting pitcher with an ERA above 5.00 on the mound. Tonight, he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 24th in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers at home this season. Furthermore, Washington’s hitters have been making weak contact recently, ranking 26th in hard contact rate against righties over the last 14 days.

Webb’s pitch arsenal, which includes a heavy dose of changeups (37%), sinkers (36%), and sliders (22%), aligns well against a Nationals lineup that struggles with these pitches. Specifically, Washington ranks 22nd, 18th, and 25th, respectively, in runs above average against Webb’s primary offerings.

On the other side, Patrick Corbin has endured a tough season, with metrics placing him among the league’s worst. Corbin is in the bottom fifth percentile for expected wOBA (xwOBA), expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. The Giants, who rank seventh in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers on the road this season, are well-equipped to take advantage of Corbin’s struggles. Moreover, Corbin has gone 1-8 SU this season against teams with a winning percentage above .480 when their starting pitcher has an ERA below 4.00.

Corbin’s pitch mix includes sliders (36%), sinkers (34%), four-seam fastballs (14%), and cutters (11%). The Giants have performed well against these pitches, ranking eighth, third, 17th, and 21st, respectively, in runs above average. San Francisco’s hitters have also been making solid contact lately, ranking second in hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 14 days.

Prediction: Giants to Secure the Win

The Giants’ offense has been potent against left-handed pitching, and tonight’s game provides another opportunity to showcase their strength.

Webb’s effectiveness against struggling lineups and the Giants’ strong offensive numbers against left-handers point to a decisive advantage. Meanwhile, Corbin’s ongoing struggles and the Nationals’ weak offensive output make it challenging to foresee a different outcome.

Betting on the Giants ML (-165, BetMGM) to win appears to be a solid choice, as they aim to continue their success against a reeling Nationals team.

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game, featuring one BALLER SYSTEM active.

Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

Hello Ballers! What a great weekend and an incredible run – the Cubs/Cardinals under and Twins (however you chose to play them) got there. I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites | Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts | White Sox: 20 consecutive losses
  • The Athletics have been performing exceptionally well as home favorites. JP Sears has shown solid performance recently with a 3.7 ERA and a 3.95 ERA over the last 30 days, with one poor outing against the Astros as an outlier. This may seem like a straightforward pick, but the indicators clearly favor the Athletics to play on the run-line or include them as a parlay piece.
    
    
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over | L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
  • Logan Allen is making his first start since July 6. His season-long stats are concerning, with a 5.67 ERA and 5.45 FIP, and there may be rust coming into play against the Diamondbacks’ hot offense. The over seems to be a strong play here.
    

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals

• Cardinals: 13-4 NRFI as a home underdog.
• Cardinals: 14-3 RL (+1.5) as a home underdog.
• In L30 days, Mets: 19-5 NRFI.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians

• Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’
  
  
  
• Diamondbacks: 7 of last 8 previous games have gone over.
• L14 days, Diamondbacks: 5-0 O/U vs. LHP.
• Guardians: 13-4-1 F5 O/U and 12-5-1 O/U when Logan Allen starts.

Cincinnati Reds @ Miami Marlins

• Marlins: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘4’ as an underdog.
• Marlins: 0-4 F5 ML as home underdogs when Roddery Munoz starts.
• Reds: 0-4-1 F5 ML when Nick Martinez starts.
• In L30 days, Reds: 9-2-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

• Nationals: 6-15-1 F5 ML and 6-16 ML when Patrick Corbin starts.
• Nationals: 29-12 NRFI as home underdogs.

Minnesota Twins @ Chicago Cubs

• Twins: 15-6 ML as road favorites vs. RHP.
• Baller System active to play on Twins: Back team off a win when they used a lot of pitchers (lower-volume variation)

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

• Rangers: 6-15 ML when Andrew Heaney starts.
• In L30 days, Rangers: 14-6-1 O/U vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Astros: 0-7 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

• Royals: 7-1 ML as home favorites when Brady Singer starts.
• Royals: 1-6-1 F5 O/U as home favorites when Singer starts.

Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics

• Athletics: 12-3 ML as home favorites.
• Athletics: 5-14-2 F5 O/U when JP Sears starts.
• Athletics: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
• White Sox: 0-6 ML as a road underdog when Jonathan Cannon starts.
• White Sox: lost 20 consecutive games.
  

Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers

• Phillies: 15-3-4 F5 ML when Aaron Nola starts.
• Dodgers: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘7’.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

Tonight’s showdown at Progressive Field promises excitement as the Baltimore Orioles take on the Cleveland Guardians. With Dean Kremer on the mound for Baltimore and Carlos Carrasco pitching for Cleveland, the Orioles look to capitalize on their recent success against right-handed pitchers.

Pitching Matchup: Kremer vs. Carrasco

Dean Kremer has proven to be an effective starter for Baltimore this season. Utilizing a mix of pitches, including a 37% 4-seam fastball, 27% cutter, 13% sinker, and 10% curveball, Kremer has held opposing hitters in check. The Guardians rank 15th, 29th, 21st, and 15th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Notably, right-handed starters have posted a stellar 2.24 ERA against Cleveland over the past 30 days, highlighting the Guardians’ struggles against such pitchers.

Carlos Carrasco, on the other hand, has had a rough patch recently. Over the last 15 days, he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 9 innings pitched. Carrasco’s primary arsenal includes a 26% 4-seam fastball, 26% slider, 25% changeup, and 17% sinker. However, his fastball velocity ranks in the 13th percentile, making it more hittable. The Orioles rank 3rd, 14th, 6th, and 24th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Additionally, pitchers with similar repertoires to Carrasco have posted a 4.71 ERA against Baltimore over the last year.

Carrasco has struggled significantly this season, ranking among the worst in several key pitching metrics. He is third-worst in home runs per fly ball (HR/FB), fourth-worst in home runs per nine innings (HR/9), third-worst in opponent batting average, and tenth-worst in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). His career record as a home underdog stands at a disappointing 2-21.

Orioles’ Offensive Edge

The Orioles have been an unstoppable force against right-handed pitchers on the road this season, leading the league in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). They also rank fourth in both metrics over the last 30 days. In contrast, the Guardians have struggled mightily against right-handers at home, ranking 27th in wOBA and wRC+ over the past month.

A key player to watch is Gunnar Henderson, who has been outstanding against sliders, a key pitch in Carrasco’s arsenal. Henderson leads the league with a .756 slugging percentage on sliders this season. Carrasco has allowed a .486 slugging percentage on sliders, ranking third-highest among qualified pitchers. Henderson’s prowess extends to facing right-handed pitchers with low strikeout rates like Carrasco; he has a .647 slugging percentage in his last 196 plate appearances against such pitchers. Furthermore, Henderson boasts a .533 batting average against the Guardians this season, making him a critical factor in tonight’s game.

Prediction

Given the Orioles’ offensive strength against right-handed pitching and Carrasco’s recent struggles, betting on the Orioles ML (-110, Caesars) seems a favorable option, as they aim to capitalize on their advantages and continue their strong form against right-handed pitching.