Category: Betting

Coors Field will hear the Birdsong

Posted on by Dominic Tremblay
  • Date: Sunday, July 21, 2024
  • Game: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
  • Start Time: 03:10 PM ET

Andy Kuno / San Francisco Giants / Getty Images



Today’s highlighted matchup will feature the Giants and the Rockies in Coors Field. Ryan Feltner enters the game with a season ERA hovering around 5.40, struggling with consistency and control (C- rating, based on my model). His home splits are even worse with an ERA of 6.75. Despite showing flashes of potential, Feltner has been prone to giving up the long ball. He has a fly ball rate of 33.9% and a 33.6% hard contact rate, a dangerous tendency in Coors Field.

On the other side, Hayden Birdsong has been a revelation for the Giants, boasting a solid 3.72 ERA. Birdsong’s ability to miss bats (COL are 4th in K% vs RHP with 25.4%), coupled with his excellent command (B rating, based on my model), makes him a tough opponent. Hitters facing Birdsong are batting .239 with 17 hits in 19.1 innings of work allowing only 3 homers so far this season.

With a clear pitching advantage in Birdsong and a more reliable, potent lineup, the Giants are well-positioned against the Rockies. Look for Birdsong to neutralize the Rockies’ hitters early and the Giants’ offense to capitalize on Feltner’s weaknesses.

Notes: Rockies are 5-14 SU when Ryan Feltner starts this season and 0-5 SU in the last game of a series. Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman might stand out for the Giants today.

Top MLB Betting Trends To Watch | Sunday, July 21

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers! Hope everyone is having a great weekend. I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

  • Cardinals: 9-1 to the under as road underdogs when Miles Mikolas starts | Braves: 7-1 to the under when Spencer Schwellenbach starts
    • There are nice aligning trends supporting the under on both sides. Furthermore, the Braves are 21-11-2 to the under at home vs. RHP.
  • Marlins: 4-14-1 F5 ML when Trevor Rogers starts (1-7 F5 ML as home underdogs) | In L30 days, Marlins: 2-14 F5 ML vs. RHP
    • Fading Rogers and the Marlins in the F5? Sign me up!
  • Royals: 15-5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP | White Sox: 7-31 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP
    • We’ll ride this one again. With Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals, we want to use this opportunity to include the Royals in a parlay.

Here are the rest of today’s trends:


St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

  • Cardinals: 9-1 to the under as road underdogs when Miles Mikolas starts.
  • Cardinals: 14-6 to the NRFI when Mikolas starts.
  • Braves: 7-1 to the under when Spencer Schwellenbach starts.


Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

  • In L30 days, Reds: 19-6 NRFI.
  • In L30 days, Reds: 8-2 RL (+1.5) as underdogs.


Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Pirates: 17-6 RL (+1.5) as home underdogs.
  • In L30 days, Pirates: 19-7 NRFI.


Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

  • Yankees: 22-6-3 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

  • Blue Jays: 14-5 to the over when Kevin Gausman starts.
  • In L30 days, Blue Jays: 16-3-1 to the over vs. RHP. (8-0 to the over in L14 days).
  • Blue Jays: 24-9 NRFI as home favorites.
  • In L14 days, Tigers: 7-0 RL (+1.5) as underdogs.
  • Tigers: won 8 of their previous 9 games.


San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians

  • Padres: 23-8 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
  • Padres: 8-0 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs when Michael King starts.
  • Guardians: 6-0 ML and 5-0-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Ben Lively starts.


New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

  • Marlins: 17-5-1 to the over as home underdogs vs. RHP.
  • Marlins: 4-15 ML and 4-14-1 F5 ML when Trevor Rogers starts (1-7 F5 and full game ML as home underdogs).
  • In L30 days, Marlins: 2-14 F5 ML vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Mets: 18-6 NRFI.


Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

  • White Sox: 7-31 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
  • Royals: 15-4-1 F5 under as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • Royals: 15-5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • Royals: 13-5-2 F5 ML (5-0 F5 ML as home favorites) when Seth Lugo starts.
  • Royals: 15-5 NRFI when Lugo starts.


Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins

  • Brewers: 5-14 ML when Aaron Civale starts (1-6 as road underdogs).


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

  • Diamondbacks: 7-1-2 F5 over as road underdogs vs. LHP.
  • Diamondbacks: 26-13 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
  • Cubs: 15-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts (6-1 ML as home favorites).
  • Cubs: 25-9 NRFI as home favorites.
  • Cubs: 9-25 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.


Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

  • Orioles: 6-1 F5 under as road favorites vs. LHP.
  • Orioles: 30-14 NRFI on the road.


San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

  • Rockies: 5-14 ML and 14-5 to the over when Ryan Feltner starts.
  • In L30 days, Rockies: 10-3 RL (+1.5) as home underdogs.


Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

  • Athletics: 7-1 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Red Sox: 19-8-1 F5 over vs. LHP.
  • Dodgers: 5-0 F5 ML as home favorites when James Paxton starts.


Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

  • Mariners: 29-10 NRFI as home favorites.
  • In L30 days, Mariners: 3-12 RL (-1.5) as favorites (0-6 RL as home favorites).
  • In L30 days, Astros are 10-2 RL (+1.5) as an underdog.
  • Astros: 14-4 to the under when Ronel Blanco starts.



Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

Rays vs. Yankees: Taj Bradley’s Road Struggles

Posted on by Dominic Tremblay
  • Date: Saturday, July 20, 2024
  • Game: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
  • Start Time: 01:05 PM ET


Editor’s Note: I am happy to introduce a talented contributor to our team: Dominic Tremblay. Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

– Austin


In today’s matchup between the Rays and the Yankees, home/away splits will play a big role as Taj Bradley will be facing Nestor Cortes in Yankee Stadium in an afternoon game (1:05 PM ET first pitch). Let’s dive into each starter’s splits and stats.

The Rays will send Taj Bradley in the bump. He is not the same pitcher when starting on the road with a 6.20 ERA and a .309 OBA compared to 1.50 ERA and a .160 OBA at home. Bradley is 0-6 SU F5 as an underdog in his short career and 0-4 SU F5 as an away dog this season. He is also due for negative regression suggested by his 3.88 xERA compared to a 2.90 ERA. Also, the fact that he’ll face a good lineup in a home run-friendly park, where his 2.7 HR/9 and 42.4% fly ball rate on the road should play against him.

On the other side, Nestor Cortes will start for the Yankees, and he’s been excellent at home with a 1.81 ERA, a .190 OBA and a 0.8 HR/9.

Yankees are ranked 3rd with 3.13 F5 runs scored at home and 3rd in F5 runs allowed this season. In comparison, the Rays are 24th with 2.09 F5 runs scored on the road. The Rays are struggling with RISP lately as they are dead last in MLB, batting just .103 in this situation over the last 2 weeks.