Author: Giulio Lavini

Cardinals vs. Dolphins: Expect points with Tua and Kyler

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins
Date: October 27th, 2024, 1 PM ET

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Game Analysis & Trends:

This Sunday, we’ve got a high-potential matchup as Tua Tagovailoa returns for the Dolphins and Kyler Murray looks to build on a win as an underdog. With both offenses ready to bring some firepower, this game sets up nicely for a higher-scoring affair. Let’s dive into some key trends and angles:

Key Trends (2024 Season):

  • When a team is coming off a game against the Chargers or Chiefs, the over has cashed in 9 out of 10 times (9-1).
  • The over is 6-3 in games where the total is 44 or higher, and one of the teams is coming off a road loss with a poor win percentage.
  • In situations where the road underdog is coming off a home win as a dog, the over is a perfect 6-0.
  • In games with a total set at 46 or higher, where both teams are coming off an under, the average total points scored is 51.8.

With these trends in mind and the return of key playmakers, I expect both teams to put points on the board and turn this into a shootout.

Pick: Over 46

Dolphins vs. Titans: Low Scoring Showdown (NFL Week 4)

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

Game: Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
Date: Monday Night Football, Week 4


We’ve got another notably low total for this matchup, and for good reason. The Dolphins (1-2) take on the winless Titans (0-3) in what shapes up to be a strong betting opportunity. Neither team is firing on all cylinders, and with both offenses struggling, this game presents a good chance to focus on the total.


Key Trends (since 2018 unless noted):

  • When the total is set at 36.5 or less, the under has cashed in 32 of 42 games, with a strong 32-9-1 O/U record.
  • In games where the total is 36.5 or less and the home team is coming off a road loss, the under is 15-3.
  • When the total is 36.5 or less and the road team is coming off a home loss, the under hits at an impressive 11-3 rate.
  • In non-divisional games where the total is set at 36.5 or less, and the home team is an underdog receiving 2.5 points or fewer, the under has a solid 13-5 O/U record.
  • The Titans haven’t scored more than 17 points in any game this season, and the Dolphins have failed to score more than 10 points since Tua’s injury.


With two struggling teams, a low total, and little confidence in either offense, the under is definitely worth a look here. While some books are still showing 37, it’s smart to jump on this early before the line moves.


Pick: Under 36.5

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Red Sox vs. Rays: Expect fireworks in Tampa

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Date: September 17, 2024
Time: 6:50 PM ET

Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (R)
Rays: Shane Baz (R)


The Red Sox and Rays kick off their series tonight with a total set at 7.5, which opens up a promising betting opportunity.

Key Trends (since 2024 unless otherwise noted):

  • When two teams are coming off road losses and facing each other in the first game of a series with a total of 7.5 or less, the over has hit in 9 out of 10 games (9-1).
  • The Red Sox are 7-2 to the over in the first game of a series when playing as road favorites.
  • The Rays have a 7-4 record to the over at home in the first game of a series following a loss.
  • In divisional matchups, when the Rays are underdogs with a total of 7.5 or less, they are 5-0-1 to the over.
  • Divisional matchups between two teams coming off losses are 7-3 to the over when the total is set at 7.5.


These trends suggest a strong lean towards the over in tonight’s game, given the recent performance patterns of both teams in similar situations.


Pick: Over 7.5

Steelers vs. Broncos: Expect Low-Scoring matchup

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

The Money Baller team would like to introduce Giulio Lavini as a contributor to the team! Giulio has been engaging with us and providing awesome stats and insights and wanted to share that with the rest of you. Here’s a little bit about him:

My name is Giulio—a technical handicapper who leverages data, trends, and numbers to make informed betting decisions. I use SDQL to dive deep into analytics, but I also actively watch and follow the sports I bet on, including staying up-to-date with player and team news. By combining statistical insights with real-time information, I aim to stay ahead of the game.


Click here for the Steelers vs. Broncos Matchup Page


Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
Date: September 15, 2024
Time: 4:25 PM ET



We have a notably low total for this game, and for good reason.


Trends (since 2018 unless noted):

• Low Totals Favor the Under: When the total is set at 36.5 or less, the under has hit in 30 out of 40 games (30-9-1 record).


• Home Underdogs in Specific Situations: The under is 22-6-1 when the home underdog is receiving 2.5 points or fewer, coming off a road loss, and the total is less than 43.


• Non-Divisional Games with Low Totals: In non-divisional games where the total is 36.5 or less and the home team is getting 2.5 points or fewer, the under has a 12-5 record.


• Steelers’ Recent Trends: Pittsburgh is 12-4 to the under as a road favorite (6-1-1 to the under after covering their previous game).


• Broncos as Home Underdogs: Denver is 14-8 to the under when playing as a home underdog. Given these strong defensive trends and the historical data supporting low-scoring outcomes in similar situations, the under appears to be the favorable play for this matchup.


• One Baller System active on the UNDER: For Baller Access members, you can see this active on the Steelers vs. Broncos Matchup Page.



Pick: Under 36.5