Author: Austin Wang

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Sunday, August 18

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. The featured plays went 1-2 yesterday. Mystics 1H and Aces ATS were a loss, but the Sky came through with a clutch cover to prevent a disaster.

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Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream

  • Dream: 0-8 1H ATS as home underdogs.
  • Dream: 1-7 Team Total O/U as home underdogs.


Our base model favors the Sun, and there are multiple Baller Systems active that also support playing on the Sun. Given the Dream’s poor performance in the first half as home underdogs, we’re backing the Sun 1H -4.5 (-110, Caesars) today.

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Los Angeles Sparks @ Las Vegas Aces

  • Aces: 3-11 1H O/U as home favorites.
  • Teams on the second game of B2B are 14-3 O/U this season.


Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, a situation that historically favors the over. We’ve seen defenses struggle with fatigue in these spots, leading to higher scoring. The total has already steamed higher on Sunday morning, and we think LA/LVA over 171.5 is worth considering.



Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever

  • Fever: 18-9 O/U.


The Fever have consistently hit the over, while the Storm have been more of an under team. With a Baller System active on the under, we’re opting to pass on this game.


Chicago Sky @ Phoenix Mercury

  • Sky: 6-2 1H ATS as road underdogs.
  • Teams on the second game of B2B are 14-3 O/U this season.


Two angles stand out here. First, the Sky are on the second game of a back-to-back, a scenario that has been a strong indicator for the over. Additionally, there’s a Baller System active on the over for rematches within a week where the total has increased from the previous game. The last game closed at 162.5 and went well under; yet, this game’s total being set at 166 is telling. Chennedy Carter’s presence will be a boost for the Sky’s offense, but expect their defense to struggle in the second game of a B2B. We think the CHI/PHX over 167 is an interesting look.

Furthermore, there are two Baller Systems active on the Sky. Our observation is that the Sky have been a much better first-half team. They are 6-2 1H ATS as road underdogs, and being on the second game of a B2B, we like the Sky 1H +4.5 (-110, Caesars) before fatigue sets in during the second half.

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Saturday, August 17

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. The featured plays went 3-0 yesterday (Storm 1H -4.5, Fever/Mercury over 174, and Sun Team Total Over 83.5) with ease!

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Minnesota Lynx @ Washington Mystics

  • Mystics: 18-6-2 1H ATS (8-2 1H ATS as home underdogs).


Betting on the Mystics 1H has become an auto-bet, as they’ve consistently covered this all season. Remarkably, they’ve done this largely without two of their best players, Shakira Austin and Brittany Sykes. With both of them healthy, we expect their first half successes to continue and we’re backing WAS 1H +3 (-115, DraftKings).



New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

  • Aces: 6-1 ATS with more rest than their opponent
  • Aces: 3-10 1H O/U as home favorites.

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The situational factors strongly favor the Aces in today’s marquee matchup. Despite a relatively shaky season for the defending champions, they’ve thrived in situations where they’re more rested than their opponents. Additionally, backing the home team in a clash of elite teams has historically been a profitable angle. We love the Aces -3 (-110, DraftKings), and would even take them up to -3.5.



Chicago Sky @ Los Angeles Sparks

  • Sky: 8-17 1H O/U.

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From a trend perspective, not much stands out, but we have a Baller System active on the Sky, and our model/algorithm also favors the Sky to cover. If Chennedy Carter is ruled in (she was a late scratch last game due to illness), we like the Sky up to -3. Carter was recently vocal about being ranked below Caitlyn Clark in the latest ESPN player rankings, which should add some extra motivation to her game.

WNBA Betting Trends and Insights – Friday, August 16

Posted on by Austin Wang

Today’s WNBA Betting trends. I’m experimenting with something new today, so let me know if you have any feedback!

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Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream

  • Dream: 0-7 Team Total O/U as home underdogs.
  • Dream: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs.
  • 2 Baller Systems active to play on the Storm.


With the trends and 1H splits in mind, the Storm 1H -4.5 appears to be an appealing pick today. Additionally, there are 2 Baller Systems active supporting the Storm, and I expect a strong surge from this team as they finish off the season.


Phoenix Mercury @ Indiana Fever

  • Fever: 5-0 O/U as home favorites.
  • Fever: 5-1 O/U with more rest than opponents.
  • 1 Baller System active on the over.


With 1 Baller System active on the over, the Fever/Mercury over 174 is an angle we like today. The Fever have been an over team all season, and the Mercury are on the second game of a back-to-back, a situation where we’ve seen defense struggle. Teams in the second game of a back-to-back are 13-3 to the over this season.


Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings

  • Wings: 6-1 O/U as home underdogs.
  • Wings’ opponents are 21-3-1 Team Total O/U.
  • Sun: 6-2 Team Total O/U as road favorites.


That 21-3-1 Team Total Over stat is incredible. While we’re not thrilled that DiJonai Carrington is sitting for the Sun, they still might not have trouble putting up points against the Wings’ abysmal defense.

Top MLB Betting Trends & Insights | Monday, August 12

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello everyone! Welcome to our ‘Free Preview’ day. For those new to the site, this is a daily article we provide to our premium Baller Access subscribers. Our team went 2-0 yesterday with the featured trends! Orioles F5 RL and the Mariners/Mets NRFI were a hit.

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I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:


Featured Trends:

  • Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts | Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
    • Several factors point to value on the Cubs moneyline (-120, ESPN Bet) tonight. Shota Imanaga has been solid this season with a 3.06 ERA. In contrast, Ben Lively has a 3.59 ERA but a concerning 4.75 FIP, suggesting he could be due for some negative regression. The Cubs are also backed by a strong Baller Matchup Rating of 6, and supported by an active Baller System that favors teams in the first game of a road, non-divisional series when on at least a two-game winning streak.


  • Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts
  • Rays: 4-12 O/U (1-8 O/U at home) when Taj Bradley starts.
    • The trends heavily favor the under in this matchup, with two solid pitchers on the mound. The table below highlights both pitchers’ stats over the last 30 days. Under 7.5 (-120, ESPN Bet) is the most favorable price we see out there.


  • Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML as home favorites vs. RHP | 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024
  • Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
    • Keep an eye on this game, as some books have been slow to release lines, suggesting there could be a pitching change. If that happens, the Baller Matchup Rating could change. If not, the surging Diamondbacks make a great parlay piece or run-line candidate.


  • Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts | 20-10-3 F5 ML vs. LHP.
    • The Braves have been underwhelming lately, but with Chris Sale on the mound and their strong record against left-handed pitchers, we think they have a good chance to overcome the red-hot Blake Snell and the Giants. Braves F5 ML (-105, BetRivers) is a value play for today.



Here are the rest of today’s trends:


Chicago Cubs @ Cleveland Guardians

  • Cubs: 17-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts.
  • Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’.
  • Guardians: 25-9 ML vs. LHP.


St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

  • Cardinals: 6-1 ML as road favorites vs. LHP.
  • Cardinals: 6-1 ML and O/U as road favorites when Sonny Gray starts.
  • Reds: 6-16-1 O/U when Andrew Abbott starts.
  • Reds: 2-8 O/U as home underdogs vs. RHP.


Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

  • Astros: 0-6-1 O/U as road favorites when Framber Valdez starts.
  • In L30 days, Astros: 2-13-2 F5 O/U vs. RHP.
  • Rays: 4-12 O/U when Taj Bradley starts.


Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox

  • Red Sox: 15-5-1 F5 O/U when Brayan Bello starts.
  • Red Sox: 17-6-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins

  • Royals: 9-20 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
  • Royals: 24-10 NRFI as a road underdog.


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

  • In L30 days, Brewers: 1-6-1 F5 ML vs. LHP.


New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox

  • Yankees, despite being a top team, struggle against lefties. They are 10-14-6 F5 ML vs. LHP.
  • White Sox are 1-23 ML since July 12, 2024.


Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

  • Blue Jays: 5-0 O/U when Bowden Francis starts.


Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Diamondbacks: 17-7 ML and 14-5-5 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • Diamondbacks: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’ (assuming Cal Quantrill and Brandon Pfaadt are starting)
  • Diamondbacks: 15-3 ML since July 23, 2024.


Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres

  • Pirates: 31-13 NRFI as road underdogs.
  • Pirates: 29-15 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
  • Padres: 15-33 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.


Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

  • Braves: 16-4-1 F5 ML when Chris Sale starts.
  • Braves: 15-3 NRFI as road underdogs.
  • Braves: 20-10-3 F5 ML and 21-12 ML vs. LHP.


Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)