Welcome to a special edition Money Baller NBA Cup Report. We went 4-2 on our featured picks on Sunday on the NBA Baller Report and 2-0 in the NFL Week 14 Newsletter!
Published: Monday, December 9, 2024 – 11:14 PM CST
The Magic continue to struggle in the first half, holding an 8-18 1H ATS record overall and an even worse 1-7 1H ATS as road underdogs.
Key Absences: The Magic will be without key players Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, which significantly impacts their offensive firepower and versatility.
Bucks Dynamics: Expect Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo to step up in a meaningful game.
TMB Thoughts: With the Magic’s poor 1H record and the absence of two of their best players, the Bucks are in an ideal spot to take early control. We recommend playing Bucks 1H ATS, with confidence up to Bucks 1H -4.5. No official lines were posted at the time of writing, but this setup aligns strongly with first-half trends and player availability.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Mavericks Trends: Dallas has been strong against the spread, holding a 15-9 ATS record this season and excelling as an underdog of 2.5 points or more with a 6-1 ATS mark. Additionally, they have consistently hit overs in this spot, going 7-0 O/U and 7-0 on Team Total Overs as a road underdog.
Thunder Trends: Oklahoma City also has an impressive 14-8-1 ATS record.
Game Dynamics: A Baller System identifies unders as a strong play in matchups between elite conference teams. Despite Dallas’s recent trend toward overs, both teams’ defensive capabilities and the stakes of this matchup suggest a lower-scoring affair.
TMB Thoughts: In what could be a tightly contested game between two of the West’s best teams, we support the Under 231.5. The line feels inflated for teams that can buckle down defensively in high-stakes games. Also, we lean backing the Thunder -4, an elite home team seeking revenge.
Welcome to the Part 2 of NFL Week 13 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 1 picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 20-17-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Browns: 2-9 Team Total O/U this season
Texans: 10-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-7 full game ATS)
Titans: 3-10 ATS in L13 road games.
Titans: 2-8-1 ATS this season.
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
Panthers: 9-1-1 1H O/U this season.
Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
Eagles: 2-9 1H O/U this season.
Chargers: 9-1-1 1H ATS this season.
Chargers: 7-1 ATS as favorites this season.
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-10 O/U this season.
Not active this week (or already passed)
Cowboys: 2-12 ATS in L14 games as underdogs.
Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
Lions: 10-2 1H ATS this season.
Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
II. NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
For the second consecutive week, scoring surged, with Week 12 games averaging 47.7 points per game (PPG), up from Week 11’s 46.8 PPG. This has pushed the season-long average to 45.3 PPG. Overs dominated last week, going 10-3, while the median scoring hit an impressive 51 PPG. Despite this upward trend, there are reasons to expect a shift back toward lower-scoring games as the NFL season enters its late stages.
Heading into Week 13, the season’s overall record for totals stands at 94-83-3 to the over. Week 13’s average total of 45.2 has increased week-over-week, aligning with season-long scoring averages. Notably, the four early games in Week 13 have gone 3-1 to the under, suggesting a potential cooling of the scoring spike.
Betting Strategies for Totals
To adapt to the late-season environment, consider the following:
Target Inflated Totals Recent scoring spikes may inflate totals. Look for games where weather, pace, or situational factors hint at an under despite a higher line.
Analyze Pace and Red Zone Efficiency Teams with slow pace or poor red-zone efficiency are prime under candidates. Their inability to convert drives into touchdowns keeps total points low.
Monitor Weather Early Weather conditions impact totals closer to kickoff, but tracking forecasts early can uncover valuable opportunities before the market adjusts.
While recent weeks have seen a scoring resurgence, late-season NFL football trends suggest that unders could regain prominence. Familiar matchups, conservative playoff strategies, and unpredictable weather all favor lower-scoring outcomes. As the market reacts to these fluctuations, sharp bettors can exploit value by aligning with these factors.
Stay disciplined, stay informed, and capitalize on the evolving landscape in Week 13 and beyond.
III. Fading home teams off an OT win
One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-32-4 record (62.8% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.
This trend has gone 3-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Vikings (play on the Cardinals +3.5) in Week 13.
IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-2 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Texans (vs. Jaguars) in Week 13.
V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Titans (fade the Commanders) in Week 13.
VI. Post-Thanksgiving NFL Games: A Betting Trend to Watch
Sunday after Thanksgiving ATS Trends: Since 2012, home teams have performed exceptionally well on the Sunday following Thanksgiving, with a strong 86-54-1 ATS (61.4%) record. The trend is even more pronounced for home favorites, who boast an impressive 49-24-0 ATS (67.1%) record during this period.
Impacted Teams in 2024: In Week 13, the following teams fit the profile of home favorites:
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Washington Commanders
Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals
Why the Trend Matters
This trend may reflect the advantages of playing at home after a short preparation week. Teams traveling over Thanksgiving face unique challenges, such as disrupted schedules and holiday distractions, which can disproportionately impact visiting teams.
Key Takeaway: While trends like these shouldn’t be the sole determinant of a wager, they can serve as a useful starting point. The Sunday after Thanksgiving has consistently favored home teams, especially those laying points. Keep an eye on the listed teams to see if the trend holds for another year.
This trend disputes some of the Baller Systems mentioned earlier.
VII. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends
Favorites Before a Bye Week: Since the start of the 2022 season, favorites heading into a bye week have performed exceptionally well against the spread (ATS), boasting a 34-12 record (73.9%). This trend has continued into the 2024 season with a 7-3 ATS record, highlighting the confidence and urgency with which these teams play before a well-earned break.
In Week 13 of 2024, this trend applies to the following teams:
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders
Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Divisional Matchups Before a Bye Week: Since 2015, teams playing divisional opponents before a bye week have an impressive 67-43 ATS (60.9%) record. These games often carry heightened importance, leading to focused performances. However, this trend hasn’t been as successful in 2024, with a 1-2-1 ATS record thus far.
This trend is active for the Houston Texans in Week 13, as they face the Denver Broncos. Despite the weaker performance of this subset in 2024, the broader trend remains worth considering.
Why the Trend Matters
Teams entering a bye week often play with extra intensity, aiming to capitalize on their final opportunity to secure a win before a break. This urgency is amplified for favorites, as they are typically better-equipped to dominate in such scenarios. Divisional matchups, in particular, add another layer of competitiveness, as teams aim to improve their standing within the division.
NFL Week 13 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans have been one of the NFL’s most reliable 1H teams this season at 10-2 1H ATS. They consistently establish early leads, showcasing discipline and efficiency in the opening two quarters. Somehow, they can’t seem to put it together in the second half.
Houston’s previous game saw a lack of discipline, with two turnovers and 11 penalties contributing to their loss against the Tennessee Titans. One of our Baller Systems show that favorites coming off multi-turnover games (as a favorite) tend to respond with sharper, more focused performances. Expect DeMeco Ryans and the Texans to clean up their mistakes and deliver a more composed effort.
Another Baller System active on the Texans states that since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing.
As mentioned above, teams heading into a bye week often perform well, knowing a rest period is on the horizon. Favorites in this scenario have performed exceptionally well against the spread, and this trend is also potent in divisional matchups. The Texans fit this mold.
The Jaguars return from their bye week, but this can often result in a lack of rhythm, especially following the Thanksgiving break. Trevor Lawrence, whether playing or not, faces challenges in this spot. If he starts, rust is likely to impact his effectiveness. If he doesn’t play, it is a nice opportunity to fade Mac Jones.
The Texans’ strong track record in first halves and their situational advantages make them an attractive option. Betting Houston at -2.5 for the first half offers a focused approach to capitalize on their strengths. Additionally, Houston’s full-game ATS line also warrants consideration for those confident in their bounce-back potential.
Pick: Texans 1H -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
The Philadelphia Eagles enter this matchup riding high on a seven-game winning streak, but their run may meet its end against the Baltimore Ravens. While Philadelphia’s winning streak is impressive on the surface, much of it has come against subpar competition. Their relatively easy schedule raises questions about how they’ll handle a step up in class.
The Ravens had a dominant win over the Los Angeles Chargers, showcasing both offensive efficiency and situational mastery. They converted 2-of-2 red zone opportunities and were a perfect 3-of-3 on fourth downs, instilling some confidence into this matchup.
Baltimore’s rushing defense, ranked 8th in DVOA, is particularly noteworthy. It’s well-suited to limiting the impact of Saquon Barkley, who is coming off a historic performance and is due for regression.
As mentioned above: Home favorites during Thanksgiving week have historically performed well (49-24-0 ATS (67.1%) record since 2012), as have teams favored heading into a bye week (34-12 record (73.9%) since 2022). These trends align perfectly with Baltimore’s current position.
Baltimore has the tools to halt Philadelphia’s momentum, using their efficient offense, disciplined play, and strategic positioning to gain the upper hand. Expect a hard-fought game, but the Ravens have the edge in both preparation and execution, giving them a strong chance to hand the Eagles their first loss in over two months.
Hello Ballers! 3-3 on yesterday’s featured trends. Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:
Published: Sunday, November 24, 2024 10:45 AM CT
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics
TMB thoughts: Neither team has been reliable against the spread this season. However, the Timberwolves have some slight situational advantages, which lead us to lean toward Timberwolves +8. That said, the edge isn’t strong enough for a confident play, so we’ll ultimately pass on this one.
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers
Wizards: 3-111H ATS
TMB thoughts: The Wizards have been a consistent 1H fade. If you like the Pacers, we think the 1H is the way to go. We’re hesitant to trust them given the variability of their performances.
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat
Mavericks: 5-0 1H ATS and 4-1 ATS as road underdogs.
Mavericks: 7-2 ATS in games where Luka Doncic sits and Kyrie Irving plays.
Heat: 1-4 ATS at home.
TMB thoughts: The trends lean toward the Mavericks. However, situational spots/rest advantage favor Miami, making this a challenging game to evaluate. The Mavericks’ recent success without Luka, including outright wins against the Nuggets and Thunder, makes them intriguing.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Clippers: 10-6-1 ATS
76ers: 4-11 ATS
76ers: 0-7 1H O/U at home
Clippers: 0-4 1H O/U on first game of B2B.
Clippers: 5-11-1 1H O/U
TMB thoughts: With key players Joel Embiid and Paul George out, this game leans heavily toward a slower pace and lower scoring. The Clippers’ strong defensive presence (5th in Defensive Rating) combined with the 76ers’ offensive struggles (28th in Offensive Rating) backs a 1H Under 103 play.
On the spread, the Clippers’ recent form and overall ATS record (10-6-1) provide a lean to Clippers -2 (no higher than -2). The line feels light for a surging Clippers squad, and they’re well-positioned to cover against a depleted 76ers team.
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers: 13-4 ATS (7-2 ATS as home favorites)
Raptors: 11-5 ATS
TMB Thoughts: Both teams have excelled ATS this season. We have a few Baller Systems and situational spots favoring the Raptors, which may give them an edge to keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
We lean toward Raptors +11.5, as the line appears inflated considering their competitive nature against strong teams. However, given the Cavaliers’ consistent dominance, we’re keeping this as a lean and not an official play.
Hello Ballers! 3-1 on Friday’s featured trends! Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:
Published: Saturday, November 23, 2024 3:59 PM CT
New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz
TMB thoughts: Situational factors point to the Knicks. The Jazz are returning from a long road trip, a scenario where teams often struggle. With 8 of their last 10 games played on the road, fatigue is likely to play a role in what looks like a let-down spot at home. We’re backing Knicks -8.5 in this matchup.
Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks
TMB thoughts: Signs point to fading the Hornets after a grueling OT win where they relied on unsustainable three-point shooting (20/44). Fatigue could be a factor here, especially against a Bucks team that has won 5 of their last 6 games and is seeking revenge for a loss to Charlotte a week ago. While Milwaukee is also on the second game of a back-to-back, they’ve been finding their rhythm. We’re backing Bucks -7.5.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Chicago Bulls
TMB thoughts: Strong signals favor the Grizzlies in this matchup, fading the Bulls in a classic letdown spot. Chicago is coming off a second game of a back-to-back where they won outright as underdogs, often a tough situation to maintain momentum. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have been stellar in the first half, boasting a 12-4 1H ATS record this season. We’re playing Grizzlies 1H -2.5, and we like their chances to cover the full game as well.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets
Rockets hold their opponents’ team total 2-14-1 to the under
TMB thoughts: The Rockets’ elite defense (3rd in Defensive Rating) has been a key factor this season, holding opponents’ team totals to the under in 14 of 17 games (2-14-1). Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers rank 30th in Offensive Rating, further supporting a low-scoring outlook for their offense. We’re backing Blazers Team Total Under 107.5 as the play here.
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs
TMB thoughts: This matchup features one of our favorite Baller Systems, signaling a strong fade on the Warriors. Golden State is in a classic letdown scenario: the second game of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and the fourth game in six nights, all while on the road after a win. With this situational factor in mind, we’re backing Spurs +3 as the play.
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers
TMB thoughts: Multiple systems support the over in this matchup. Both teams are strong offensive units (Lakers 4th, Nuggets 7th in Offensive Rating) and weaker on the defensive end (Lakers 23rd, Nuggets 17th). They also play at an above-average pace (Nuggets 9th, Lakers 13th), creating an environment conducive to scoring. With the Nuggets at 10-4 O/U and the Lakers at 9-6 O/U, the over 235 looks appealing. Another angle to consider: the Lakers Team Total Over119.5, which is a perfect 6-0-1 this season as home favorites.
Hello Ballers! 2-1 on Wednesday’s featured trends. Sorry for the delayed submission today, we are in the middle of a move. As always, NFL Newsletter will be released tomorrow. Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:
Published: Friday, November 22, 2024 5:38 PM CT
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers
Nets: 12-3 1H ATS (10-1 1H ATS as a dog)
76ers: 3-11 ATS (1-5 ATS at home)
TMB thoughts: If you’re backing the Nets, targeting a 1H +2.5 play aligns well with these trends.
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards
Wizards: 2-11 1H ATS (0-6 1H ATS at home)
TMB thoughts: Celtics haven’t been the dominant 1H team as years past, but one thing is for sure: Wizards are an excellent 1H fade. The line is 1H -10, one that is a bit rich for our blood.
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Pacers: 5-1 O/U as an underdog
Baller System on the over: Over system based on recent high scoring
TMB thoughts: With the Pacers hitting the over in five of six games as underdogs and a Baller System supporting the over due to recent high-scoring performances, this matchup has all the signals for a shootout. Both teams have potent offenses, and we like this game to go Over 237.
Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans
Overall, Pelicans are 4-12 ATS this season, but are 6-0 1H ATS as a home underdog
Warriors: 3-10 1H O/U
TMB thoughts: While the Pelicans have struggled overall this season, they’ve been surprisingly strong in the 1H as home underdogs. No action here for now, but these trends are worth noting for those considering early-game plays.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets
Rockets hold their opponents’ team total 2-13-1 to the under
TMB thoughts: The Rockets’ elite defense (3rd in Defensive Rating) has been a key factor this season, holding opponents’ team totals to the under in 13 of 16 games (2-13-1). Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers rank 29th in Offensive Rating, further supporting a low-scoring outlook for their offense. We’re backing Blazers Team Total Under 105.5 as the play here.
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets
Mavericks: 6-0 1H O/U on the road
Nuggets: 10-3 1H O/U
TMB thoughts: Interesting 1H total trends here supporting this matchup, convincing us to consider 1H Over 115.5 if Jokic is ruled in.
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers
TMB thoughts: The Kings have multiple Baller Systems backing them, highlighting favorable situational spots, including revenge and bounce-back potential. With DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis back in the lineup, the Kings are positioned to exploit the Clippers’ vulnerabilities. We like the Kings to cover -3.5 in this matchup.
