Author: Austin Wang

Welcome Ballers! Nice 2-0 to start the NBA season yesterday! See below for a Game 1 system and some notes on a few of the matchups. For games not listed, we didn’t find any meaningful trends/systems worth noting.

Published: Tuesday, October 22, 2024, 11:42 PM CT

Game 1 System

Road underdogs in their first regular season game when they won their previous head-to-head matchup have gone 30-15-1 ATS since the 2011-2012 season. This is active on the Nets and Bulls for Wednesday evening.

Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks

• Hawks: 29-54 ATS (9-18 ATS as home favorites) last season
• Road underdogs in their first regular season game when they won their previous head-to-head matchup have gone 30-15-1 ATS since the 2011-2012 season. This is active on the Nets and Bulls for Wednesday evening.
  
  • TMB thoughts: The Hawks have proven to be one of the least reliable teams ATS, and we don’t believe they deserve to be 8-point favorites here. We’re backing the Nets +8.

Orlando Magic @ Miami Heat

• Heat’s Opponents: 11-21 1H Team Total O/U as home favorites
• Magic: 11-20 1H Team Total O/U as road underdogs
  
  • TMB thoughts: These lines are not always readily available, but the 1H Team Total trends were interesting last season. No lines are available right now, but the Orlando 1H Team Total Under is something to keep an eye on for tomorrow.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors

• Raptors: 3-20 SU and 5-18 ATS as home underdogs.
• Raptors: went 3-21 SU to end the season last year.
  • We’re high on the Cavs this season and see little reason for optimism with the Raptors. If you can get the Cavs -6.5 or better, we’re on board with that play.
    
    

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers

• Bucks: 7-20 1H ATS as road favorites.
  • TMB thoughts: With Embiid out, has the line shifted too far in the Bucks’ favor? We’re passing on this one, but it’s worth noting the Bucks’ struggles in the 1H last season. Philly, playing at home, might come out with extra energy to compensate for their missing star. We’ve seen this “Injured Player Theory” prove successful int he past.

Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans

• Pelicans: 20-11-1 1H ATS as home favorites.
• Road underdogs in their first regular season game when they won their previous head-to-head matchup have gone 30-15-1 ATS since the 2011-2012 season. This is active on the Nets and Bulls for Wednesday evening.
  
  • TMB thoughts: With conflicting trends and both teams integrating new players, we don’t see a clear edge worth backing in this game.
    

Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets

• Rockets: 14-4 ATS as home favorites.
• Hornets: 14-25-1 ATS as road underdogs.
• Hornets: 11-27-2 1H Team Total O/U as road underdogs.
• Rockets: held opponents to 5-13 1H Team Total O/U as home favorites.
  
  • TMB thoughts: The trends clearly favor the Rockets, and the market is high on them as well. We’re backing Rockets -6.5, and off the record, we’ll also be watching for a potential Hornets 1H Team Total Under.
    

Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers

• Warriors: 17-2 SU as road favorites.
  
  • TMB thoughts: We don’t think there’s any action here, but thought this was an interesting trend if you were looking for a ML parlay piece.

🏀 The NBA is Back! 🏀

At Money Baller, we’re as passionate as ever about the NBA! As we transition from the MLB season, we recognize there were some inconsistent posts on some days. So, for the upcoming NBA season, we want to set clear expectations on our content schedule:

Money Baller Reports Schedule:

• Monday: Off
• Tuesday: Off
• Wednesday: NBA Money Baller Report
• Thursday: Off
• Friday: NBA Money Baller Report
• Saturday: NBA Money Baller Report + NFL Weekly Newsletter
• Sunday: NBA Money Baller Report

While this is our regular schedule, keep an eye out for ad-hoc content on off days, especially when there’s a marquee matchup or a key betting edge we spot! We’re also working on new tools to consolidate systems and trends, all on one page, for even greater convenience.

Stay tuned, and let’s make this NBA season the best one yet! 🙌

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While I just mentioned Tuesday is an off day, we couldn’t resist Opening Night:

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics

• Last season, Celtics: 56-25-1 1H ATS (27-13 1H ATS as home favorites).
• Last season, Knicks: 33-45-3 1H ATS
• In last 20 seasons, the defending champions are 17-3 SU on opening night.
• Revenge game for the Celtics
  
  • TMB thoughts: We don’t usually put too much stock in prior season’s trends/stats, but this one was too good to pass up. The Celtics have brought back the band, while the Knicks could face some growing pains with a myriad of newcomers in Mikal Bridges and Karl Anthony-Towns, and could struggle coming out of the gate. I’m on the Celtics 1H -3.
    
    

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers

• Last season, Lakers: 6-0 1H ATS in the playoffs.
• Revenge game for the Lakers
• Revenge game for D’Angelo Russell
• Last season, Timberwolves: 34-46-1 1H ATS in the regular season.
• Last season, Timberwolves: 6-20-1 1H TT Under after the all star break.
  
  • TMB thoughts: The trends favor the Lakers in this matchup, and they have the upper hand with continuity. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are adjusting to new players like Julius Randle, which may create some early challenges. I’m backing the Lakers 1H +0.5.