Welcome to NFL Week 18! A poor 0-2 on last week’s newsletter, bringing our released picks to 27-23-2.
As we enter the final week of the regular season, it’s important to tread carefully. This is the time of year when unexpected rotations, surprise scratches, and unpredictable motivation levels can lead to chaos – or as we like to call it, “shenanigans.” Because of this, our focus shifts more toward the playoffs, where the intensity is higher and the data holds stronger value.
With that in mind, there will be no official picks in this week’s article. Instead, we’ll highlight a few key trends to keep on your radar as the regular season winds down. While it may not be the week to dive in headfirst, these insights can still help guide your decision-making or provide useful context for live betting opportunities.
Let’s dive into some notable trends to monitor.
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NFL Week 18 – Team Trends
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
- Bengals: 5-0 ATS as road favorites
- Cowboys: 1-5 ATS as home underdogs
- Commanders: 4-0 ATS as favorites of 2.5-7
- Panthers: 12-3-1 1H O/U
- Bears: 4-12 1H ATS
- Bills: 13-3 Team Total O/U
- Titans: 2-13-1 ATS this season
- Titans: Opponents’ Team Total 12-3-1 O/U
- Chargers: 6-0 1H and full game ATS as road favorites
- Dolphins: 3-13 1H Team Total O/U this season
- Lions: 12-4 1H ATS this season
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Betting Analysis: Double-digit Favorites
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.8% clip, going 158-120-10 ATS. (8-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 47-32-4 ATS (59.5%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Ravens, Buccaneers, Packers, and Broncos.