Tag: nba

Hello Ballers! 3-3 on yesterday’s featured trends. Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:

Published: Sunday, November 24, 2024 10:45 AM CT

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics

• TMB thoughts: Neither team has been reliable against the spread this season. However, the Timberwolves have some slight situational advantages, which lead us to lean toward Timberwolves +8. That said, the edge isn’t strong enough for a confident play, so we’ll ultimately pass on this one.

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

• Wizards: 3-11 1H ATS
  • TMB thoughts: The Wizards have been a consistent 1H fade. If you like the Pacers, we think the 1H is the way to go. We’re hesitant to trust them given the variability of their performances.
    

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

• Mavericks: 5-0 1H ATS and 4-1 ATS as road underdogs.
• Mavericks: 7-2 ATS in games where Luka Doncic sits and Kyrie Irving plays.
• Heat: 1-4 ATS at home.
  • TMB thoughts: The trends lean toward the Mavericks. However, situational spots/rest advantage favor Miami, making this a challenging game to evaluate. The Mavericks’ recent success without Luka, including outright wins against the Nuggets and Thunder, makes them intriguing.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers

• Clippers: 10-6-1 ATS
• 76ers: 4-11 ATS
  
• 76ers: 0-7 1H O/U at home
• Clippers: 0-4 1H O/U on first game of B2B.
• Clippers: 5-11-1 1H O/U
  
  • TMB thoughts: With key players Joel Embiid and Paul George out, this game leans heavily toward a slower pace and lower scoring. The Clippers’ strong defensive presence (5th in Defensive Rating) combined with the 76ers’ offensive struggles (28th in Offensive Rating) backs a 1H Under 103 play.
    
    On the spread, the Clippers’ recent form and overall ATS record (10-6-1) provide a lean to Clippers -2 (no higher than -2). The line feels light for a surging Clippers squad, and they’re well-positioned to cover against a depleted 76ers team.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

• Cavaliers: 13-4 ATS (7-2 ATS as home favorites)
• Raptors: 11-5 ATS

• TMB Thoughts: Both teams have excelled ATS this season. We have a few Baller Systems and situational spots favoring the Raptors, which may give them an edge to keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
  
  We lean toward Raptors +11.5, as the line appears inflated considering their competitive nature against strong teams. However, given the Cavaliers’ consistent dominance, we’re keeping this as a lean and not an official play.

Hello Ballers! 3-1 on Friday’s featured trends! Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:

Published: Saturday, November 23, 2024 3:59 PM CT

New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz

• TMB thoughts: Situational factors point to the Knicks. The Jazz are returning from a long road trip, a scenario where teams often struggle. With 8 of their last 10 games played on the road, fatigue is likely to play a role in what looks like a let-down spot at home. We’re backing Knicks -8.5 in this matchup.

Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks

• TMB thoughts: Signs point to fading the Hornets after a grueling OT win where they relied on unsustainable three-point shooting (20/44). Fatigue could be a factor here, especially against a Bucks team that has won 5 of their last 6 games and is seeking revenge for a loss to Charlotte a week ago. While Milwaukee is also on the second game of a back-to-back, they’ve been finding their rhythm. We’re backing Bucks -7.5.
  
  

Memphis Grizzlies @ Chicago Bulls

• TMB thoughts: Strong signals favor the Grizzlies in this matchup, fading the Bulls in a classic letdown spot. Chicago is coming off a second game of a back-to-back where they won outright as underdogs, often a tough situation to maintain momentum. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have been stellar in the first half, boasting a 12-4 1H ATS record this season. We’re playing Grizzlies 1H -2.5, and we like their chances to cover the full game as well.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets

• Rockets hold their opponents’ team total 2-14-1 to the under
  • TMB thoughts: The Rockets’ elite defense (3rd in Defensive Rating) has been a key factor this season, holding opponents’ team totals to the under in 14 of 17 games (2-14-1). Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers rank 30th in Offensive Rating, further supporting a low-scoring outlook for their offense. We’re backing Blazers Team Total Under 107.5 as the play here.

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs

• TMB thoughts: This matchup features one of our favorite Baller Systems, signaling a strong fade on the Warriors. Golden State is in a classic letdown scenario: the second game of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and the fourth game in six nights, all while on the road after a win. With this situational factor in mind, we’re backing Spurs +3 as the play.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers

• TMB thoughts: Multiple systems support the over in this matchup. Both teams are strong offensive units (Lakers 4th, Nuggets 7th in Offensive Rating) and weaker on the defensive end (Lakers 23rd, Nuggets 17th). They also play at an above-average pace (Nuggets 9th, Lakers 13th), creating an environment conducive to scoring. With the Nuggets at 10-4 O/U and the Lakers at 9-6 O/U, the over 235 looks appealing. Another angle to consider: the Lakers Team Total Over 119.5, which is a perfect 6-0-1 this season as home favorites.

Hello Ballers! 2-1 on Wednesday’s featured trends. Sorry for the delayed submission today, we are in the middle of a move. As always, NFL Newsletter will be released tomorrow. Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:

Published: Friday, November 22, 2024 5:38 PM CT

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

• Nets: 12-3 1H ATS (10-1 1H ATS as a dog)
• 76ers: 3-11 ATS (1-5 ATS at home)
  • TMB thoughts: If you’re backing the Nets, targeting a 1H +2.5 play aligns well with these trends.

Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards

• Wizards: 2-11 1H ATS (0-6 1H ATS at home)
  • TMB thoughts: Celtics haven’t been the dominant 1H team as years past, but one thing is for sure: Wizards are an excellent 1H fade. The line is 1H -10, one that is a bit rich for our blood.
    

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

• Pacers: 5-1 O/U as an underdog
• Baller System on the over: Over system based on recent high scoring
  • TMB thoughts: With the Pacers hitting the over in five of six games as underdogs and a Baller System supporting the over due to recent high-scoring performances, this matchup has all the signals for a shootout. Both teams have potent offenses, and we like this game to go Over 237.

Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans

• Overall, Pelicans are 4-12 ATS this season, but are 6-0 1H ATS as a home underdog
• Warriors: 3-10 1H O/U
  • TMB thoughts: While the Pelicans have struggled overall this season, they’ve been surprisingly strong in the 1H as home underdogs. No action here for now, but these trends are worth noting for those considering early-game plays.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets

• Rockets hold their opponents’ team total 2-13-1 to the under
  • TMB thoughts: The Rockets’ elite defense (3rd in Defensive Rating) has been a key factor this season, holding opponents’ team totals to the under in 13 of 16 games (2-13-1). Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers rank 29th in Offensive Rating, further supporting a low-scoring outlook for their offense. We’re backing Blazers Team Total Under 105.5 as the play here.

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets

• Mavericks: 6-0 1H O/U on the road
• Nuggets: 10-3 1H O/U
  • TMB thoughts: Interesting 1H total trends here supporting this matchup, convincing us to consider 1H Over 115.5 if Jokic is ruled in.

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers

• TMB thoughts: The Kings have multiple Baller Systems backing them, highlighting favorable situational spots, including revenge and bounce-back potential. With DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis back in the lineup, the Kings are positioned to exploit the Clippers’ vulnerabilities. We like the Kings to cover -3.5 in this matchup.