Tag: nba
Money Baller Christmas Day Report, Dec. 25
🎄 Welcome to the Christmas Edition of The Money Baller Report! 🎄
We hope you’re having a joyful holiday season filled with family, friends, and relaxation. As we wrap up the year, we want to express our gratitude for your continued support and trust. Your engagement and enthusiasm have made 2024 a fantastic year, and we look forward to bringing you even more success and prosperity in 2025.
Happy Holidays from all of us at The Money Baller – let’s close out the year strong!
Published: Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 8:30 AM CST
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NFL: Ravens @ Texans
- Texans: 12-3 1H ATS, 6-9 ATS overall
- Texans: 5-10 Team Total O/U
- Ravens: 12-3 O/U
- Baller System: Playoff rematch unders are in play.
TMB Thoughts: With playoff rematch trends favoring lower scores and the Texans have really struggled with their offense as of late, we’re playing the Under 47 here.
We have nothing meaningful on the Chiefs/Steelers game.
NBA: Spurs @ Knicks
- Spurs: 10-18-1 1H ATS – Slow starts continue to plague San Antonio, struggling to cover early.
- Knicks: 9-4 1H ATS as home favorites – Consistently strong out of the gate at Madison Square Garden.
- TMB Thoughts: Knicks have been a reliable 1H team, and the Spurs’ trends suggest this continues. We like Knicks 1H -5 to take advantage of this early edge.
NBA: Timberwolves @ Mavericks
- Mavericks: 1-11 O/U holding opponents’ team total as home favorites – Dallas locks down at home, keeping opposing scores low.
- Timberwolves: 7-21 Team Total O/U – Minnesota has been unreliable offensively all season long.
- TMB Thoughts: The numbers overwhelmingly point toward the Timberwolves struggling to hit their mark. We’re backing Timberwolves Team Total Under 108, expecting Dallas’ defense to dictate the pace.
NBA: 76ers @ Celtics
- Sixers: 7-20 1H O/U | 9-21 Team Total O/U – Philadelphia trends heavily towards low-scoring starts and full-game team total unders.
- TMB Thoughts: While the trends are clear, the line feels sharp. We’re not seeing enough value to confidently back any angle, so this is a stay-away for now.
NBA: Lakers @ Warriors
- Warriors: 7-21 1H Team Total O/U – Golden State has struggled to find offensive rhythm early in games.
- TMB Thoughts: Despite the trend, there’s not enough conviction to place a bet. We’re passing on this one.
NBA: Nuggets @ Suns
- Nuggets: 1-7 ATS as road favorites – Denver has struggled to cover this season, especially as road favorites.
- Suns: 9-19 ATS | 4-11 ATS at home – Phoenix has been consistently underperformed against market expectations, especially at home.
- TMB Thoughts: We’re leaning Nuggets -2.5, with a Baller System active on the Nuggets and Devin Booker out for the Suns.
Money Baller NBA Report – Saturday, Dec. 21
Money Baller NBA Report – Sunday, Dec. 15
Welcome to a Money Baller NBA Report for Sunday, December 15. A nice 2-0 on the NBA Cup for Saturday! Let’s keep this run going.
Published: Sunday, December 15, 2024 – 11:00 AM CST
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New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers
- Pacers Trends: 9-17 ATS overall, including 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
- Pelicans Trends: 3-10 ATS on the road, struggling to cover.
- Pacers Totals: 17-9 O/U, indicating a tendency for higher-scoring games.
TMB Thoughts: While the trends highlight struggles against the spread for both teams, there’s no compelling angle for a clear play in this matchup. This one’s a pass for us.
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards
- Wizards Trends:
- 7-16 1H ATS (2-10 ATS at home).
- 5-18 1H Team Total O/U, including 1-11 at home.
TMB Thoughts: The trends scream to fade the Wizards in the 1H, but situational factors and Baller Systems point to some angles favoring the Wizards. With the Celtics prone to letdowns in similar spots, we’ll take a cautious approach and sit this one out.
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic
- Magic: 9-1 ATS at home
- Magic: 9-18 1H ATS
TMB thoughts: The Magic continue to thrive ATS at home, showcasing their depth and resilience. However, their 1H struggles and injuries (Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero) are notable. Meanwhile, the Knicks should come out with urgency after their disappointing NBA Cup loss as outright favorites. We’ll back the Knicks 1H -2, capitalizing on the contrast in early-game performance.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
- Wolves: 7-17 Team Total O/U (3-9 TT O/U on the road
TMB thoughts: The Wolves’ offensive struggles are evident, ranking 20th in Offensive Rating. Both teams play at a slower pace, and Minnesota continues to underperform overall. The Wolves Team Total Under 109.5 stands out as the play here.
Portland Trailblazers @ Phoenix Suns
- Blazers: 7-16-2 1H O/U
TMB thoughts: While the Blazers’ trend toward 1H unders is intriguing, it’s not compelling enough to warrant a bet in this matchup. We’ll stay on the sidelines here.
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
- Warriors Trends:
- 6-18 1H Team Total O/U this season.
- 0-4 1H Team Total O/U as home underdogs.
- Mavericks Trends:
- Opponents’ 1H Team Total O/U: 8-17.
TMB Thoughts: The Warriors have been historically slow starters, particularly at home as underdogs. Coupled with the Mavericks’ solid defensive performances in the first half, the Warriors 1H Team Total Under 58 looks like a strong play here.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
- Grizzlies Trends:
- 19-7 1H ATS (5-1 1H ATS as road favorites).
- Opponents’ 1H Team Total: 8-18 O/U.
- Lakers Trends:
- 1-9 Team Total O/U as underdogs.
- 2-8 1H O/U as underdogs.
TMB Thoughts: The numbers strongly favor fading the Lakers’ offense in the first half. With the Grizzlies excelling defensively and the Lakers consistently falling short of their 1H scoring expectations as underdogs, the Grizzlies 1H ATS -2 (up to -2.5) and Lakers 1H Team Total Under 56.5 are recommended plays. Expect a slow start from the Lakers in this spot.
Money Baller NBA Cup Report – Saturday, Dec. 14
Welcome to a special edition Money Baller NBA Cup Report! Today’s report is FREE to the public – thank you for visiting. Use code ‘NBA50’ for 50% off your first payment. Also, we are offering a 3-day free trial for you to get a free preview before you commit.
Published: Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 3:00 PM CST
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Atlanta Hawks:
- The Hawks have been in excellent form, winning 7 of their last 8 games.
- 17-9 O/U record this season.
Milwaukee Bucks:
- The Bucks have struggled to cover at home, with a 9-15 ATS record. The Bucks have underperformed and shown inconsistency all season long.
Baller Systems Analysis
- Two active Baller Systems favor the Under:
- Falling Line System: Targets the Hawks, where the total drops in consecutive games—a signal for defensive adjustments and lower-scoring outcomes.
- Rematch System: Highlights lower-scoring trends in games played within 10 days of a prior matchup, particularly when the total line is set lower than the previous meeting.
TMB Thoughts
- This high-stakes game sees both teams looking to assert dominance in the Eastern Conference, but the trends and systems suggest a tighter defensive battle than expected. Under 232.5 is the play here.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Houston Rockets:
- The Rockets have been strong against the spread (ATS), boasting a 17-8 1H ATS record and a 16-9 overall ATS record this season.
- Their defense has been key to their success, leading to frequent low-scoring first halves.
Oklahoma City Thunder:
- The Thunder have also been reliable ATS, sitting at 15-8-1 overall ATS.
Totals Trends
- Both teams show a tendency for first-half unders:
- Rockets: 9-16 1H O/U
- Thunder: 10-14 1H O/U
Two Baller Systems align on the Under for this matchup:
- Lower Totals System: Targets games where the posted total is notably lower than recent averages, signaling a potential defensive slugfest.
- Elite Matchup System: Focuses on matchups between two top-performing conference teams (win percentage of 60% or greater), which historically trend toward lower-scoring games due to tighter defense and playoff-like intensity.
TMB Thoughts
- Given both teams’ strong trends toward lower-scoring first halves, combined with the active Baller Systems, 1H under 106 is the recommended play. This sets up to be a competitive, defense-first start in the exciting Western Conference NBA Cup quarterfinals.
Money Baller NBA Cup Report – Friday, Dec. 13
Money Baller NBA Cup Report – Wednesday, Dec. 11
Money Baller NBA Cup Report – Tuesday, Dec. 10
Welcome to a special edition Money Baller NBA Cup Report. We went 4-2 on our featured picks on Sunday on the NBA Baller Report and 2-0 in the NFL Week 14 Newsletter!
Published: Monday, December 9, 2024 – 11:14 PM CST
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Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks
- The Magic continue to struggle in the first half, holding an 8-18 1H ATS record overall and an even worse 1-7 1H ATS as road underdogs.
- Key Absences: The Magic will be without key players Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, which significantly impacts their offensive firepower and versatility.
- Bucks Dynamics: Expect Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo to step up in a meaningful game.
- TMB Thoughts: With the Magic’s poor 1H record and the absence of two of their best players, the Bucks are in an ideal spot to take early control. We recommend playing Bucks 1H ATS, with confidence up to Bucks 1H -4.5. No official lines were posted at the time of writing, but this setup aligns strongly with first-half trends and player availability.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
- Mavericks Trends: Dallas has been strong against the spread, holding a 15-9 ATS record this season and excelling as an underdog of 2.5 points or more with a 6-1 ATS mark. Additionally, they have consistently hit overs in this spot, going 7-0 O/U and 7-0 on Team Total Overs as a road underdog.
- Thunder Trends: Oklahoma City also has an impressive 14-8-1 ATS record.
- Game Dynamics: A Baller System identifies unders as a strong play in matchups between elite conference teams. Despite Dallas’s recent trend toward overs, both teams’ defensive capabilities and the stakes of this matchup suggest a lower-scoring affair.
- TMB Thoughts: In what could be a tightly contested game between two of the West’s best teams, we support the Under 231.5. The line feels inflated for teams that can buckle down defensively in high-stakes games. Also, we lean backing the Thunder -4, an elite home team seeking revenge.