Tag: nba

Hello Ballers! 3-3 on yesterday’s featured trends. Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:

Published: Sunday, November 24, 2024 10:45 AM CT

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics

• TMB thoughts: Neither team has been reliable against the spread this season. However, the Timberwolves have some slight situational advantages, which lead us to lean toward Timberwolves +8. That said, the edge isn’t strong enough for a confident play, so we’ll ultimately pass on this one.

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

• Wizards: 3-11 1H ATS
  • TMB thoughts: The Wizards have been a consistent 1H fade. If you like the Pacers, we think the 1H is the way to go. We’re hesitant to trust them given the variability of their performances.
    

Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat

• Mavericks: 5-0 1H ATS and 4-1 ATS as road underdogs.
• Mavericks: 7-2 ATS in games where Luka Doncic sits and Kyrie Irving plays.
• Heat: 1-4 ATS at home.
  • TMB thoughts: The trends lean toward the Mavericks. However, situational spots/rest advantage favor Miami, making this a challenging game to evaluate. The Mavericks’ recent success without Luka, including outright wins against the Nuggets and Thunder, makes them intriguing.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Philadelphia 76ers

• Clippers: 10-6-1 ATS
• 76ers: 4-11 ATS
  
• 76ers: 0-7 1H O/U at home
• Clippers: 0-4 1H O/U on first game of B2B.
• Clippers: 5-11-1 1H O/U
  
  • TMB thoughts: With key players Joel Embiid and Paul George out, this game leans heavily toward a slower pace and lower scoring. The Clippers’ strong defensive presence (5th in Defensive Rating) combined with the 76ers’ offensive struggles (28th in Offensive Rating) backs a 1H Under 103 play.
    
    On the spread, the Clippers’ recent form and overall ATS record (10-6-1) provide a lean to Clippers -2 (no higher than -2). The line feels light for a surging Clippers squad, and they’re well-positioned to cover against a depleted 76ers team.

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

• Cavaliers: 13-4 ATS (7-2 ATS as home favorites)
• Raptors: 11-5 ATS

• TMB Thoughts: Both teams have excelled ATS this season. We have a few Baller Systems and situational spots favoring the Raptors, which may give them an edge to keep this game closer than the spread suggests.
  
  We lean toward Raptors +11.5, as the line appears inflated considering their competitive nature against strong teams. However, given the Cavaliers’ consistent dominance, we’re keeping this as a lean and not an official play.

Hello Ballers! 3-1 on Friday’s featured trends! Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:

Published: Saturday, November 23, 2024 3:59 PM CT

New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz

• TMB thoughts: Situational factors point to the Knicks. The Jazz are returning from a long road trip, a scenario where teams often struggle. With 8 of their last 10 games played on the road, fatigue is likely to play a role in what looks like a let-down spot at home. We’re backing Knicks -8.5 in this matchup.

Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks

• TMB thoughts: Signs point to fading the Hornets after a grueling OT win where they relied on unsustainable three-point shooting (20/44). Fatigue could be a factor here, especially against a Bucks team that has won 5 of their last 6 games and is seeking revenge for a loss to Charlotte a week ago. While Milwaukee is also on the second game of a back-to-back, they’ve been finding their rhythm. We’re backing Bucks -7.5.
  
  

Memphis Grizzlies @ Chicago Bulls

• TMB thoughts: Strong signals favor the Grizzlies in this matchup, fading the Bulls in a classic letdown spot. Chicago is coming off a second game of a back-to-back where they won outright as underdogs, often a tough situation to maintain momentum. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have been stellar in the first half, boasting a 12-4 1H ATS record this season. We’re playing Grizzlies 1H -2.5, and we like their chances to cover the full game as well.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets

• Rockets hold their opponents’ team total 2-14-1 to the under
  • TMB thoughts: The Rockets’ elite defense (3rd in Defensive Rating) has been a key factor this season, holding opponents’ team totals to the under in 14 of 17 games (2-14-1). Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers rank 30th in Offensive Rating, further supporting a low-scoring outlook for their offense. We’re backing Blazers Team Total Under 107.5 as the play here.

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs

• TMB thoughts: This matchup features one of our favorite Baller Systems, signaling a strong fade on the Warriors. Golden State is in a classic letdown scenario: the second game of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights, and the fourth game in six nights, all while on the road after a win. With this situational factor in mind, we’re backing Spurs +3 as the play.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers

• TMB thoughts: Multiple systems support the over in this matchup. Both teams are strong offensive units (Lakers 4th, Nuggets 7th in Offensive Rating) and weaker on the defensive end (Lakers 23rd, Nuggets 17th). They also play at an above-average pace (Nuggets 9th, Lakers 13th), creating an environment conducive to scoring. With the Nuggets at 10-4 O/U and the Lakers at 9-6 O/U, the over 235 looks appealing. Another angle to consider: the Lakers Team Total Over 119.5, which is a perfect 6-0-1 this season as home favorites.

Hello Ballers! 2-1 on Wednesday’s featured trends. Sorry for the delayed submission today, we are in the middle of a move. As always, NFL Newsletter will be released tomorrow. Here’s today’s Money Baller Report with a breakdown of all of our favorite trends and systems on today’s slate:

Published: Friday, November 22, 2024 5:38 PM CT

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

• Nets: 12-3 1H ATS (10-1 1H ATS as a dog)
• 76ers: 3-11 ATS (1-5 ATS at home)
  • TMB thoughts: If you’re backing the Nets, targeting a 1H +2.5 play aligns well with these trends.

Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards

• Wizards: 2-11 1H ATS (0-6 1H ATS at home)
  • TMB thoughts: Celtics haven’t been the dominant 1H team as years past, but one thing is for sure: Wizards are an excellent 1H fade. The line is 1H -10, one that is a bit rich for our blood.
    

Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks

• Pacers: 5-1 O/U as an underdog
• Baller System on the over: Over system based on recent high scoring
  • TMB thoughts: With the Pacers hitting the over in five of six games as underdogs and a Baller System supporting the over due to recent high-scoring performances, this matchup has all the signals for a shootout. Both teams have potent offenses, and we like this game to go Over 237.

Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans

• Overall, Pelicans are 4-12 ATS this season, but are 6-0 1H ATS as a home underdog
• Warriors: 3-10 1H O/U
  • TMB thoughts: While the Pelicans have struggled overall this season, they’ve been surprisingly strong in the 1H as home underdogs. No action here for now, but these trends are worth noting for those considering early-game plays.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets

• Rockets hold their opponents’ team total 2-13-1 to the under
  • TMB thoughts: The Rockets’ elite defense (3rd in Defensive Rating) has been a key factor this season, holding opponents’ team totals to the under in 13 of 16 games (2-13-1). Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers rank 29th in Offensive Rating, further supporting a low-scoring outlook for their offense. We’re backing Blazers Team Total Under 105.5 as the play here.

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets

• Mavericks: 6-0 1H O/U on the road
• Nuggets: 10-3 1H O/U
  • TMB thoughts: Interesting 1H total trends here supporting this matchup, convincing us to consider 1H Over 115.5 if Jokic is ruled in.

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers

• TMB thoughts: The Kings have multiple Baller Systems backing them, highlighting favorable situational spots, including revenge and bounce-back potential. With DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis back in the lineup, the Kings are positioned to exploit the Clippers’ vulnerabilities. We like the Kings to cover -3.5 in this matchup.

Welcome to today’s “Free Preview” article! We went 1-1 on our featured trends yesterday, with the Raptors coming through for us. Unfortunately, the Hawks/Bulls game didn’t hit the over by the hook after a disappointing 50-point fourth quarter. If this is your first time checking us out, we want to extend a big thank you for joining our community!

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If you’re interested in more of our exclusive insights, check out our membership plans and join the Ballers community today! Thanks again for being here!

Published: Sunday, November 10, 2024 10:05 AM CT

Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks

• TMB thoughts: Situationally, the Bucks have the edge here, entering a revenge spot against a Celtics team coming off an exhausting OT win against the Nets—prime conditions for a potential letdown. Yet, can we really trust the Bucks in this matchup? Our Baller Exclusive base model still leans toward the Celtics, creating some conflicting signals. With these factors at play, we’re passing on this game.

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic

• Wizards: 0-7 1H ATS and 1H Team Total O/U
• Wizards: 1-5-1 1H O/U
• Baller System on the Under: Under system based on falling line
  • TMB thoughts: The Wizards’ first-half struggles have continued with an 0-7 ATS record and a trend toward lower-scoring first halves at 1-5-1 on 1H O/U. With Paolo Banchero out, the Magic’s offensive production takes a significant hit—on/off numbers reveal a 14.8-point drop in their Offensive Rating per 100 possessions, along with a slower Pace by 2.7 possessions. The Baller System under signal based on a falling line further supports taking the 1H Under 112.5 as a strong play in this matchup.

Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers

• TMB thoughts: Indicators lean towards the under in this matchup, particularly with LaMelo Ball listed as questionable. However, with his status still uncertain, it’s prudent to hold off until more clarity is available.

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder

• Warriors: 6-0 1H ATS on the road
• Warriors: 7-2 ATS this season
• Warriors: 1-7-1 1H O/U this season
• Thunder: 7-2 ATS this season
  • TMB thoughts: No play here, as conflicting factors make this matchup a tough call. The Thunder have been dominant, and the initial read leans toward them potentially prevailing at home. However, the Warriors’ resilience and tendency to outperform market expectations add uncertainty. With these mixed signals, this one is a stay-away game for now.

Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns

• Suns: 1-4 ATS at home
  • TMB thoughts: The Suns are in a potential letdown situation, coming off a tight win against the rival Mavericks. With Kevin Durant sidelined, the Suns’ depth will be tested, which further boosts confidence in the Kings’ ability to cover the spread here. The indicators align strongly for Kings -1 in this one.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers

• Grizzlies: 8-2 1H ATS
• Baller System active on Grizzlies: Back road favorite (on road trip) vs. home team w/ next game at home (complacent)
  • TMB thoughts: Grizzlies 1H has been a solid bet this season, while the Trail Blazers are returning home from a 4-game road trip, a spot where we’ve seen team have a let-down spot. We are going Grizzlies 1H ML -110.

Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers

TMB thoughts: There are multiple signals pointing to the over in this matchup between two fast-paced teams. The Raptors rank 8th and the Lakers 7th in pace, which should lead to a high number of possessions. Both teams also have poor defensive ratings, with the Raptors sitting 29th and the Lakers 25th. With the Baller System active for the over and their most recent matchup seeing 256 total points, we’re comfortable backing the over 236 here.