Tag: mlb

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The featured trends went 1-0-1 yesterday, and the matchups with strong Baller Matchup Ratings all came through (Braves, Giants). I am not counting the Astros as I went out of my way to not endorse them at -405, but they won and covered, nonetheless. Back on the winning track – let’s keep it going!

I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

Featured Trends:

• Giants: 11-21-1 O/U as home favorites vs. RHP
• In L30 days, White Sox: 0-6 O/U when Jonathan Cannon starts
• In L30 days, White Sox: 0-5 O/U vs. LHP
  • These trends point towards an under in the pitchers’ park at AT&T Park in San Francisco. With the Chicago White Sox sporting the worst offense in the league, we’re not expecting many runs. We’re favoring the Under 8 (-115, DraftKings).

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins

• No starting pitchers announced and thus, no interesting trends to note at the moment.

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

• Blue Jays: 18-6 O/U when Kevin Gausman starts.

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

• Mets: 10-3 ML when David Peterson starts.
• Mets: 32-15 NRFI as home favorites.
• Orioles: 11-20-2 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Texas Rangers

• Pirates: 32-15 NRFI as road underdogs.

Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros

• Yusei Kikuchi’s teams are 0-10 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.
• Red Sox: 25-10-1 F5 O/U vs. LHP.
• In L30 days, Red Sox: 0-5 ML when Tanner Houck starts.

Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals

• Royals: 20-9 ML and 17-5-7 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Oakland Athletics

• Rays: 4-13 O/U when Taj Bradley starts.
• 2 Baller Systems active on the Rays.

Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

• In L30 days, Padres: 4-0 F5 and full game ML when Michael King starts.
• In L30 days, Padres: 13-4 ML (5-0 ML as home favorites) vs. RHP.

Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants

• In L30 days, White Sox: 0-6 F5 and full game O/U when Jonathan Cannon starts.
• White Sox: 7-17-1 O/U as road underdogs vs LHP.
• In L30 days, White Sox: 0-5 F5 and full game O/U vs. LHP.
• Giants: 11-21-1 O/U as home favorites vs. RHP.

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

• Mariners: 10-3-2 F5 ML when Bryan Woo starts.
• Mariners: 5-14 F5 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
• In L14 days, Dodgers: 9-2-1 F5 O/U vs. RHP.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

• Game: Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians
• Date: Wednesday, August 14
• Time: 4:40 PM ET

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game

The Cubs will seek revenge tonight in the last game of the series as they lost the last 2 games to the Guardians by a single run which were both scored in late innings. Jameson Taillon will try to help avoid the sweep as Cleveland will send Alex Cobb on the bump.

The Cubs are hot at the plate recently, ranking 10th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 9th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. This indicates that their offense is finding success against righties, a trend they will look to continue in this matchup.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been struggling, particularly at home. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians rank a dismal 26th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. In other words, their bats are failing to generate meaningful contact or runs, especially in matchups against right-handed arms. Their power metrics are also lacking, ranking 26th in on-base percentage (OBP), 24th in slugging percentage (SLG), 25th in on-base plus slugging (OPS), and 26th in isolated power (ISO) during this same span.

Defensively, the Cubs have been solid. Their opponents have posted a hard-hit rate of just 38% this season, which is the 5th best in MLB. This ability to limit hard contact should play well against a Guardians lineup that struggles to generate consistent power, with the lowest hard-hit rate in the majors at just 35%.

The Cubs’ starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, primarily utilizes a four-seam fastball, throwing it 31% of the time overall and 40% against left-handed batters. This is bad news for the Guardians, as they are last in MLB in runs above average versus four-seam fastballs.

On the other hand, the Guardians will be up against Alex Cobb, who relies heavily on his sinker (45%) and splitter (43%). While Cobb’s arsenal can be tricky, the Cubs are well-equipped to handle it, ranking 9th and 12th, respectively, against sinkers and splitters. This should further solidify the Cubs’ ability to score runs off Cobb.

Given the Cubs’ offensive momentum against righties, the Guardians’ continued struggles at the plate, and the favorable pitching matchups, the Cubs moneyline (ML) looks appealing. Combining these factors with the Cubs’ ability to limit hard contact while exploiting the Guardians’ inability to handle fastballs, the data suggests the Cubs should come out on top. In addition, The Money Baller matchup page shows a favorable Matchup Rating on the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs ML +120 (BetMGM)

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game