Category: Commentary

Red Sox vs. Yankees: Fireworks at Fenway 💥

Posted on by Dominic Tremblay
  • Date: Sunday, July 28, 2024
  • Game: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
  • Start Time: 05:10 PM ET


Tonight’s game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park is set to be a high-octane affair, with both teams bringing potent offenses and intriguing pitching matchups to the table.

The Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon has been a significant factor in high-scoring games this season, with a 13-6-1 record to the OVER and an impressive 7-2-0 mark as an away favorite. His xERA of 4.26 suggests he might be vulnerable, especially against a Red Sox lineup that has shown proficiency against pitchers with similar repertoires, who have an ERA of 4.89 against Boston over the past year.

Rodon primarily relies on his 4-seam fastball (53%) and slider (27%). The Red Sox are well-equipped to handle these pitches, ranking 7th in runs above average against both the 4-seam and the slider. This sets up a fascinating duel, as Boston’s hitters have been in fine form recently, ranking 2nd in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ at home over the past month.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck, whose surface-level stats (2.71 ERA) might be masking some underlying concerns, as indicated by his 3.82 xERA. Houck’s pitch mix includes a slider (43%), sinker (31%), and splitter (22%). The Yankees’ lineup, known for its offensive firepower, ranks 9th, 1st, and 2nd in runs above average against these pitches, respectively.

The Yankees have been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road this season, ranking 2nd in both wOBA and wRC+. They also lead the league in runs per game on the road, further emphasizing the challenge Houck will face tonight. Conversely, the Red Sox have had their own issues with run prevention at home, allowing the 6th most runs per game.

With both teams’ offenses firing on all cylinders and the pitchers facing tough matchups, we can expect an exciting and potentially high-scoring game. The storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox adds an extra layer of intensity, ensuring that tonight’s showdown at Fenway Park will be a good one.

My analysis points to a play on the Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 (-108, DraftKings).

Coors Field will hear the Birdsong

Posted on by Dominic Tremblay
  • Date: Sunday, July 21, 2024
  • Game: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
  • Start Time: 03:10 PM ET

Andy Kuno / San Francisco Giants / Getty Images



Today’s highlighted matchup will feature the Giants and the Rockies in Coors Field. Ryan Feltner enters the game with a season ERA hovering around 5.40, struggling with consistency and control (C- rating, based on my model). His home splits are even worse with an ERA of 6.75. Despite showing flashes of potential, Feltner has been prone to giving up the long ball. He has a fly ball rate of 33.9% and a 33.6% hard contact rate, a dangerous tendency in Coors Field.

On the other side, Hayden Birdsong has been a revelation for the Giants, boasting a solid 3.72 ERA. Birdsong’s ability to miss bats (COL are 4th in K% vs RHP with 25.4%), coupled with his excellent command (B rating, based on my model), makes him a tough opponent. Hitters facing Birdsong are batting .239 with 17 hits in 19.1 innings of work allowing only 3 homers so far this season.

With a clear pitching advantage in Birdsong and a more reliable, potent lineup, the Giants are well-positioned against the Rockies. Look for Birdsong to neutralize the Rockies’ hitters early and the Giants’ offense to capitalize on Feltner’s weaknesses.

Notes: Rockies are 5-14 SU when Ryan Feltner starts this season and 0-5 SU in the last game of a series. Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman might stand out for the Giants today.