Category: Commentary

The playoffs are finally here! We posted the Western Conference preview earlier on Friday, so here is the Eastern Conference breakdown. Here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. New York Knicks vs. 7. Philadelphia 76ers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

New York Knicks

• The Knicks experienced a shift in their first-half against the spread (ATS) performance this season. With a record of only 33-46-3 ATS in the first half, the Knicks struggled to maintain their previous success.
• When favored, the Knicks delivered, boasting an impressive 29-19-1 ATS record as favorites this season. An X-factor for the Knicks this season has been the presence of OG Anunoby. When Anunoby has played, the Knicks boast a stellar 20-3 straight up 16-7 ATS record. His contributions have been instrumental in the team’s success on both ends of the court.
• In the final stretch of the season, the Knicks experienced a surge in offensive production, reflected in their 11-1 over record in their last 12 games. They were ranked #2 in Offensive Rating during this period.

Philadelphia 76ers

• Excluding their Play-In Tournament victory, the 76ers concluded the regular season on a remarkable high note, winning their final 8 games and covering the spread in 10 consecutive outings.
• In all four matchups between the 76ers and Knicks have gone under, with an average score of 190.7. This defensive focus aligns with the 76ers’ track record in playoff games since the 2018-2019 season, where they boast a solid 30-19-2 (61.2%) record to the under.
• The return of reigning MVP Joel Embiid to the lineup with five games remaining in the regular season significantly bolstered the 76ers’ performance. During this timeframe, the 76ers ranked 2nd in Net Rating (+15.3) in the league.

3. Milwaukee Bucks vs. 7. Indiana Pacers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks

• The Bucks struggled at the end of the regular season, dropping 8 of their last 11 games. This poor performance raised questions about the team’s consistency and readiness for the playoffs.
• The Bucks will be without star Giannis Antetokounmpo: The Bucks had a below .500 record at 4-5 when Antetokounmpo was not in the lineup. Also, they struggle against teams that play at a faster pace than the league average, going 9-23 ATS in those situations.

• The Bucks have demonstrated strength in the first half of games at home with a strong 25-14-3 ATS record in the first half.

Indiana Pacers

• The Pacers have dominated this matchup in the regular season, winning 4 of the 5 matchups outright, including a win in the in-season tournament. The Bucks have a challenging time matching up with the Pacers’ run-and-gun style.
• The Indiana Pacers closed out the regular season scoring well, recording five consecutive overs. During this impressive stretch, they ranked first in Offensive Rating (122.69). This offensive firepower propelled them to finish the season as the second-ranked team in both Offensive Rating and Pace.

• Despite their offensive prowess, the Indiana Pacers have struggled defensively, particularly in limiting opponents’ free throw opportunities. They finished the season last in the league in Free Throw Rate allowed, presenting an area of vulnerability for the Bucks to exploit.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Orlando Magic

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Despite their reputation as an excellent defensive team with a slower pace of play, the Cleveland Cavaliers have seen a high rate of overs. 9 out of their final 12 regular season games resulted in overs. They were 25-16 to the over at home.

• Despite finishing the season with a respectable 6th ranking in Defensive Rating, the Cleveland Cavaliers faced challenges on the defensive end as the season progressed. In the final 20 regular season games, their defensive performance was only 24th in that timeframe. This raises concerns about their defensive consistency heading into the postseason.
• The Cavaliers finished the regular season on a sour note with a 4-10 ATS record and a final regular season game where they obviously tanked to get to a favorable playoff matchup.

Orlando Magic

• The Magic finished the regular season with the best ATS record in the league at 51-30-1. They were the league’s most undervalued team, and their ability to consistently cover spreads highlights their competitiveness.
• Despite their young roster, the Magic proved to be a formidable defensive force, finishing the season ranked #2 in Defensive Rating (111.29). This defensive prowess reflects their commitment to stifling opponents and limiting scoring opportunities.
• The Magic excelled in key statistical categories. Notably, they led the league in Free Throw Rate, showcasing their ability to draw fouls and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Additionally, their 7th ranking in Offensive Rebound Percentage highlights their prowess on the boards and ability to generate second-chance scoring opportunities.

1. Boston Celtics vs. 8. Miami Heat

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Boston Celtics

• The Boston Celtics have been a force in the first half this season with an impressive 56-25-1 Against The Spread (ATS) record. Despite sweeping the regular-season series against the Miami Heat 3-0, the Celtics struggled to cover the spread (1-2 ATS) in those matchups. The memory of their defeat to the Heat in last year’s seven-game Eastern Conference Finals looms large, motivating the Celtics to seek revenge.

• In their last 14 regular-season games, the Celtics have showcased remarkable offensive efficiency, resulting in an impressive 11-3 Over/Under record.
• Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage of 5 or more days have historically performed exceptionally well, boasting a 17-5 SU and 16-6 ATS record according to data from the KillerSports.com database.

Miami Heat

• The Heat are no slouch in the first half either. They are 46-35-2 1H ATS overall, 20-12-2 1H ATS as an underdog. Their ability to stay competitive, even as underdogs, showcases their resilience and determination on the court.
• Games in which Jimmy Butler has been absent have trended towards the under, with a notable 17-6 record this season. Their Offensive Rating worsens by 6.5 points per 100 possessions when he is off the court.
• In their last 12 games, the Miami Heat have been involved in high-scoring affairs, going an impressive 10-2 to the over.

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The playoffs are finally here! What an exciting time for hoops fans. Here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. Denver Nuggets vs. 7. Los Angeles Lakers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Denver Nuggets

• The Nuggets have demonstrated dominance over the Lakers, winning 8 straight matchups, including 4 games in last season’s Western Conference Finals where they swept the Lakers.
• The Nuggets excel particularly in the first half of games, boasting a strong 46-36 ATS record in first-half betting compared to their 38-42-2 ATS full-game record.
• Since the All-Star Break, the Nuggets have been formidable, posting a 16-3 straight up record and going 13-6 ATS when both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are on the court together.

Los Angeles Lakers

• The Lakers have been involved in high-scoring games on the road this season, with a 26-15 over record overall and a 27-13-1 over record in the first half. Their Defensive Rating on the road ranks 22nd in the league.

• Despite facing weaker competition, the Lakers have been successful on the road, winning their last 6 road games and going 4-2 ATS in those matchups.
• Although it’s a small sample size, teams coming off road wins in the Play-In tournament have struggled to cover the spread, going 0-3 ATS since the 2021-2022 season.
  

3. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. 7. Phoenix Suns

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Karl-Anthony Towns is returning for his second game after injury. However, Basketball Reference’s On/Off numbers indicate that the Wolves’ Net Rating worsens slightly by 0.2 points when he’s on the floor.
• In their last regular-season game, the Timberwolves suffered an upset loss to the Suns as 2.5-point favorites. They’ll be eager to redeem themselves on their home court.
• Recent home form hasn’t been favorable for the Timberwolves, as they’ve managed just one cover in their last seven games at home.

Phoenix Suns

• Despite high expectations, the Suns have struggled to meet market expectations this season, especially at home, where they have a dismal 15-24-2 ATS record. However, they perform better in the first half, boasting a 22-18-1 ATS record.
• Historically, the Suns have dominated this matchup, winning nine out of the last ten games straight up and against the spread.
• The Suns’ strength lies in their mid-range game, ranking second overall in Mid-Range Shots Attempted and Mid-Range FG%. On the flip side, the Timberwolves struggle to defend the mid-range, ranking 28th in Mid-Range Shots Allowed.

4. Los Angeles Clippers vs. 5. Dallas Mavericks

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Los Angeles Clippers

• When Kawhi Leonard is off the court, the Clippers’ Net Rating plummets by 11.9 points, reflecting his crucial role in their performance. In games without Leonard, the Clippers have struggled, posting a 6-9 ATS record.
• Clippers’ games often trend towards the under, particularly in the first half. They boast impressive records of 49-33 to the 1H under overall, and an outstanding 15-3 to the 1H under as underdogs.
• The Clippers faced challenges post-All-Star break, recording a disappointing 9-20 ATS record, raising concerns about their consistency.

Dallas Mavericks

• The Mavericks closed out the regular season in impressive fashion, going 16-4 straight up and ATS in their final 20 games, showcasing their momentum heading into the playoffs. They are 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS in their previous 16 games that Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving played together.
• Throughout 2024, the Mavericks have a solid 33-16 record to the under.
• Recent matchups have largely resulted in the under, with 7 of their last 9 games going below the total points line.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. New Orleans Pelicans

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

• The Thunder, a young and impressive team, have demonstrated their dominance at home by finishing with an outstanding 33-8 SU and 27-14 ATS record.
• Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage of 5 or more days have historically performed exceptionally well, boasting a 17-5 SU and 16-6 ATS record according to data from the KillerSports.com database.

• While the Thunder excel in many areas, one noticeable weakness lies in their lack of presence inside the paint. They rank 28th in Offensive Rebounding % and 27th in Second Chance points, indicating a deficiency that the bigger Pelicans can potentially exploit.

New Orleans Pelicans

• The Pelicans have primarily favored unders this season, going 25-16-1 record against the under for full games and 29-13 to the under in the first half.

• The Pelicans have been a dominant force in the first half, posting an impressive 52-30-1 Against The Spread (ATS) record. This places them second only to the Celtics in first-half ATS performance.
• Despite the absence of key player Zion Williamson for this series, the Pelicans have managed to perform well in his absence. In games without Williamson, they’ve posted an 8-5 straight-up record and an even more impressive 9-4 ATS record. Interestingly, Basketball Reference data reveals that the pace of the game slows down by an average of 3.5 possessions when Williamson is off the court, which makes another case for Pelicans’ unders.

The Impact of Free Throw Rate on NBA Playoff Totals

In the world of NBA playoff betting, understanding the nuances of Free Throw Rate (FTR) can provide a distinct advantage. There is a notable correlation between FTR and game totals: higher rates often lead to games going over the total points line, while lower rates typically result in games staying under.

Strategic Application in Live-Betting and Analysis

Predicting free throw attempts before a game begins is challenging; however, recognizing the trends in how a game is officiated can offer valuable insights, particularly for live-betting. Observing whether referees are calling fouls frequently or sparingly during a game can help bettors make informed decisions on the fly.

Historical Performance and Trends

Looking at historical data can also reveal patterns that are invaluable for betting strategies. For instance, teams that had a FTR of 35% or higher in a game have subsequently gone 79-46-8 (63.2%) to the under since the 2014-2015 season. Even more compelling, these teams have gone 35-15 (70%) to the under in the last two playoff seasons when following a high-FTR game.

Insights for Baller Access Members

For members of Baller Access, our platform automatically flags matchups where this high Free Throw Rate system is active, simplifying the betting process and enhancing your strategy.

Understanding Free Throw Rate Norms and Variations

The average FTR in NBA games typically hovers around 28%. A rate of 35% is considerably higher and indicative of a game where many fouls were called. Not only can excessive free throws slow down the game and frustrate fans (we’re looking at you, Luka!), but they can also affect the pacing and strategy of the opposing team.

Teams and referees often adjust after a high FTR game. The following game might see fewer fouls called as referees use a looser whistle, or opposing teams might alter their play to avoid fouling. These adjustments can lead to a lower scoring game, making the ‘under’ a potentially profitable bet.

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