Category: Commentary

On Tuesday evening, the Minnesota Lynx and the New York Liberty will face off in the Commissioner’s Cup championship at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. The stakes are high, as the players compete not only for the championship trophy but also for a substantial cash prize of $500,000. This is especially significant for these women athletes, who often face financial challenges due to their current salaries.

“We want the money,” Lynx star Napheesa Collier said after the Lynx had won their sixth consecutive game Saturday. “It will be competitive, even if you take the money out of it. But you put that money on the line and people will be playing hard.”

Lynx face Liberty for WNBA in-season title: ‘We want the money’ (startribune.com)

The Liberty are the defending champions, having won last season’s in-season tournament, and they will be aiming to go back-to-back. The Lynx, meanwhile, have been a pleasant surprise this season, with a 13-3 record and leading the league in Net Rating (+12.9). Their offense has been solid, ranking 3rd in Offensive Rating, but it’s their defense that truly stands out, as they hold the top spot in Defensive Rating.

The two teams have met once this season, with Minnesota coming out on top with an 84-67 victory a month ago in Minneapolis. Will the Liberty be able to exact their revenge? Let’s break it down using our matchup pages.

Stats, Trends, and Systems

The league’s #1 ranked offense (Liberty) faces off against the league’s #1 ranked defense (Lynx). Napheesa Collier, a leading MVP candidate, is one of four players averaging a double-double (20.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg).

Both teams are excellent shooting teams, but the Lynx have the advantage here, leading the league in 3-point shooting at 40%. Kayla McBride is the main reason – she is averaging 46.4% from behind the arc on 7 attempts per game. Their corner 3 FG% is an incredible 43.59%. The Liberty have been susceptible to the corner 3, ranking 9th in the league in FG% allowed.

• Lynx backers have been rolling around in their dough. They are a league-best 12-4 ATS this season, exceeding all market expectations. They are 5-1 ATS on the road and 6-1 ATS as an underdog.
  
• Meanwhile, the Liberty are 7-11 ATS this season, while only 1-8 ATS at home. They’ve been winning games, but they have not been covering.
  
• 1H unders: Lynx are 10-5-1 to the 1H under this season, and 8-3-1 to the 1H under off a win.
  

We have 2 Baller Systems active on the Lynx. One system backs a road team who won their previous in-season head-to-head matchup at home and their opponent played their previous game on the road. This system has gone 112-82-2 (57.7%) ATS since the 2018 season.

Another system backs a road team off a win with 2 or more days of rest and a rest advantage over their opponent. This system has gone 70-54-4 (56.5%) ATS since the 2018 season, 38-22-3 (63.3%) ATS when they are an underdog.

Editor’s Note: one additional Baller System was added on the morning of Tuesday, June 25, 10:32 AM CT

Current season performance, active Baller Systems, and ATS trends all point to value on: Lynx +5. Our models make the line Liberty -2.5. Although they are the “hosting team”, they are not playing in their home arena due to scheduling conflicts at the Barclay’s Center. Even though they will have their fans in attendance, they still don’t have your typical homecourt advantage.

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