Category: Commentary
Top MLB Betting Trends To Watch | Monday, July 22
Coors Field will hear the Birdsong
- Date: Sunday, July 21, 2024
- Game: San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
- Start Time: 03:10 PM ET
Andy Kuno / San Francisco Giants / Getty Images
Today’s highlighted matchup will feature the Giants and the Rockies in Coors Field. Ryan Feltner enters the game with a season ERA hovering around 5.40, struggling with consistency and control (C- rating, based on my model). His home splits are even worse with an ERA of 6.75. Despite showing flashes of potential, Feltner has been prone to giving up the long ball. He has a fly ball rate of 33.9% and a 33.6% hard contact rate, a dangerous tendency in Coors Field.
On the other side, Hayden Birdsong has been a revelation for the Giants, boasting a solid 3.72 ERA. Birdsong’s ability to miss bats (COL are 4th in K% vs RHP with 25.4%), coupled with his excellent command (B rating, based on my model), makes him a tough opponent. Hitters facing Birdsong are batting .239 with 17 hits in 19.1 innings of work allowing only 3 homers so far this season.
With a clear pitching advantage in Birdsong and a more reliable, potent lineup, the Giants are well-positioned against the Rockies. Look for Birdsong to neutralize the Rockies’ hitters early and the Giants’ offense to capitalize on Feltner’s weaknesses.
Notes: Rockies are 5-14 SU when Ryan Feltner starts this season and 0-5 SU in the last game of a series. Heliot Ramos and Matt Chapman might stand out for the Giants today.
Daily MLB In-season Trends to Watch | Saturday, July 20
Rays vs. Yankees: Taj Bradley’s Road Struggles
- Date: Saturday, July 20, 2024
- Game: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
- Start Time: 01:05 PM ET
Editor’s Note: I am happy to introduce a talented contributor to our team: Dominic Tremblay. Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.
– Austin
In today’s matchup between the Rays and the Yankees, home/away splits will play a big role as Taj Bradley will be facing Nestor Cortes in Yankee Stadium in an afternoon game (1:05 PM ET first pitch). Let’s dive into each starter’s splits and stats.
The Rays will send Taj Bradley in the bump. He is not the same pitcher when starting on the road with a 6.20 ERA and a .309 OBA compared to 1.50 ERA and a .160 OBA at home. Bradley is 0-6 SU F5 as an underdog in his short career and 0-4 SU F5 as an away dog this season. He is also due for negative regression suggested by his 3.88 xERA compared to a 2.90 ERA. Also, the fact that he’ll face a good lineup in a home run-friendly park, where his 2.7 HR/9 and 42.4% fly ball rate on the road should play against him.
On the other side, Nestor Cortes will start for the Yankees, and he’s been excellent at home with a 1.81 ERA, a .190 OBA and a 0.8 HR/9.
Yankees are ranked 3rd with 3.13 F5 runs scored at home and 3rd in F5 runs allowed this season. In comparison, the Rays are 24th with 2.09 F5 runs scored on the road. The Rays are struggling with RISP lately as they are dead last in MLB, batting just .103 in this situation over the last 2 weeks.
Arizona Cardinals: 2024 NFL Preview – Overs Galore
Arizona Cardinals | NFC West
Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Click here for the Week 1 Cardinals vs. Bills matchup page
Shop for Baller Access membership plans
Head Coach:
- Jonathan Gannon (2nd season)
Key Additions:
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) – Rookie
- Darius Robinson (DE) – Rookie
- Bilal Nichols (DT)
- Jonah Williams (T)
- Justin Jones (DT)
- Sean Murphy-Bunting (CB)
- Zay Jones (WR)
Key Departures:
- Marquise Brown (WR)
- Rondale Moore (WR)
Last Season’s Results and Notes (2023):
- Overall Record: 4-13
- ATS Record: 8-8-1 ATS
- O/U Record: 10-7 O/U
- Cardinals: 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in divisional games.
- Cardinals: 11-5-1 O/U in the 1H.
Last Season’s Ranks (2023):
- EPA/play (offense): 22nd
- Rush EPA (offense): 7th
- Pass EPA (defense): 27th
- EPA/play allowed (defense): 31st
- Rush EPA (defense): 27th
- Pass EPA (defense): 31st
- Plays per game: 18th
- Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 9th
2024 Season Schedule:
- Week 1: Buffalo Bills (Away)
- Week 2: Los Angeles Rams (Home)
- Week 3: Detroit Lions (Home)
- Week 4: Washington Commanders (Home)
- Week 5: San Francisco 49ers (Away)
- Week 6: Green Bay Packers (Away)
- Week 7: Los Angeles Chargers (Home)
- Week 8: Miami Dolphins (Away)
- Week 9: Chicago Bears (Home)
- Week 10: New York Jets (Home)
- Week 11: BYE
- Week 12: Seattle Seahawks (Away)
- Week 13: Minnesota Vikings (Away)
- Week 14: Seattle Seahawks (Home)
- Week 15: New England Patriots (Home)
- Week 16: Carolina Panthers (Away)
- Week 17: Los Angeles Rams (Away)
- Week 18: San Francisco 49ers (Home)
Commentary:
The Arizona Cardinals are looking to improve on a throwaway four-win season from 2023. Kyler Murray missed half the season, and their defense was awful across the board. They were a strong ‘overs’ team last season with their quick pace of play and their poor defense. A healthy Murray and standout rookie Harrison Jr. should provide some nice highlight reels, but their defense is still not good enough to make a material improvement.
