Pacers Trends: 9-17 ATS overall, including 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
Pelicans Trends: 3-10 ATS on the road, struggling to cover.
Pacers Totals: 17-9 O/U, indicating a tendency for higher-scoring games.
TMB Thoughts: While the trends highlight struggles against the spread for both teams, there’s no compelling angle for a clear play in this matchup. This one’s a pass for us.
Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards
Wizards Trends:
7-16 1H ATS (2-10 ATS at home).
5-18 1H Team Total O/U, including 1-11 at home.
TMB Thoughts: The trends scream to fade the Wizards in the 1H, but situational factors and Baller Systems point to some angles favoring the Wizards. With the Celtics prone to letdowns in similar spots, we’ll take a cautious approach and sit this one out.
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic
Magic: 9-1 ATS at home
Magic: 9-18 1H ATS
TMB thoughts: The Magic continue to thrive ATS at home, showcasing their depth and resilience. However, their 1H struggles and injuries (Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero) are notable. Meanwhile, the Knicks should come out with urgency after their disappointing NBA Cup loss as outright favorites. We’ll back the Knicks 1H-2, capitalizing on the contrast in early-game performance.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
Wolves: 7-17 Team Total O/U (3-9 TT O/U on the road
TMB thoughts: The Wolves’ offensive struggles are evident, ranking 20th in Offensive Rating. Both teams play at a slower pace, and Minnesota continues to underperform overall. The Wolves Team Total Under109.5 stands out as the play here.
Portland Trailblazers @ Phoenix Suns
Blazers: 7-16-2 1H O/U
TMB thoughts: While the Blazers’ trend toward 1H unders is intriguing, it’s not compelling enough to warrant a bet in this matchup. We’ll stay on the sidelines here.
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
Warriors Trends:
6-18 1H Team Total O/U this season.
0-4 1H Team Total O/U as home underdogs.
Mavericks Trends:
Opponents’ 1H Team Total O/U: 8-17.
TMB Thoughts: The Warriors have been historically slow starters, particularly at home as underdogs. Coupled with the Mavericks’ solid defensive performances in the first half, the Warriors 1H Team Total Under58 looks like a strong play here.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Grizzlies Trends:
19-7 1H ATS (5-1 1H ATS as road favorites).
Opponents’ 1H Team Total: 8-18 O/U.
Lakers Trends:
1-9 Team Total O/U as underdogs.
2-8 1H O/U as underdogs.
TMB Thoughts: The numbers strongly favor fading the Lakers’ offense in the first half. With the Grizzlies excelling defensively and the Lakers consistently falling short of their 1H scoring expectations as underdogs, the Grizzlies 1H ATS -2 (up to -2.5) and Lakers 1H Team Total Under 56.5 are recommended plays. Expect a slow start from the Lakers in this spot.
Welcome to a special edition Money Baller NBA Cup Report! Today’s report is FREE to the public – thank you for visiting. Use code ‘NBA50’ for 50% off your first payment. Also, we are offering a 3-day free trial for you to get a free preview before you commit.
Published: Saturday, December 14, 2024 – 3:00 PM CST
The Hawks have been in excellent form, winning 7 of their last 8 games.
17-9 O/U record this season.
Milwaukee Bucks:
The Bucks have struggled to cover at home, with a 9-15 ATS record. The Bucks have underperformed and shown inconsistency all season long.
Baller Systems Analysis
Two active Baller Systems favor the Under:
Falling Line System: Targets the Hawks, where the total drops in consecutive games—a signal for defensive adjustments and lower-scoring outcomes.
Rematch System: Highlights lower-scoring trends in games played within 10 days of a prior matchup, particularly when the total line is set lower than the previous meeting.
TMB Thoughts
This high-stakes game sees both teams looking to assert dominance in the Eastern Conference, but the trends and systems suggest a tighter defensive battle than expected. Under 232.5 is the play here.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Houston Rockets:
The Rockets have been strong against the spread (ATS), boasting a 17-8 1H ATS record and a 16-9 overall ATS record this season.
Their defense has been key to their success, leading to frequent low-scoring first halves.
Oklahoma City Thunder:
The Thunder have also been reliable ATS, sitting at 15-8-1 overall ATS.
Totals Trends
Both teams show a tendency for first-half unders:
Rockets:9-16 1H O/U
Thunder:10-14 1H O/U
Two Baller Systems align on the Under for this matchup:
Lower Totals System: Targets games where the posted total is notably lower than recent averages, signaling a potential defensive slugfest.
Elite Matchup System: Focuses on matchups between two top-performing conference teams (win percentage of 60% or greater), which historically trend toward lower-scoring games due to tighter defense and playoff-like intensity.
TMB Thoughts
Given both teams’ strong trends toward lower-scoring first halves, combined with the active Baller Systems, 1H under 106 is the recommended play. This sets up to be a competitive, defense-first start in the exciting Western Conference NBA Cup quarterfinals.
Welcome to the NFL Week 15 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 14 Newsletter picks went 2-0, which brings our season record on released picks to 23-18-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Titans: 2-10-1 ATS this season
Bengals: 4-0 ATS as road favorites
Giants: 0-7 1H ATS as home underdogs
Ravens: 10-3 O/U this season
Panthers: 10-2-1 1H O/U this season
Dolphins: 2-11 1H Team Total O/U this season
Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
Broncos: 10-3 ATS (4-0 ATS as home favorites)
Broncos: 10-2-1 1H O/U (4-0 1H O/U as home favorites)
Chargers: 10-2-1 1H ATS this season
Chargers: 9-0 ATS as favorites this season.
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 2-11 O/U this season.
Chargers: 2-8-1 ATS in L11 games as underdogs
Steelers: 10-3 ATS this season (5-0 ATS as an underdog)
Steelers: 3-9 1H O/U this season
Eagles: 4-9 1H O/U this season (1-4 1H O/U at home)
Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season
Bills: 11-2 Team Total O/U this season
Bears: 0-6 1H ATS on the road this season.
Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
Cowboys: 3-13 ATS in L16 games as underdogs.
Not active this week:
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Cowboys: 1-8 ATS in L9 home games.
II. NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring cooled off slightly in Week 14, with games averaging 47.3 points per game (PPG), a slight dip from Week 13’s 48.4 PPG. The median scoring also reflected this shift at 47 points, compared to the previous week’s elevated scoring pace. The season-long scoring average now stands at 45.6 PPG, while totals betting for Week 14 finished 6-7 O/U, highlighting a balanced but slightly under-leaning week.
Season Trends
Season-long totals record: 107-98-3 to the over.
Week 15 average total: 45.0, slightly below the season-long scoring average of 45.6 PPG.
Key Late-Season Factors Supporting Unders
Divisional Familiarity Teams meeting for the second time in a season tend to limit explosive plays, leaning into more cautious play-calling and defensive adjustments.
Playoff Contenders Tightening Up With playoff spots on the line, contenders often employ conservative strategies, prioritizing ball security and field position over high-risk, high-reward plays.
Weather Conditions December games in outdoor stadiums can be heavily influenced by cold temperatures, wind, and precipitation, which impact both passing and kicking efficiency. This can lead to a slower pace and fewer points.
Week 15 Takeaways
The slight decrease in scoring and the lower average total for Week 15 suggest the market is beginning to account for late-season trends. However, these conditions create opportunities for sharp bettors to target potential unders, especially in divisional matchups and games with significant playoff implications.
As the season progresses, staying disciplined and adapting to the evolving scoring environment will be critical for finding value in totals betting. strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.
III. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 52-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 8-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Ravens (vs. Giants) in Week 15.
IV. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 161-108-3 ATS (59.9%). Backing this has gone 10-4 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Buccaneers (fade the Chargers) in Week 15.
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.4% clip, going 154-119-10 ATS. (5-4 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Ravens -16.5 this week against the Panthers.
NFL Week 15 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
The Baltimore Ravens head into their matchup against the New York Giants as double-digit road favorites, and for good reason. This game sets up perfectly for Baltimore to bounce back, backed by favorable trends and situational advantages.
The Ravens come off a bye week with extra rest and preparation, a critical factor as they look to rebound from an poor showing against Philadelphia. Baltimore benefits from a classic Baller System: backing road favorites coming off a loss as home favorites. Historically, teams in this situation have performed well, and the Ravens’ dominant roster and added motivation make them prime candidates to continue that trend.
On the other side, the Giants have all but packed it in for the season. With Tommy DeVito under center, their offense remains among the least effective in the league. The team is seemingly shifting its focus toward rebuilding, with their eyes set on next season and potentially securing a favorable draft position.
A particularly glaring trend works against the Giants: they are 0-7 ATS in the first half as home underdogs. This highlights their inability to compete early in games, a pattern that seems unlikely to change against a rested and motivated Ravens team.
The combination of situational advantages for Baltimore and the Giants’ season-long struggles makes this an appealing spot to back the Ravens early. Ravens 1H is the recommended play, capitalizing on their preparation and the Giants’ consistent first-half woes.
Pick: Ravens 1H -8.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
This game features two of our favorite Baller Systems that both favor the under. The setup presents a strong case for a lower-scoring affair, driven by situational and performance factors for both teams.
The Bengals come into this game off a short week, having played on Monday Night Football. Their thrilling win against Dallas featured a miraculous touchdown after a botched blocked kick, making it an emotionally taxing victory. With a divisional showdown against the Browns looming, Cincinnati may struggle to maintain focus and perform at their best.
Adding to their woes, the Bengals’ defense has been underwhelming and inconsistent, which would typically favor the over. However, Tennessee’s lackluster offense mitigates this concern. The Titans rank 31st in Offensive DVOA, making them one of the least efficient offenses in the league.
The line for this game is particularly revealing and supports a play on the under. Considering the Bengals’ poor scheduling spot, their potential letdown, and Tennessee’s offensive struggles, this game aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring outcome. Backing the under is the move in this matchup.
Pick: Under 46.5
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Packers enter this matchup with a significant rest advantage, while the Seahawks are in a precarious spot. Seattle is coming off an upset victory against a divisional opponent and now returns home after spending the past two weeks on the road. This situation is often a classic letdown spot, as teams struggle to maintain intensity after emotional road wins.
On the other hand, Green Bay is seeking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Lions. A key Baller System is active here, favoring the Packers:
Fade Underdogs After a Game with Two or More Rushing Touchdowns. This system highlights the unsustainability of teams relying heavily on the ground game to secure a win. Historical data shows that such performances are unlikely to repeat consistently, especially when injuries impact key contributors.
Seattle’s reliance on the run game becomes even more concerning with Kenneth Walker’s status in question. If Walker is unavailable or limited, the Seahawks’ offense could struggle to replicate their success from the previous game, creating a significant edge for Green Bay. Backing the Packers is the play here.
Welcome to a special edition Money Baller NBA Cup Report. We went 4-2 on our featured picks on Sunday on the NBA Baller Report and 2-0 in the NFL Week 14 Newsletter!
Published: Monday, December 9, 2024 – 11:14 PM CST
The Magic continue to struggle in the first half, holding an 8-18 1H ATS record overall and an even worse 1-7 1H ATS as road underdogs.
Key Absences: The Magic will be without key players Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, which significantly impacts their offensive firepower and versatility.
Bucks Dynamics: Expect Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo to step up in a meaningful game.
TMB Thoughts: With the Magic’s poor 1H record and the absence of two of their best players, the Bucks are in an ideal spot to take early control. We recommend playing Bucks 1H ATS, with confidence up to Bucks 1H -4.5. No official lines were posted at the time of writing, but this setup aligns strongly with first-half trends and player availability.
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Mavericks Trends: Dallas has been strong against the spread, holding a 15-9 ATS record this season and excelling as an underdog of 2.5 points or more with a 6-1 ATS mark. Additionally, they have consistently hit overs in this spot, going 7-0 O/U and 7-0 on Team Total Overs as a road underdog.
Thunder Trends: Oklahoma City also has an impressive 14-8-1 ATS record.
Game Dynamics: A Baller System identifies unders as a strong play in matchups between elite conference teams. Despite Dallas’s recent trend toward overs, both teams’ defensive capabilities and the stakes of this matchup suggest a lower-scoring affair.
TMB Thoughts: In what could be a tightly contested game between two of the West’s best teams, we support the Under 231.5. The line feels inflated for teams that can buckle down defensively in high-stakes games. Also, we lean backing the Thunder -4, an elite home team seeking revenge.
Welcome to the NFL Week 14 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Our Week 13 Newsletter Part 2 picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 21-18-2.
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
Dolphins: 1-11 1H Team Total O/U this season.
Panthers: 9-2-1 1H O/U this season.
Titans: 2-9-1 ATS this season.
Chargers: 10-1-1 1H ATS this season.
Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 1-11 O/U this season.
Chargers: 1-8-1 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
Bears: 0-5 1H ATS on the road this season.
Bills: 10-2 Team Total O/U this season.
Bengals: 9-3 O/U this season.
Cowboys: 3-12 ATS in L15 games as underdogs.
Cowboys: 1-7 ATS in L8 home games.
Not active this week:
Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
Texans: 11-2 1H ATS this season (but only 5-8 full game ATS)
Chargers: 8-1 ATS as favorites this season.
Ravens: 10-2 O/U this season
Steelers: 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
Lions: 11-2 1H ATS this season.
II. NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Scoring has been on an upward trend for the third consecutive week, with Week 13 games averaging 48.4 points per game (PPG). This marks an increase from 47.7 PPG in Week 12 and 46.8 PPG in Week 11. However, this rise is slightly skewed by high-scoring games like Steelers vs. Bengals (82 points) and Broncos vs. Browns (73 points). Excluding these outliers, the median scoring sits at 46 PPG, revealing the average is somewhat inflated. The season-long scoring average has now ticked up to 45.6 PPG.
Totals betting in Week 13 ended 7-8 O/U, a mixed result that reflects this upward scoring trend but hints at potential shifts in Week 14.
Season Trends and Week 14 Outlook
Season-long totals record: 101-91-3 to the over.
Week 14 average total: 45.4, consistent with season-long scoring.
Despite the recent scoring spike, historical trends suggest a late-season shift toward lower-scoring games. This is often driven by divisional familiarity, more conservative game plans for playoff contenders, and weather impacts.
Strategies for Betting Totals in Week 14
Target Inflated Totals: Higher lines stemming from recent scoring surges may create value for unders, especially where pace, weather, or situational factors point to fewer points.
Focus on Pace and Red Zone Efficiency: Teams playing at slower paces or with struggles in the red zone are prime under candidates.
Monitor Weather Conditions: Early forecasts can reveal opportunities for unders before the market reacts.
Key Takeaways
As Week 14 approaches, disciplined bettors can capitalize on potential market inefficiencies caused by scoring trends. Late-season dynamics—such as familiarity, playoff implications, and unpredictable weather—make unders an appealing strategy. Stay sharp, assess situational factors, and align bets with evolving conditions.
III. Fading home teams off an OT win
One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 55-32-4 record (63.2% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.
This trend has gone 4-2-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Buccaneers (play on the Raiders +6.5) in Week 14.
IV. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-22-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-3 ATS this season.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
This is active to play on the Bengals (vs. Cowboys) in Week 14.
V. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 160-108-3 ATS (59.7%). Backing this has gone 9-4 ATS this season.
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to play on the Seahawks (fade the Cardinals) in Week 14.
VI. Betting Analysis: Favorites and Bye Week Trends
When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.6% clip, going 154-118-10 ATS. (5-3 ATS this season)
Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.
Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 45-30-4 ATS (60%) since 2015. Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.
This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.
Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.
This is active to play on the Eagles -13.5 this week against the Panthers.
NFL Week 14 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
The Seattle Seahawks enter this pivotal NFC West clash with momentum over the Arizona Cardinals. With two Baller Systems pointing in their favor, here’s why we’re taking the Seahawks to cover as underdogs:
Baller System: Fading Home Favorites Off a Loss Arizona suffered a heartbreaking defeat to the Vikings in their previous outing, a classic setup for fading teams in this spot.
Baller System:Backing Divisional Dogs Who Dominate the Matchup Seattle has won the last two head-to-head matchups against Arizona, indicating they’ve figured out how to handle this divisional rival. This confidence should carry over into this crucial game.
Seahawks Road Resilience Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season, proving their ability to deliver away from home. Conversely, the Cardinals are returning home after two road games over the Thanksgiving stretch—a situation that often results in mental and physical fatigue.
Momentum and Playoff Implications The Seahawks are riding a three-game win streak and come into this matchup motivated, knowing the impact it has on the divisional playoff picture. While the Cardinals might argue it’s a revenge spot, Seattle’s recent form and cohesion give me more confidence.
Kenneth Walker’s Availability and Depth Even with Kenneth Walker listed as questionable, the Seahawks can rely on Zach Charbonnet, a capable backup who can carry the load if needed.
Seattle’s well-rounded performance and mental edge in recent matchups make them the smart play here. I would try to find a Seahawks +3 (-115 or better) but would also take Seahawks +2.5 if that is your best option.
Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
This Week 14 matchup sets up favorably for the Bengals, supported by two key Baller Systems and strong situational trends:
1. Road Favorites Off a Loss
Road favorites of 2.5+ points, coming off a home loss as favorites, sport a 51-22-4 ATS record since 2018, including 7-3 ATS this season. This reflects the strong bounce-back potential of teams favored on the road after an unexpected setback. Cincinnati fits the profile, signaling a confident rebound opportunity.
2. Favorites After High-Turnover Games
Teams coming off turnover-heavy games tend to rebound with a better focus on ball security. The Bengals’ offense remains highly efficient despite recent defensive struggles, making them reliable in this spot.
3. Favorable Matchup Context
Cowboys Offensive Struggles: Ranked 27th in Offensive DVOA, Dallas lacks the firepower to exploit Cincinnati’s defensive lapses.
Line Confidence: The Bengals are -5 favorites despite a worse record, indicating trust from the market in their potential to dominate. Cincinnati has faced a rough schedule in the last few weeks, and should be able to bounce back against the lowly Cowboys.
