WNBA Opening Day: New Teams & New Expectations

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Atlanta Dream vs Mystics:
The Atlanta Dream parted ways with their former HC Tanish
a Wright, who is now an assistant coach for Chicago. Tanisha was a competitive coach, yet held her former frontcourt of Tina Charles & Cheyenne Parker-Tyus on short leashes.

ATL, now under new head coach Karl Smesko, dumped that frontcourt to acquire Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones. This is a powerful duo, each completely dominant in post position while having serviceable jumpshots. Smesko calls this his “Dream Duo”, and that this offense will be dependent on their “high value shots”, which will feature a lot of post touches.

This duo both were Centers, but now are starting alongside each other. With ATL also picking up Shatori Walker-Kimbrough and having Jordin Canada return in a couple weeks, they look to improve further upon their defense that ranked Top 5 in DRTG and 2nd in OPP PITP to close the year. Expect a slow, grinding team.

Meanwhile, The Mystics also made a coaching change to Sydney Johnson. Johnson, who came from 3v3 basketball, looks to play at an ultra-fast pace. This team was looking to start a rebuild this season with three Top 10 draft picks of Sonia Citron (G, Notre Dame), Kiki Iriafen (F, USC) and Georgia Amoore (G, UK). Kiki was the most aggressive in preseason, while Citron was pretty reserved in her shot selection.

Sadly, the WSH injury list is long. Georgia Amoora is already out for the year with an ACL tear, while other young stars in Shakira Austin (leg) and Aaliyah Edwards (back) will miss the opener. Those two each had strong offseasons in Unrivaled, yet Austin has yet to put together a healthy season.

With so much inexperience in the WSH team, they likely remain a struggling unit this season.

These two met in the preseason, with ATL winning 80-70, and the first quarter 30-10. They dealt most of this damage from behind the arc, making up nearly half of their points.

Lynx vs Wings:
The Wings last season tied the Indiana Fever in 2020 with the worst DRTG in WNBA history, so they of course had to make major offseason changes. Now under HC Chris Koclanes paired with GM Curt Miller, the Wings also ride on a plethora of new additions; Starting with No.1 draft pick Paige Bueckers, they also added a defensive duo of Dijonai Carrington & Ty Harris, along with Nalyssa Smith from IND.

The new star duo of Bueckers and Ogunbowale noted they are, “aggressive in looking for our shots, yet also aggressive in looking for others… push the tempo, open up the floor”.

Dallas is likely to remain the fastest team in the league, and their defensive success will have to stem from Pts off TOV to lead into fastbreak. Their paint defense, which surrendered the most opponent points last season, likely remains a problem.

The Lynx didn’t need to change much. This squad just came off a finals appearance vs NYL, being as close to a title as you can be without winning one, suffering an OT Game 5 loss. The team got even deeper, as they welcomed back F Jessica Shepard from her overseas obligations. They also picked up Marieme Badiane, the starting center for the France Olympic team that just went toe-to-toe with The Americans, for her first season in the WNBA.

Napheesa Collier put up an incredible 2024 season, with 20.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 3.3 STL+BLKs. This campaign would have likely won her the MVP award in any season but the last, where A’Ja Wilson put up possibly the greatest individual season ever.

Collier, McBride, Hiedeman and Courtney Williams all had active offseasons in Unrivaled. McBride went from Unrivaled to play for her Turkey club overseas, as she remains one of the most decorated international players. Due to this, she hasn’t a preseason game and may not suit up for opening day so her body can get reacclimated.

Reeve, May 13th: “I’ll just keep saying we’re in touch with Mac, everything’s fine, just personal.”

McBride suited up every game but the finale last season. Minnesota should still roll. Aces beat DAL in the first game of the preseason 112-78, with a 55-38 advantage after the starter-dominated 1H.

Sparks vs Valkyries:
The WNBA welcomes the Valkyries as their newest expansion team, under another first-time HC Natalie Nakase. Nakase has a stacked coaching resume, serving as an assistant coach for the Clippers before joining Becky Hammon in Las Vegas. Nakase is looking to win, and win quickly, so she spent her offseason with The Celtics HC Joe Mazulla, who is the youngest HC to win an NBA championship in the last 50 years.

Quotes from sbnation’s article:

“[Joe was] like, ‘this is me, this is who I am, and take it however you want,’” Nakase said. “And I think it’s kind of his mentality, right? Like, win-or-die.”

“His preparation was immaculate — how much time he put in, and just the way he has a very cohesive staff,” Nakase said. “It was really impressive. Everyone [on the coaching staff] was very efficient and thorough with what they brought to the table. And, at the end of the day, they always leave with a unified front.”

When building their team, the Valkyries were allowed to select one player from each team in the league, though each one of those teams could protect 5 of their roster. This left with a committee of “6th Women” with Monique Billings, Tiffany Hayes, Temi Fagbenle, Kayla Thornton and Veronica Burton as the starting 5. 

The Sparks also have a new HC Lynne Roberts, who coached NCAA Division 1 for 18 years. Their biggest offseason acquisition was Kelsey Plum from Las Vegas, while also expecting Cameron Brink to return in June after she tore her ACL the season prior.

The Sparks had the worst record in the WNBA last year, but they had the Lady Vols Rickea Jackson and Rae Burrell, along with 3v3 Olympian Dearica Hamby all participate in the Unrivaled league.

These two met in the preseason, where Sparks secured a narrow 83-82 road victory. Oddly enough, the game’s top scorer this game Laeticia Amihere was waived by Golden State. This game showed just how many touches the two-women game of Plum and Hamby will be, who already built a connection together during their time in Vegas.

NBA Money Baller Report – Saturday, May 10

Published: Friday, May 9, 10:32 PM CT

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Celtics @ Knicks – Game 3

📊 Matchup Notes:

  • 4 Baller Systems active on the Celtics
  • 3 Baller Systems active on the Under

Play: Celtics -5.5

Breakdown:
This one checks every box of a textbook zig-zag spot. Boston enters desperate, down 0-2, and the pressure is on – both from the scoreboard and the media. Jayson Tatum’s performance has been under fire, and we’re banking on a big-time response from the Celtics’ leader.

Historically, Boston thrives in this kind of spot:

  • 11-4 ATS this season as favorites of 2.5 to 7 points
  • Road teams have been covering well in this year’s playoffs 32-25-1 ATS (w/ Thunder/Nuggets Game 3 pending).
  • The Knicks are 0-4-1 ATS as home underdogs
  • This postseason: Knicks are 2-6 1H ATS and 6-2 ATS – we think the 1st half angle is another one to tackle – Celtics 1H -4.

Meanwhile, the Knicks’ offense is due for some regression, and with three systems also pointing to the under, this could be a grind-it-out type of battle.



Warriors @ Timberwolves – Game 3

📊 Matchup Notes:

  • 1 Baller System on the Under
  • Warriors: 1-8 1H O/U as a home underdog
  • Timberwolves: 7-18 1H O/U as a road favorite

Play: 1H Under 97

Breakdown:
This isn’t the same Warriors team we’re used to seeing – and with Stephen Curry still out, Golden State is relying more on defense and slowing the pace. That plays directly into the 1H Under.

Add in a supporting Baller System supporting the under, and we’re locking in on the 1H Under 97. Expect a slower, defensive grind early before things potentially open up late.


Get all your edges, trends, and systems in one spot at themoneyballer.com. Let’s keep stacking winners.

Betting Smart on NBA Playoff Openers: Why Round 1, Game 1 ‘Unders’ Are Worth Watching




Understanding the Dynamics of NBA Playoff Openers

The opening games of the NBA Playoffs are a dramatic shift from the regular season’s rhythm. The intensity ratchets up, the pace slows, and the focus on half-court defense becomes more pronounced. This change, combined with the pressure of the playoffs, tends to lower scoring across the board, making the ‘unders’ a compelling bet in early games.


Historical Trends in Round 1, Game 1

Our analysis reveals that the initial games of the first round are particularly conducive to unders. Since the 2018-19 NBA playoffs, Game 1 ‘unders’ are hitting at a 64.6% rate (31-17). All eight Game 1s stayed under the total in 2018-2019, with an impressive average margin of 16.9 points.


The 4th vs. 5th Seed Phenomenon

An even more intriguing pattern emerges in the matchups between the 4th and 5th seeds. These games, typically among the most evenly matched in the first round, have historically been lower scoring. Since the 2014-2015 playoffs, these specific Game 1s have gone 16-4 to the under. The competitive nature of these matchups tends to result in a tighter, more defensive-oriented game, which is perfect for under bets.


Betting Strategy for Game 1 ‘Unders’

While the data supports a strong case for betting unders in the first game of the playoffs, a strategic approach is crucial. It’s not advisable to make this bet blindly. Instead, consider the following factors to enhance your betting strategy:

  • Defensive Rankings: Focus on games involving teams with strong defensive records throughout the season.
  • Pace of Play: Teams that prefer a slower, more deliberate pace are more likely to contribute to lower-scoring games.
  • Rivalry and Playoff History: Games involving longstanding rivals or teams with a history of intense playoff encounters are often tighter and more tactical.


Conclusion

The first game of the NBA playoffs offers a unique betting opportunity for those looking at the ‘unders’. By combining historical data with a careful analysis of the teams involved, bettors can maximize their chances of successful wagers.

To stay ahead of the game and access expert analysis and real-time data, subscribe to our “Baller Access” premium service, ensuring you never miss an opportunity to bet smarter.

NBA Play-In Money Baller Report – Friday, April 18

Published: Thursday, April 17, 11:40 PM CT

We’re down to the final two Play-In Tournament matchups — the winners punch their ticket as the 8th seed in their respective conferences and lock in a first-round playoff date.

Let’s break down the sharp angles for both games. 🔥



Heat @ Hawks

📊 Matchup Notes:

  • Baller System: Backing road favorites who won the previous head-to-head matchup at home
  • Heat: 5-1 ATS on the road in their last 15
  • Heat: 48-32-2 1H ATS overall / 11-7-1 1H ATS as road favorites
  • Model edge: Hawks (+1) have just a 48.7% chance of covering

✅ Play: Heat 1H PK
This is a first-half only spot, and the data backs it up. Miami has been elite in 1H splits all season, especially on the road, while they’ve shown a tendency to blow leads late. Tyler Herro has stepped up big-time in the absence of Jimmy Butler, and with Trae Young not fully healthy and coming off an ejection, the Heat should come out focused and aggressive. Even if Atlanta rallies late, the first half edge is clearly with Miami.


Mavericks @ Grizzlies

📊 Matchup Notes:

  • Grizzlies: 80% to the Under at home over their last 15 (1-4-0 O/U)
  • Baller System: Unders in quick-turnaround rematches when total opens lower than previous game
  • Mavericks: 21-9 O/U as road underdogs



✅ Play: Under 221.5
This is a great setup for an Under play. These teams just faced off to end the regular season — that game closed at 228.5 and went Over, but now we see a total of 221.5, a 7-point drop. That tells us something: the market expects regression, particularly on Dallas’s side. Luka and company shot lights-out last time, but that’s unlikely to repeat. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, continue to play a gritty, slower style with strong defensive focus at home. Even though the Mavericks have hit overs as road underdogs, the matchup and the system both favor a more controlled pace and lower score.