Category: Betting

The WNBA 2025 All Star Roster has been set, formatted by team (starters, reserves*):
(DAL) – ^Paige Bueckers
(IND) – *Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston, Kelsey Mitchell
(MIN) – *Napheesa Collier, Courtney Williams
(ATL) – Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard
(NYL) – Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart
(SEA) – Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins, ^Gabby Williams
(LVA) – A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young
(WSH) – ^Sonia Citron, ^Kiki Iriafen
(PHX) – Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas
(CHI) – Angel Reese
(LA) – Kelsey Plum
(GSV) – ^Kayla Thornton

We have 5 new All Stars (marked with ^), with the most controversial being the rookie Mystic duo in Citron and Iriafen. This is mostly due to the snubbing of Brittney Sykes, whose career high of 17.9 PPG along with 4.6 APG (team high) and a steal failed to garner her first ever All Star appearance. Almost all of her tweets in June were voting reminders, so this stings. She joins a “snub list” of Hamby, Brionna Jones, Azura Stevens and Arike Ogunbowale.

As a sidenote, this was also the backbone for Sykes’ Most Improved Player campaign, yet Thornton is now a clear frontrunner (+25).

The first game today is Atlanta hosting Golden State, a battle of two winning teams. The Valkyries are the league’s best Paint defense in their L10 games, surrendering just 27 Pts in The Paint per game. They are tied with their most recent opponent, Minnesota, in being league-best in DRTG in that span. Just 28 of The Lynx’s 82 Pts in the last contest came in the paint.

This Valkyries team is not afraid to throw doubles at anything or anyone, as their lateral movement allows for constant switching. The most common of these is high screen on Ball Handlers off PnR, or collapsing inside on the Roller. Best way to beat this team is through quality downhill drive-and-kick action, quick PnR or offball action.

The biproduct of this is that GSV surrenders by far the most OPP Corner 3s in the league. The true ATL starting rotation can stick a lot of players here (Howard, Canada, Gray), yet the bench unit of Coffey and Caldwell lead the team in actual volume. High kickout frequency from bigs has left to a number of good assist numbers:
– Alanna Smith 6 Ast (19min)
– Hamby 5 Ast / Azura 4 Ast
– Shepard 5 Ast
– Satou 5 Ast

These 5 players were each in the top 10 assist numbers against Valkyries in their L10 games.

The Dream defense is borderline the opposite of Golden State’s, as they have allowed the fewest OPP 3PA in their L10 games, which includes the fewest Corner 3PA. As a result, ATL has struggled mightly against the Pick-and-Roll system. They currently rank 10th or worse at limiting points from PnR Handlers, Rollers, Post Up, Handoff and Off Screen.

This seems best for Tiffany Hayes, who will also be the squad she played her first decade in the league for. She dropped 20 Points in her last full game vs Atlanta. It’s likely we see a lot of Pick-and-Roll with Hayes and Thornton, so both sides are scoring threats. Recent duos have been succeeding:
– Sabrina / Stewart 15 & 18 FGA
– Wheeler / Ogwumike 17 & 14 FGA
– Court / Phee 16 & 18 FGA
– Paige / Yueru 15 & 9 FGA
– Atkins / Reese 22 & 11 FGA

Arike Ogunbowale failed to make the All-Star team for the first time since her rookie year, yet won’t be able to get revenge due to a thumb injury keeping her out against Phoenix. She missed the last meeting between these two just 4 days ago, but that didn’t stop Dallas from notching a shocking 9 Point victory (they were up 18 at halftime!).

The top two performers of this game? Kahleah Copper and Aziaha James, who dropped 33 and 28 Points – yet Satou and Paige also broke the 20 point mark as well. Aziaha is a bucket, and had 20 of her points in the first half off a perfect 7/7 shooting. Get a lot of shades of Allisha Gray, as another lefty with a silky smooth jumper and slashing ability. Issue for PHX is that both Copper and Satou will be out today.

With this PHX duo off the court this season, Natasha Mack and Alyssa Thomas leads the team in usage rate at 27.5% each. Thomas is responsible for 48.8% of the team’s assists in this sample, yet that is just 7.5 per 30min.

The Wings started a true double big lineup of Li Yueru and Geiselsoder, which left them with a +12 rebounding record. PHX needs to be effective from pull up shooters in Akoa-Makani and Whitcomb in order to find success here. Whitcomb gets up 12 shots per 30min.

Sunday’s selection of games tips off at noon with The Liberty hosting Seattle at Barclay’s. New York was the best team at home in the 2024 season, boasting a 16-4 record that has trickled over to a 7-1 record to kick off the 2025 campaign.

These two played their first and only meeting on the season thus far on June 22nd, where The Storm posted up a double-digit home victory. However, The Liberty were short Ionescu, Jones and Fiebich for this game – two of whom will now be present. Fiebich is likely to defend Gabby Williams, who posted up 16 FGA – joining both Ogwumike and Diggins-Smith in that volume – against the weak NYL defense.

Leonie Fiebich played 33 minutes in the starting lineup for her first game back with the team, and held her primary defensive assignment of Rickea Jackson to just 8 points off 3-10 shooting. However, the 6’4″ German product can switch onto anyone, and that length still didn’t prevent The Sparks from notching 40 PITP.

Only LA has surrendered more OPP PITP in their L10 games than NYL, who are giving up 38.6 PITP themselves. The top volume within 8′ against NYL in these 10 games has come from these players:
– Hamby 12 FGA
– Iriafen 10 FGA
– Williams 10 FGA
– Boston 9 FGA
– Angel 9 FGA
– Brionna 8.5/gp

Seattle as a unit already prefers to operate inside, so this is going to be another mountain that The Liberty have to climb.

Another NYL defensive trait we’ve witnessed over this span is just how much Reb+Ast they have been allowing.They are ranking B3 in OPP RPG, OPP APG, and OPP 2nd Chance Pts. The best RA performers against NYL in their L8 games:
– Clark 17 RA (8 Reb, 9 Ast)
– Allisha 15 RA (9 Reb, 6 Ast) / Canada 13 RA (5 Reb, 8 Ast)
– Alyssa Thomas 23 RA per game (12 Reb, 11 Ast)
– Rhyne Howard 16 RA (7 Reb, 9 Ast)
– Gabby Williams 16 RA (6 Reb, 10 Ast)
– Burton 15 RA (5 Reb, 10 Ast)
– Plum 15 RA (7 Reb, 8 Ast)

Absolute insanity. Expecting the two leaders in pass volume of Gabby Williams and Diggins-Smith to both thrive.

Natasha Cloud is back on Cloud 9, currently leading The Liberty in PPG across their last three games at 19 PPG; The scoring bout is especially impressive when you factor that she was notching just 5 PPG in the 11 games prior. This has been purely intentional, with double-digit field goal looks in each of the contests, will see if it continues today at noon.

“My job as a point guard is to get two feet in the paint whether that’s for myself or to spray out to my teammates and put them in successful situations so… with starting these games… I just wanted to be more aggressive getting downhill so… I can be the best version of myself for us.”

In the L5 games, Seattle is giving up the most PITP, beating out today’s opponent by 0.4 PITP per game. Brondello did a full benching of Nyara Sabally, who saw just 5 minutes of action and lost her starting spot for Kennedy Burke (30min).

The Aces take on Connecticut after receiving a beating from The Fever, and if they lose this game then Becky Hammon may explode. She noted this after Indiana:
“How many layups they got? They were in the paint downhill layups all night. And quite frankly, they were the first half um of our of our first game, too. So, uh when you’re giving up layups, those are those are hard to to combat. But we had no presence on either end of the floor.”

“Maybe we shake something up. I don’t know. Maybe shake up the starting lineup. We got to look at something because starts haven’t been good, you know, and and it’s tough to to know that”

Granted, Connecticut is still dead last in both ORTG and DRTG over any span of the season – this team is another level of bad. Perhaps the most shocking metric in their L10 games is the 40.1 OPP RPG let up per game. This has featured 12 individual starters notching 8+ rebounds despite 11/12 playing under 31 minutes.

In the prior meeting two weeks ago, Las Vegas notched 45 Rebounds. They also opened this game up on a 19-0 run. All 5 Aces’ starters notched 4+ rebounds in the opening half while the scoring group of Gray, Young, Loyd and A’ja each produced 8+ Points off 6+ FGA.

The Sun haven’t played a game yet in July, while Tina Charles hasn’t played a 4th quarter in two straight games due to blowouts. The Aces remain the worst Paint defense on the year, while not improving much over their recent games. Don’t know if I could promote any full game spots for Connecticut, yet frontcourt players with 10+ 1H minutes have been able to succeed vs Las Vegas (L5 Games):
– ONO 12 PRA
– Howard 17 PRA / Boston 22 PRA
– AT 16 PRA
– Austin 12 PRA / Iriafen 11 PRA

Tina Charles is set at 10.5 1HPRA.

The final game is Chicago at Minnesota. The Lynx are now 10-0 at home, being the final remaining undefeated team on their home turf this season. While a matchup vs Chicago is one they would typically win with ease, The Lynx are on the second leg of their back-to-back in addition to Alanna Smith receiving a number of injuries last night that she failed to return from. Unsure if she plays today.

Angel Reese has been on an absolute rebounding tear over the last 4 games, with 16+ in each contest as she remains without her frontcourt teammate Kamilla Cardoso (AmeriCup). The Lynx have remained in the bottom third as a rebounding unit. In the 2 games that Cardoso has been gone, we saw Hamby post up 20 Pts along with Thornton notching 29 herself.

Atkins has been running nearly all 40 minutes since Cardoso left, and is often splitting facilitation duties with Rachel Banham. However, the tougher the defensive matchup the more Chicago relies on Atkins solely due to her offensive security while remaining defensively solid.

LAS v IND:
The Sparks made a lot of backcourt changes in the opening week of July. Let me start off by saying, justice for Julie Vanloo. The Valks organization blindsided her by waiving her after Belgium won the EuroBasket championship! Fiebich noted this before Liberty’s Thursday game:

“It’s just tough for her, obviously. If I would win the European Championship and I would not be able to celebrate with my team and get cut the next day, then I would be fuming. I can only imagine what she’s feeling right now… As an emotional player and person that she is, that would be probably double [for me].”

Suited up for LA last game without a name on her Jersey, though played just 2 minutes – didn’t even know the playbook. She will be joining her Belgium teammate Julie Allemand, who played 38 minutes against The Liberty.

Rae Burrell returned from her right leg injury suffered in preseason, looking to climb up in minutes until likely being a starter, yet likely to remain around 15 minutes vs Indiana. Her return, along with Vanloo, marked the waiving of Odyssey Sims & Shey Peddy.

Cameron Brink remains out against Indiana, but note that her return from a long ACL recovery is likely coming within the next few games.

With all the backcourt changes, Plum still notched a healthy 8 assists off of 15 potentials – yet Allemand was second to her with 9 herself. The Sparks use a ton of high screen handoff action, but Hamby did notch just 5 potentials, her lowest mark in games with >25min since the start of June.

This meeting will be a rematch of a meeting between these two 10 days ago, where Sparks won by 10. Pretty shocking result, given The Fever have won 3 straight games since that that event – including a Commissioner’s Cup win and an absolute domination over Las Vegas.

Clark (groin) remains out for her 5th straight game.

We saw a ton of similar defensive approaches from Indiana vs Las Vegas as we’ve seen from The Mystics, where they high trap off PnR (notably on Jackie Young, 13 Pot). This will almost certainly extend to Kelsey Plum today, who did shoot just 11 times in the meeting prior.

The Sparks in their L10 games have surrendered the most PITP in the league, at over 39 per game. They also surrender the most OPP STL and OPP BLK, while ranking dead last in DRTG (CON doesn’t count anymore). IND had 16 stocks in the prior meeting.

However in that meeting, it was LA who won that battle with 42 PITP. Azura Stevens went 8-9 in the Restricted Area, while Hamby was 4-4. Azura has notched double-digit Points in 12/12 games against non Top-3 Rim defenses with 24+ minutes.

Indiana has also ranked as the league’s worst Post Up defense, which specifically helped Stevens and Rickea Jackson.

Sparks handoff offense is a pretty solid counter at least. For sizing purposes, Indiana has to use Lexie Hull on Rickea Jackson. Rickea defenders have thrived on the glass:
– Allen 5 Reb (26min), 4 Reb (19min)
– Gabby 4 Reb
– Jackie 8 Reb
– Hull 9 Reb
– Sabrina 6 Reb

The Fever have been the best rebounding unit in their L10 games, surrendering just 30 per game. Meanwhile, LAS has allowed 7 starters in their L10 games to notch double-digit rebs after Stewart had 14 last game; All 7 of these starters were Power Forwards or Centers.

Natasha Howard now has logged three straight double-doubles. Natasha Howard is the frontcourt usage leader for this team with Clark/Dantas out this season, and joins Kelsey Mitchell as the only two players with >20% usage rate this season with CC off.

Kelsey Mitchell has notched her best passing volume since the start of June, yet Aari McDonald continues to run the show. 7 assists vs Las Vegas in 31 minutes, remaining pretty blowout proof. Without Peddy/Sims in the mix, McDonald

GSV v MIN:
The Valks are back to full strength, welcoming Salaun and Zandalasini back from EuroBasket. Nakase is seemingly favoring Kaitlyn Chen over Vanloo. Only Carla Leite is out today.

The Valks defense has allowed the fewest PITP in their L10 games at just 27 – being the only team allowing sub 30. Alanna Smith notched just 1 total FGA last meeting in a 11 point Minnesota victory. The Valks won 6 of their next 7 home games after, yet now it’s The Lynx’s term to have a month at home.

Of course, the nature of their suffocating interior defense has left them surrendering the 3rd most OPP 3PA. This isn’t a weakness, however, as opponents are only shooting 30.2% on these looks. Top option shooters haven’t found a ton of success:
– Clark 0-7
– Sabrina 1-7 (Burke 9 3PA)
– Arike 3-8
– Atkins 2-6 (Nurse 11 3PA)

McBride could see a ton of looks from off ball sets, yet only put up 3 total looks last meeting as Thornton stayed on her hip. All three of her looks came from transition.

Courtney Williams with 17 FGA last meeting, as McBride handling would just lead to immediate blitzing from GSV – hence her zero halfcourt set 3PA. All action through Williams today, while avoiding the length Salaun & Thornton defensively.

Janelle Salaun returns after a month, and her last game for The Valks was her best of her WNBA season – producing 21 Pts and 8 Rebs in her 39 minutes of action. Would love to back her again, but Nakase can throw out any rotation here.

This influx of players is likely why Thornton’s lines are by far the lowest we’ve seen since May. She is averaging 17.6 PPG in the last 30 days yet has a 12.5 Pt line, which may be a bit steep of an overadjustment against a Lynx defense whose strength is their perimeter.

The Liberty are struggling without their non-American starters in Jonquel Jones (ankle) and Leonie Fiebich (EuroBasket Tournament), posting a 109.4 DRTG in their last 5 games (11th on year). While a victory over Atlanta did come in these last 5 games, that was the only game where Jonquel was able to run over 10 minutes – they lost 3 of the other 4 games.

They are about to be home for 8 straight games once July begins.

This prior meeting just shy of two weeks ago featured Sabrina Ionescu’s best scoring performance of the season, going for 34 Pts off 12-20 shooting. Sabrina’s last two games vs ATL has recorded 30+ Pts each. 12 of these 20 shots were off Pick-and-Roll, Handoff, or Off Screen action; Atlanta ranks 11th or worse in OPP Pts scored from all three of those playtypes, including recently:
– McBride 18 Pts (11 FGA)
– Atkins 29 Pts (22 FGA)
– Arike 21 Pts (14 FGA)
– Citron 17 Pts (14 FGA)
– Mabrey 34 Pts (22 FGA)

The NYL offense when facing ATL is so dependent on Pick-and-Roll or Handoff scoring that Cloud notched just 5 assists off of 9 potentials – the lowest potential mark she has notched in the Fiebich-less games. In fact, Courtney Williams on Friday was the first player in the entire month of June to notch over 6 assists vs Atlanta.

The Dream offense remembered Griner on Friday, after Smesko directly addressed her lack of involvement in postgame:
“That’s on me. We got to find her a way to get more deep touches, she is so good around the rim. We have had games where we have been hitting the threes, so it was easy to forget about the post presence with Bri and BG. Got to figure out a way to get her more involved in the offense”

The first play of the following game was immediately drawn up for BG, who ended the game with 16 Points, the first time she notched over 10 points in the last eight games. However, she still ran only 24 minutes in regulation without closing the 4th Quarter.

NYL’s current defensive weakness is their perimeter defense, surrendering the most OPP 3PA this month at 29.3. In addition they are B3 in OPP RPG, OPP APG, and OPP 2nd Chance Pts. The best RA performers against NYL in their L5 games:
– Alyssa Thomas 23 RA per game (12 Reb, 11 Ast)
– Rhyne Howard 16 RA (7 Reb, 9 Ast)
– Gabby Williams 16 RA (6 Reb, 10 Ast)
– Burton 15 RA (5 Reb, 10 Ast)

Rhyne, Gabby, and AT saw a large majority of their rebounds as defenders of Breanna Stewart. However, Rhyne matched up with Stewart as the ATL duo was able to match with NYL’s double-big of Sabally/Jones. Likely Burke starts instead of Gardner for size. Granted, matchup has seemed to be irrelevant as 16 starters in just these five games have 5+ Reb against The Liberty. NYL is a poor OREB unit without their key pieces.

Chicago rematches Los Angeles just 5 games later, and also was The Sky’s only win at home in June; Back on the road here. This most recent meeting came right after HC Tyler Marsh’s important press note on Chicago’s perimeter defense, “Just running people off the line at this point. Teams make a lot of threes because they also shoot a lot of threes against us and so we have to adjust to that… knowing that teams are playing kind of outside in against us, so just higher level of aggression running people off the line.”

The Sparks shot 7-26 from deep in the head to head, but then The Valks shot 11-30, so unsure if they made any significant improvements.

The Sky will be without Cardoso for the foreseeable future as she participates in AmeriCup for Team Brasil, which will make their interior defense almost as poor as their perimeter. This is screaming for another good game from the LAS frontcourt in Hamby and Stevens. Hamby in particular is intriguing, as a majority of her game was directly defended by Cardoso, yet now gets to take on the veteran Elizabeth Williams. At 32 years of age, Williams and Reese individually allow the highest OPP PITP per 30min when they are on the court.

Hamby notched nearly 3/4s of her 14 FGA in the prior meeting with Williams on the court, even going right at her when Cardoso was being checked for a concussion here.

Plum notched 16 potentials in the prior meeting as LAS attacked from deep, and should be in for an easier day as the paint defense softens. Sims returns, yet this hasn’t affected Plum’s facilitation duties. Of the players to notch over 10 potentials vs CHI, only 66% of what Plum has averaged vs this team thus far, they produced:
– Dream: Canada 8, Rhyne 4
– Mercury: AT 8 & 15 Ast
– Liberty: Cloud 8, Sabrina 7
– Wings: Paige 8, Arike 7, DiJonai 6
– Fever: Clark 10, Boston 5, McDonald 3

Luckily for Chicago’s offense, The Sparks have had the 3rd worst DRTG in June and the worst in their last 5 games. In that 5 game stretch, they have surrendered nearly 40 PITP per game, while also ranking B3 in OPP 2nd Chance Pts, Fastbreak Pts and APG. This inside damage has logically been dealt by the inside players:
– Collier 32 Pts (16 FGA)
– Cardoso 27 Pts (15 FGA) / Angel 18 Pts (12 FGA)
– Ogwumike 26 Pts (16 FGA)

All in the L5 games. Atkins led this team in potentials vs LA (13), and in the first game without Cardoso (20!).

Kahleah Copper almost fully back so this Mercury Trio is in full swing, which would make them even deadlier than they already have been. With Copper, Phoenix is 4-0, coming off a dominant 15 point victory against The Liberty. This win was logical, as NYL’s weak perimeter defense aligned perfectly with a PHX offense that leads the league in 3PA per game.

The Aces, however, have been a horrible Paint defense instead – surrendering the 2nd most PITP in their L5 games. Alyssa Thomas, of course, leads the charge in Paint FGA per game (9.0 with Copper), yet Copper has produced more than Satou has since her return.

At a certain point in the 3rd Quarter last game vs Mystics, Becky Hammon benched the entire starting lineup out of pure frustration. She noted, “Terrible. Start to finish. We lost every quarter but that fourth quarter and a lot of that is because our bench came in and competed and did a great job. That’s what we’re going to need… just not no togetherness defensively honestly.”

Then we got this too from Dana Evans:
“Becky’s been kind of teasing a platoon swap, a five in five out in that third quarter. It happened tonight… just to pick our starters up… we got to give them a boost. We got to be a spark off the bench.”

Sabally was the only starter last meeting to notch over 3 DREB, ending with 7 herself. The Aces team in general has conceded the 3rd most OPP RPG this month, and PHX’s zone leaves Satou in great position each time to be the beneficiary. Satou joins this list of frontcourt players to succeed in June:
– Alanna 13 Reb
– Shakira 13 Reb / Iriafen 9 Reb
– Thornton 11 Reb
– Boston 10 Reb
– Stevens 10 Reb / Hamby 8 Reb
– Ogwumike 10 RPG / Gabby 8 RPG

The Mercury defense has ranked relatively mid-pack in all key categories, yet do rank dead last in OPP Fastbreak Pts this month. This fits Jackie’s profile the best, yet historically it has been A’ja Wilson who has dominated this team. Averaging 31 PPG across four 2024 meetings, A’ja notched 21+ Points in all 4 games along with 14.5 RPG. Of course all PHX data has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the team had a complete offseason transformation from being one of the worst defenses last year.

Unsure what needs to be said about this Minnesota game, as hosting The Sun to kick off their homestretch is a recipe for a dominant victory. With Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks due to a hyperextended knee, the Sun get even worse, as she has the single-biggest impact on their ORTG as anyone on the team – going from 92.1 to 83.8 when she’s off the court. CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in OPP RPG
– 13th in DRTG / ORTG / NETRTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA / OPP FTM
– 12th in OPP 3PM

Collier had 33 Points, 6 STL+BLKs and 11 Reb in the prior meeting. Smith had 6 stocks in just 18 minutes of action (foul issues).

The Ballhalla tour continues, as they are on their 5th & final home game before being on the road for 8/10 July games. The Valkyries at home are 4-2 this month, 3rd in both DRTG & NETRTG in this span. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)
– Sabrina 1 FGM (11 FGA) / Stew 2 Pts (2H)
– Atkins 20 Pts (16 FGA)

The Valkyries have allowed just 27.8 OPP PITP per game this month, a league-best mark, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Ogwumike should struggle, yet SEA offense is so spread out.

The Valkyries offensive players are a revolving door, seems like a pure hot hand approach. Kaitlyn Chen, the first ever Taiwanese WNBA player, had just 5 total points on the season before running 25 minutes and doubling that on Friday vs Chicago. In turn, that was Burton’s first non-blowout game with sub 25min all June.

The last time Burton faced SEA, she notched 9 assists off of 15 potentials. She has averaged 7.8 APG at home with 25+ minutes on the court – but Nakase can go to anyone at anytime, only Thornton has been safe.

We kick off in Dallas, where the ideal storyline for the game was Clark vs Bueckers, a battle of the two most recent 1st Round Picks. However, Clark missed Thursday’s game vs LA due to a groin injury suffered against Seattle; She is considered day-to-day. Indiana, who is down Bonner (quit) and Dantas (AmeriCup), only had a 6-lady rotation vs LA, so this back-to-back could not come at a worse time.

The Fever’s June defense continues to have a specific identity of surrendering a whole bunch of Paint Pts (39.3, 13th), while in turn allowing little, to no, perimeter production (5.2 3PM/gp, 2nd). The Wings just recently acquired Li Yueru from The Storm, where she played a career-high 34 minutes vs The Dream on Tuesday. She has posted a double-double in both career games with 30+ minutes, with 15 rebounds vs ATL and a shot profile that is pretty fearless – at least in the first quarter, with 7 FGA to kick off that game.

Koclanes on Yueru noted, “She is just a motor up and down… extremely physical screener helping our guards get some separation and then continuing to roll and put pressure on the defense… She’s going to keep you honest—she can hit a bunch of mid-range, she’s got really good touch from the perimeter.”

The Wings have surrendered the most Free Throws this month, and currently its Aari McDonald who leads this unit in FTA per game (5.8!). Otherwise, the defensive weaknesses of this squad are their OPP Pts off TOV (18.3, 12th) and OPP 3PM (9.1, 11th). While three individual players already notching double-digit 3PA vs DAL this month should be an encouraging sign for Clark, it’s less encouraging that Clark has made just 1/23 3PA across her last three games. DAL likely remains without DiJonai Carrington as their POA defender.

Napheesa Collier, the current frontrunner in the MVP race, is remaining questionable due to a back injury. Reeve noted that this was “something she has been dealing with”, so will see if she returns here before Minnesota has a 4-game home stretch. She was active in shootaround before last game, so leaning a bit more towards her available – especially from a recent loss.

The Dream defense has surrendered the fewest OPP 3PM this month, at just 4.3 per game. The current leader in 3PT volume for Lynx has been McBride, throwing up nearly 7 attempts per game – practically doubling her next closest teammate of Phee. Only two players have notched over six 3PA vs Dream (Mabrey & Sabrina with 8 each), while ATL also plays at the slowest PACE in the league.

Alanna Smith has notched 11+ Pts in just 5/23 games with 2 or fewer 3PM, on the road, and alongside Collier/McBride/Williams since the start of the last season.

The Dream have been more susceptible to interior, downhill guard play. On the season they rank B3 against PnR Ball Handlers, Off-Screen action, and Handoff Pts. If it’s anyone, then seems like Williams is set to succeed, despite failing to notch o13.5 Pts in any of the 4 meetings vs ATL last season. Mabrey, Ionescu, Ogunbowale, Atkins and Sykes averaged 26 PPG as a group in seven of ATL’s eight June games. Kelsey Mitchell was the only top guard not mentioned there, who shot 5-16 in her blowout loss.

Granted, McBride averaged 25.3 PPG in her 3 full games vs ATL last season. She likely leads MIN in specific Off Screen and Handoff sets.

On the other end, Atlanta had one of the worst offensive performances we’ve seen from a team this season on Tuesday. They scored just 55 points off 10 assists, with Rhyne Howard alone contributing 23 of those, while notching 0 assists off of 10 potentials. However, Rhyne crossed 15 points just once in 4 meetings vs Lynx last season.

Griner hasn’t notched over 10 points in 7 straight games for Atlanta, yet Dream HC Karl Smesko also held BG to sub 20 minutes in three of those games. However, he noted in the post game, “That’s on me. We got to find her a way to get more deep touches, she is so good around the rim. We have had games where we have been hitting the threes, so it was easy to forget about the post presence with Bri and BG. Got to figure out a way to get her more involved in the offense“.

Last season, Griner had double-digit points in all 5 games vs Minnesota.

The Storm look to get back on track after losing to Indiana, with a few notes from the press conference on how that went:
“We were one for 10 from three-point range [early]. I thought the quality of looks was great… What hurt us was fast break points too—we’re usually a top team in fast break points and we were getting our stops and just weren’t converting on offense… I thought we were inefficient in transition.”

“We did a poor job of keeping them out the paint tonight—I think they got 50 in the paint… We conceded a lot of offensive rebounds in the first half that hurt us a lot… They out-teamed us tonight. I thought they were better than us in every category tonight and it’s unacceptable.”

Should be an easy get-back against Connecticut, who has been about as bad of a team as you possibly can be professionally. With Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks due to a hyperextended knee, the Sun get even worse, as she has the single-biggest impact on their ORTG as anyone on the team – going from 92.1 to 83.8 when she’s off the court. CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in OPP RPG
– 13th in DRTG / ORTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA
– 12th in OPP 3PM

The last time SEA played a B3 defense, they won by 31 Points vs LAS behind 98 points from the team themselves. The best part of these lopsided SEA games is the previews we get of Dominque Malonga, the 19 year old who SEA selected 2nd overall from France, with a boatload of upside that will be awesome for years to come.

The Liberty without Jonquel/Fiebich are not a championship caliber team. Those two currently lead the team in DRTG when they are individually on the court. Jonquel with her hurt ankle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, while Fiebich is still away at EuroBasket. They have ranked in the same groupings as Chicago, Sparks and Sun in DRTG, Pts off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in these last 5 games. They allow the most OPP 3PM.

Copper, after returning from offseason knee surgery, has now notched three games under her belt this season with steadily increasing minutes. Tibbetts has noted each game that she will “play more” than the last, and last notched 23 minutes six games ago vs Chicago.

Alyssa Thomas went for 15 rebounds vs The Liberty last game, where Jonquel Jones went down in the opening quarter. She now has notched 8+ rebounds in 4/L5 meetings vs Breanna Stewart, while going under 8.5 assists in all 5 of those games.

Cloud absolutely commanded this offense last meeting just over a week ago, with 20 potentials. By far her most assisted target this season is Breanna Stewart, whose been a recipient of 35 of Cloud’s assists – more than all other starters combined. Stewart today has to be the sole focus on PHX’s defense, averaging 25 PPG across her last 5 games.

Fagbenle remains out for GSV, but it has not slowed down this expansion team’s hunger. Do not sleep on Ballhalla. The Valkyries at home are 4-2 this month, 3rd in both DRTG & NETRTG in this span. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)
– Sabrina 1 FGM (11 FGA) / Stew 2 Pts (2H)

The Valkyries have allowed just 27.8 OPP PITP per game this month, a league-best mark, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Expect Angel Reese to struggle here.

Reese’s co-star in Kamilla Cardoso has left the team to compete for Brasil in the AmeriCup, which is likely to leave Elizabeth Williams to be inserted in the starting lineup. At 32 years of age, Williams and Reese individually allow the highest OPP PITP per 30min when they are on the court. Monique Billings can thrive here, but Nakase has only shown consistent minutes to Thornton in this frontcourt.

Chicago’s defense has surrendered the most OPP 3PM on the year, yet HC Marsh did finally address this problem ahead of their match vs LA on Tuesday, noting:
“Just running people off the line at this point. Teams make a lot of threes because they also shoot a lot of threes against us and so we have to adjust to that… knowing that teams are playing kind of outside in against us, so just higher level of aggression running people off the line.”

The Sparks shot 7-26 vs CHI, which from a volume standpoint doesn’t exactly make that quote encouraging.

Veronica Burton with 10 assists vs NYL on Wednesday, which is her second double-digit passing effort this season yet was her highest potential assist count at 22. Of the players to notch over 10 potentials vs CHI, which is a mark Burton has had in 12 of her 13 games since the opening, they produced:
– Dream: Canada 8, Rhyne 4
– Mercury: AT 8 & 15 Ast
– Liberty: Cloud 8, Sabrina 7
– Wings: Paige 8, Arike 7, DiJonai 6
– Fever: Clark 10, Boston 5, McDonald 3

Thornton is Burton’s most assisted too teammate.

The Aces picked up a win vs Indiana to end their 3 game skid, and this will be the first leg of a back-to-back to end an eight game stretch that featured 7 at their home stadium. Aces absolutely need to pick up both these wins before entering a 5 game roadtrip, and this starts with Connecticut tonight.

The Connecticut Sun are awful, hosting a 2-12 record that features 6 straight losses, and will be playing one of the trio of Aces, Lynx and Storm for their next six games. In June, they not only have the worst DRTG (113) yet also have the worst ORTG (90.5). Now with Marina Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks, that ORTG falls further on the year to 86.4. CON surrenders 39.1 OPP RPG (13th), 21.3 OPP APG (11th) and 13.8 FGM at the Rim (13th).

Tina Charles with an appalling 34.5% usage rate when Mabrey is off the court this season, producing 21.3 Pts per 30min. Lindsay Allen is the team leader in ball handling now despite being off bench, but we get a lot of Sheldon and Rivers from the starters.

I get most intrigued by the rookie duo of Rivers and Morrow, both extremely talented. Only Rivers has been able to generate consistent minutes as of late, as the LSU product Morrow still has to fight for frontcourt minutes with Charles & Nelson-Ododa. She has averaged 20 PR per game across her last three, despite playing just under 20 minutes per contest.

The Aces defense has surrendered the 3rd most PITP in June, by far the worst aspect of their defense. A’ja noted in postgame that they, “Really need to defend the Pick-and-Roll better” after Boston went for 26 points. Hammon prior to this game vs Indiana, “Our defense was atrocious again in the third quarter, and that was the first five, not that second unit”. Boston joined 6 other PF/Cs to notch >15 Pts vs Aces this month.

Can take any Aces player to succeed, yet A’ja Wilson likely has the most motivation to get a quality game under her belt; Noted after an 8-21 shooting performance vs Indiana that, “It wasn’t a typical A’ja performance. Every win is a need for us.”. She shot 13 times in the 1H vs Indiana, while also notching 13 in the 1H against CON last meeting – both of these marks being season high.

The Valkyries host Liberty today, who are expected to be with Sabrina Ionescu today after she missed the last game with a neck injury. The Valks have won 4 straight home games, which included double-digit victories over The Aces, Sun and Fever. At home in June they rank:
– 3rd in DRTG
– 1st in OPP PITP (24)
– 1st in OPP Pts off TOV (11)

Most impressively is how they have absolutely swarmed this top options, as the only frontcourt player to reach 20+ Points against them this month has been Napheesa Collier (who else?). Granted, Stewart did cover this mark in both games at Barclay’s to kick off the season, producing 19 FTA in their most recent meeting.

Temi Fagbenle was activated by the team after her EuroBasket team (Great Britain) was eliminated, which further bolsters the interior defense of this squad. Salaun remains out as France is onto the elimination round. With Fagbenle, Thornton and Hayes all in the mix, Billings has yet to crack double-digit scoring.

The Liberty lost their statistically two most impactful defenders in Jonquel Jones (ankle, out 4-6 weeks) and Fiebich (EuroBasket). They have ranked in the same groupings as Chicago, Sparks and Sun in DRTG, Pts off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in these last 4 games.

CHI v ATL:
Chicago will be playing the 2nd leg of their b2b after getting absolutely smoked by PHX. This game followed the trend for CHI, where their defense was successful in limiting OPP PITP (4th in June, 30 for PHX), yet once again get pounded by perimeter action.

The best performances against Chicago in June have all come from these high volume shooters:
– Mabrey 22 Pts (7/17, 12 3PA)
– Plum 28 Pts (9/18, 10 3PA)
– Arike 26 PPG (9.5/20.5, 8.5 3PA)
– Clark 20 Pts (6/13, 8 3PA)
– Rhyne Howard 36 Pts (25 FGA, 19 3PA

Even more remarkable is that 19 players in Chicago’s six June games have been able to notch 15+ points! None of these 19 players did this without at least notching one 3PM.

The choice will always be which perimeter shooter to choose amongst Howard and Gray, but they can work as an absolute tandem unit. Gray had 4 of her 5 assists to Rhyne Howard 3s in the prior meeting, with 9 overall potentials, while Canada had 13 potentials to lead the team.

After The Mercury threw up 25 assists, CHI now allows the 4th most assists this month.

The big CHI frontcourt has been successful at limiting opposing big rebounds, put other lengthy SG/SFs have gotten solid numbers from having to also crash. In this matchup, Rhyne/Gray combined for 15 amongst themselves. With Canada on Atkins, it allows these two to roam off Nurse/Banham/Allen etc. Other block players have succeeded:
– Mabrey 5 Reb
– Clark 10 Reb
– Citron 9 Reb
– Paige 5 Reb

The question that must be asked is whether Chicago can keep this game competitive. The Sky now have the worst ORTG in June, crossing 70 points just once this entire month, which really came off a practice round 4th quarter just last game as they entered the final stretch down 34.

However there is one shining light, and that is shown by ATL allowing the 3rd most PITP this month. The reasoning for this hole has centralized from Griner, whose slow feet has left ATL allowing Top 5 Pts to both PnR Handlers and Roll Men.

Atkins notched 5 assists off a season high 12 potentials last meeting, with 3 of those coming through direct PnR action (all to Reese/Williams). All CHI starters at least got the ability to rest the 4th Q yesterday.

IND v LVA:
The Aces have dropped 3 straight games now before facing Indiana, and Becky Hammon really does not like losing:
“[Our 2nd half] is more than an Achilles heel, it’s a thing. Maybe I’ll just start a different five in the third quarter—we’ll see. Anything’s on the table at this point because it’s gross… I might change who we start in the third quarter.”
“Our defense was atrocious again in the third quarter, and that was the first five, not that second unit. I actually thought our second unit had a good run there”

Would have to imagine it’s Loyd that is mainly on the defensive chopping block, who was already a likely candidate to head to the bench as Hammon wanted to increase her scoring output.

Granted, A’ja Wilson really doesn’t like losing either. The Fever have been one of the most porous interior defenses in June, allowing the 2nd most PITP at 39 per game. This paint success has actually come directly from bigs:
– Breezy Jones 21 Pts (9/14)
– Iriafen 20 Pts (9/11)
– Charles 20 Pts (6/17)
– Thornton 16 (5/11)

The 2024 MVP produced 30+ Pts in a quarter of her games last season.

The Aces, somehow, have surrendered 25.9 OPP Guard RPG in June. This has made up over 70% of the total rebounds they have surrendered in that span (36.4), which is the 2nd most in the league behind Connecticut. This has been genuine success too:
– Arike 8 Reb / DiJonai 8 Reb
– Gabby (F?) 12 Reb
– Sims 4 R / Plum 4 R
– Burton 7 R / Martin 7 R

Clark averaged dead on to 5.5 RPG vs LVA last season, so unlikely that there is much edge in the line there. However, Clark never surpassed 20 Pts or 2 3PM against Aces last season. Granted, it wasn’t due to the lack of volume in the final two meetings, where she shot 20 times per game – in addition to Mitchell’s 17.5 FGA.

Could be in for a game now, as Hammon is correct that The Aces defense has been shaky. They rank 10th in DRTG in June while allowing the 2nd most FGM, specifically being the most from ATB, Midrange and Paint (non-RA). Given Aces don’t often double up top, as lateral speed isn’t a strength with a Gray/Loyd backcourt, it has left stars getting good volume:
– Arike 17 FGA / Paige 19 FGA (best backcourt comparison)
– SDS 16 FGA / Gabby 15.5 FGA
– Williams 23 FGA / McBride 12 FGA

DAL v WSH:
This new Mystics lineup is all about high pressure, which we played into with Rhyne assists last game. With Iriafen and Austin in the lineup, The Mystics have been a relentless unit for high trapping off screens. The two games this has been applied has produced:
– Howard 11 FGA (6 Ast)
– Atkins 9 FGA (7 Ast)

If they can hold Rhyne to 11 FGA, then can expect the same pressure to be applied to Paige Bueckers.

As you could maybe assume, The Mystics defense has now flipped from being a 3PT leak to a complete inside leak, allowing the most Rim FGM in the league in June (16.3 per game). This is 3 more than the next worst team.

Koclanes on Li Yueru:
“Just super impressed with her ability to get up and down and to play through mistakes when it’s not perfect, and then just for her to execute defensively… asking her to get up at the point of attack with players like Marina coming off and being able to hedge and be more aggressive and then being able to read other ones and be able to plug and then be able to pound with Tina. Offensively, she’s just a connector, a fantastic screener… the bonus is she throws in a three, which she’s a fantastic shooter, and that was a big three.”

The Wings still surrendered 36 PITP to CON last game, and remain a B5 Paint D in June. The Mystics frontcourt is a revolving door. Iriafen notched all her 24 minutes in 3Q last game, as she picked up her 5th foul in the opening minute of the 4th then was never put back in the game (in favor of Engstler).

Meanwhile, Austin put up her career high of 28 Points in the 1 point loss being 13/17 from the field. No frontcourt player has gone under 13 points if they shot over 10 times vs DAL this season.

NYL v SEA:
The Wings without Jonquel/Fiebich are not a championship caliber team. Those two currently lead the team in DRTG when they are individually on the court. Jonquel with her hurt ankle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, while Fiebich is still away at EuroBasket.

In the L3 Games, the Liberty have plummeted to a 109.2 DRTG, which is only better than Connecticut (per usual) in June. They have surrendered the most 2nd chance Pts and ATB 3PM in this span. 10 Players in this 3 game span covered Gabby Williams’ 12.5 Pt line, who is already over this mark in 7/L10 games with 30+ minutes. This booms up to 18.3 PPG (4/4) against below average defenses. Keep disrespecting the silver medalist.

As I have thought so often recently, it’s going to be a rough day for Breanna Stewart. Going into a ton of length from SEA. Likely that Williams takes Sabrina here, so Ogwumike/Magbegor can focus all their attention on Stewart.

CON v GSV:
Do not sleep on Ballhalla. The Valkyries have now won three straight home games vs Aces, Storm and Fever. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)

Only PHX this season has allowed fewer PITP than GSV, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Expect Tina Charles to struggle here.

Mabrey is questionable here after hyperextending her knee vs DAL the game before. Looked to be in a lot of pain but she came back out for the 2H and ended up finishing the game. Questionable today, will see.

On the Valks side, anyone can thrive. The most reliable minutes for this team only lands in Thornton and Burton for 30+ a game, while Billings has been pure boom or bust. Despite Thornton being in foul issues last game, the shooting explosion of Chloe Bibby – the Aussie signed 6 days ago – left Billings with sub 20min. Given this was Bibby’s first game with on-floor action, it’s hard to tell how much of her run was hot-hand based.

CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in DRTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA
– 13th in OPP RPG

23 Players in CON’s 7 June games have 5+ rebounds.

Published: Saturday, Jun 21, 12:15 PM CT

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Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx

• 1 Baller Systems on the Over
  • ▲ Play over on team (Lynx) that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games
    
• Lynx: #2 in Offensive Rating
• Sparks: #10 in Defensive Rating
• Sparks: 9-4 O/U, 4-0 O/U as road underdogs
• Baller Matchup algorithm: 55.7% chance of going over the total.

✅ Plays:
Over 163.5
Lynx Team Total Over 86.5

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The first place Lynx are firing on all cylinders lately, 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency and showing strong ball movement night after night. The Sparks, meanwhile, have been a consistent over team — especially on the road — thanks to their defensive struggles.

Between the matchup metrics and the system trends, the value today is clearly on the over. Expect points.

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Napheesa Collier, who is currently the league’s frontrunner MVP, left The Lynx’s last game at the 8min mark in the 3rd Q with a non contact back injury, didn’t return. She now holds a questionable tag after 3 full days of rest, yet there may be more merit to holding her out. The Lynx went 5-1 in their Commissioner’s Cup games with a point differential of +77, garnering them a spot in the finals for The Western Conference along with home court advantage. The Cup will be their 5th game in the next 10 days, which may leave the players accruing some fatigue in the 4 prior regular season games.

Assistant Coach Thibault noted yesterday, “She was feeling decent today, I think Cheryl had said it’s something she’s dealt with before so just trying to get her feeling good, we know it’s a long year”.

Alanna Smith notched a double double in Minnesota’s last game once Collier went down, as Collier injured and Shepard at EuroBasket leaves their frontcourt incredibly depleted. She has the biggest jump in usage with Collier off the court (26.4) versus on (13.9).

Of course, the true usage hog is Courtney Williams. She shot 15 TIMES after Collier went down, which translated to 18 Points. She leads the squad in USG this season with Collier off at 31.7%, producing 18.6 FGA per 30min and 6.5 Ast (47.8% AST rate).

After having foul issues last game vs LA paired with a MIN blowout, Court played just 18 minutes. She has o21.5 PRA in 7/8 games with 24+ minutes this season, and 6/6 with >26.

Another biproduct could be Hamby, who notched 8 DREB defending Collier last game and has 5+ in 10/13 games this season. She has notched 5+ in all meetings vs MIN since the start of last season, with 6+ in 5/6. Minnesota has been a B4 rebounding unit in June, returning to a similar ranking they were last season without Shepard.

On a separate note, Rickea Jackson has really blossomed to form as Sims remains out due to personal reasons. Sparks luckily do get to welcome back Kelsey Plum. Jackson has notched 21.7 PPG across her last 3 games, with 33+ minutes in all of them and a 24% usage rate.