Category: Betting

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I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

• White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts | 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP | lost 14 consecutive games
  • In addition to the clear trends fading Flexen and the White Sox, the Royals have a strong Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’ today, making this our favorite angle of the day.
    
• Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024 | In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
  • There are aligning ‘over’ trends with both teams, and we like this to continue, especially in a hitters’ park like Camden Yards. Zach Eflin makes his first start for the Orioles, and we expect the hard-hitting Orioles to give some run support for their new pitcher. Has the Blue Jays offense woken up? They scored 20 runs in their three-game series against the Rangers.
    

Here are the rest of today’s trends:

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

• Orioles: 23-10-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
• Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024.

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

• Guardians: 16-5 ML when Tanner Bibee starts.
• In L30 days, Guardians: 3-10-3 F5 ML vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Tigers: 16-4 RL (+1.5) as an underdog.

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

• In L30 days, Yankees: 14-4-1 O/U vs. RHP.
• Phillies: 25-4-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
• Phillies: 9-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Zach Wheeler starts.

Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets

• In L30 days, Mets: 23-3 NRFI.
• Mets: 29-11 NRFI as home favorites.
• Twins: 19-8-1 F5 O/U vs. LHP.

Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals

• In L30 days, Cardinals are 18-6 NRFI.
• In L30 days, Rangers are 5-0 YRFI when Nathan Eovaldi starts.

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

• Mariners: 4-16-1 F5 O/U when Logan Gilbert starts.

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

• Reds: 5-0 F5 O/U when Carson Spiers starts.
• In L30 days, Reds: 11-3-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.
• In L30 days, Reds: 18-5 NRFI.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

• Pirates: 8-1-3 F5 ML when Paul Skenes starts.
• In L30 days, Pirates: 20-6 NRFI.

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

• Braves: 13-3 NRFI as a road underdog.

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

• White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts.
• White Sox: 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP.
• White Sox: lost 14 consecutive games.

Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

• Diamondbacks: 5-0 F5 and full game ML when Jordan Montgomery starts.
• Diamondbacks: 11-3 F5 O/U when Montgomery starts.
• In L30 days, Nationals: 0-4 F5 ML when Mitchell Parker starts.

Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

• Date: Sunday, July 28, 2024
• Game: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
• Start Time: 05:10 PM ET

Tonight’s game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park is set to be a high-octane affair, with both teams bringing potent offenses and intriguing pitching matchups to the table.

The Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon has been a significant factor in high-scoring games this season, with a 13-6-1 record to the OVER and an impressive 7-2-0 mark as an away favorite. His xERA of 4.26 suggests he might be vulnerable, especially against a Red Sox lineup that has shown proficiency against pitchers with similar repertoires, who have an ERA of 4.89 against Boston over the past year.

Rodon primarily relies on his 4-seam fastball (53%) and slider (27%). The Red Sox are well-equipped to handle these pitches, ranking 7th in runs above average against both the 4-seam and the slider. This sets up a fascinating duel, as Boston’s hitters have been in fine form recently, ranking 2nd in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ at home over the past month.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck, whose surface-level stats (2.71 ERA) might be masking some underlying concerns, as indicated by his 3.82 xERA. Houck’s pitch mix includes a slider (43%), sinker (31%), and splitter (22%). The Yankees’ lineup, known for its offensive firepower, ranks 9th, 1st, and 2nd in runs above average against these pitches, respectively.

The Yankees have been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road this season, ranking 2nd in both wOBA and wRC+. They also lead the league in runs per game on the road, further emphasizing the challenge Houck will face tonight. Conversely, the Red Sox have had their own issues with run prevention at home, allowing the 6th most runs per game.

With both teams’ offenses firing on all cylinders and the pitchers facing tough matchups, we can expect an exciting and potentially high-scoring game. The storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox adds an extra layer of intensity, ensuring that tonight’s showdown at Fenway Park will be a good one.

My analysis points to a play on the Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 (-108, DraftKings).