Category: Betting

Welcome to the NFL Week 12 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 17-15-2.

 
NFL Week 12 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Fading home teams off OT win
• V. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VI. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• VII. Thanksgiving Angles
• Write-ups and picks

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I. NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Browns: 2-9 Team Total O/U this season (including TNF)
• Dolphins: 0-10 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Texans: 10-1 1H ATS this season.
• Titans: 2-10 ATS in L12 road games.
• Titans: 1-8-1 ATS this season.
• Lions: 8-2 1H and full game ATS this season.
• Lions: 16-4 ATS in L20 road games.
• Cowboys: 2-12 ATS in L14 games as underdogs.
• Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
• Panthers: 8-1-1 1H O/U this season.
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-10 O/U this season.
• Ravens: 9-2 O/U this season
• Chargers: 8-1-1 1H ATS this season.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Bears: 0-7 O/U in L7 road games.
• Chargers: 3-12 O/U in L15 games as favorites
• Patriots: 2-12-2 ATS in L16 home games.
• Cowboys: 0-7 ATS in L7 home games.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

After a few weeks of lower scoring, NFL offenses found new life in Week 11, averaging 46.8 points per game and pushing the season-long average up to 45.1 PPG. Overs went 8-6 for the week, and the median scoring settled at 46.5 PPG. While this spike might suggest a return to high-scoring contests, there are compelling reasons to believe the NFL is still trending toward unders as the season enters its late stages.

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A Balanced Totals Market

The season’s overall totals record now stands at 84-80-3 to the over, highlighting how closely contested the over/under market has been. Week 12’s average total is set at 44.3, slightly below the scoring average for the week.

Despite the high-scoring performance in Week 11, several key factors support a broader trend toward lower-scoring games as the season progresses:

• Divisional Rematches: Late-season divisional matchups are notorious for lower scores. Teams facing each other for the second time in a season have already developed familiarity with their opponent’s schemes, which often results in more conservative play-calling and fewer explosive plays. These games tend to favor grinding, defensive battles over shootouts.

• Playoff Stakes: As playoff implications become more significant, teams in contention tend to tighten up their gameplay. Risk-averse strategies often emerge, emphasizing field position and ball security over aggressive downfield throws. This cautious approach can lead to slower-paced games and fewer points on the board. On the flip side, teams that are eliminated from playoff contention might use the remaining games to experiment with younger players or new schemes, which can lead to disjointed offensive performances and fewer scoring opportunities.
  
• Weather Impacts: Late November and December introduce unpredictable weather conditions, especially in outdoor stadiums. Cold temperatures, high winds, and precipitation can significantly impact passing and kicking efficiency, favoring lower-scoring games. Key Locations to Watch: Green Bay, Chicago, Buffalo, and Cleveland are prime examples of cities where weather conditions can swing game outcomes toward the under.

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Adapting Your Betting Strategy

For bettors looking to capitalize on this trend, here are a few considerations to keep in mind:

• Look for Inflated Totals
  Week 11’s scoring surge may lead to higher totals in Week 12 and beyond. Target games where matchups or situational factors suggest a lower-scoring game despite an inflated total.
  
• Focus on Pace of Play and Red Zone Efficiency
  Teams with slow pace of play or struggles in the red zone are strong under candidates. They may move the ball but fail to convert drives into touchdowns, which keeps scoring in check.
  
• Monitor Weather Early
  Weather-related impacts are often baked into lines closer to kickoff, but savvy bettors who track forecasts early can find value before the market adjusts.

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Final Thoughts

While Week 11 showcased a temporary resurgence in scoring, the broader landscape of late-season NFL football still favors unders. Defenses are adjusting, playoff stakes are influencing game strategies, and weather conditions will become increasingly impactful. As the market reacts to recent trends, sharp bettors can find value by identifying matchups and conditions that support lower-scoring outcomes.

Stay disciplined, adapt to shifting trends, and keep these factors in mind as you hunt for edges in the market. The late season is where careful analysis can pay off the most.

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III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 147-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 5 out of 6 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Chiefs -10.5 and Commanders -10.5, .

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IV. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-1-1 ATS this season, and active to fade the Panthers (play on the Chiefs -10.5) in Week 12.

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V. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 51-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 7-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

No active plays this week, but this is one of our favorite systems to follow.

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VI. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

There are no active games this week, so we will keep our eye out for next week.

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VII. Thanksgiving Games

As Thanksgiving approaches, it’s time to examine how the holiday games influence betting outcomes. Historical trends since 2012 reveal actionable insights for this week and beyond, particularly for totals and spreads.

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Unders Leading Up to Thanksgiving

Teams with Thanksgiving games on the horizon tend to see lower-scoring contests the week before. Since 2012, these teams are a strong 40-23-1 to the under. This trend applies to the following matchups:

• Packers vs. 49ers
• Giants vs. Buccaneers
• Cowboys vs. Commanders
• Bears vs. Vikings
• Dolphins vs. Patriots
• Lions vs. Colts

Breaking it down further, teams hosting Thanksgiving games show an even stronger trend, going 25-10 to the under in the week prior. This narrows the focus to:

• Packers vs. 49ers
• Cowboys vs. Commanders
• Lions vs. Colts

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Spread Trends for Thanksgiving Teams

Road teams looking ahead to Thanksgiving games have excelled against the spread, posting a 15-6 record since 2012. This trend points to plays on:

• Cowboys +10.5
• Lions -7.5

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Thanksgiving Day Fade Opportunities

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving Day itself, historical data since 2011 shows home teams struggle to cover, going 13-25 ATS. This trend suggests fading the following teams on Thanksgiving:

• Packers
• Cowboys
• Lions

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Takeaways for Bettors

Thanksgiving creates unique situational betting opportunities. Unders have been particularly profitable in the lead-up to the holiday, while spreads favor road teams looking ahead to Thanksgiving games. On the day itself, home teams historically underperform, making them prime candidates for fades.

Keep these trends in mind as you prepare for the Thanksgiving slate and seek edges in the market.

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NFL Week 12 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers

The Kansas City Chiefs face the Carolina Panthers in Week 11, and the situational and historical betting trends strongly favor Kansas City in Week 12.

The Panthers are coming off a rare and emotional overtime win against the Giants in Germany, which sets them up for a letdown. Teams returning from a neutral-site game before a bye week have struggled historically, going 3-18-1 ATS since November 2018.

Betting against teams coming off an overtime victory has been one of the most reliable systems over the past decade. Since 2011, home teams in this situation are 54-31-4 ATS (62.7%). The Panthers are likely to be worn down from last week’s emotional and physical toll, in addition to the international travel.

Patrick Mahomes looks to rebound after a tough loss to the Bills, where he threw two interceptions and struggled to fully integrate DeAndre Hopkins into the offense. Facing the Panthers’ defense ranked 29th in Defensive DVOA, Mahomes has an opportunity to dominate with Hopkins. While betting on large spreads can be intimidating, history shows that favorites of 10+ points have been profitable, covering at a 56.2% rate (147-114-10 ATS) since 2015. Chiefs are 8-2-1 ATS in road games after a loss, dating back to 2019.

The Panthers’ recent wins against weak competition (Saints, Giants) don’t inspire confidence when facing a top-tier team like Kansas City. The Chiefs are set for a bounce-back performance after losing their first game of the season.

Pick: Chiefs -10.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

The San Francisco 49ers travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in what shapes up as a defensive, low-scoring affair. With key trends and situational factors aligning, we’ve got our eyes set on the total.

The 49ers will be without quarterback Brock Purdy, a major shift that favors a slower-paced game plan. Expect San Francisco to lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey and the ground attack, controlling the clock and limiting possessions. The 49ers have already demonstrated a trend toward low-scoring first halves on the road, going 4-0 to the 1H under this season.

This game is a rematch of last season’s playoff matchup, which further supports the under. Since 2018, playoff rematches in the regular season have trended significantly under the total, hitting at a remarkable 49-28-3 clip. The familiarity between these teams and the stakes typically lead to tighter, more defensive contests.

Teams playing the week before Thanksgiving historically see lower-scoring games. Since 2012, such teams are 40-23-1 to the under, with the trend even stronger for home teams hosting Thanksgiving games, going 25-10 to the under. This system applies to the Packers, who are likely focused on limiting mistakes and grinding out a win ahead of their Thanksgiving matchup.

With Purdy out, the 49ers relying on their run game, and multiple trends pointing toward lower scoring, the under 44.5 offers strong value despite some lost line movement.

Pick: Under 44.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Despite their improved play this season under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have struggled against the spread as underdogs. Over their last nine games in this role, they are a disappointing 1-7-1 ATS, casting doubt on their ability to rise to the occasion against strong competition.

The Ravens are coming off a surprising loss to the Steelers as favorites, but road favorites off a loss in this spot have historically bounced back strongly. Baltimore’s well-coached, disciplined team typically responds well to adversity, and this matchup provides the perfect opportunity to recalibrate. They are 9-1 ATS after their previous 10 losses.

While the Chargers have been red-hot, much of their recent success can be attributed to a soft schedule. Facing Baltimore represents a significant step up in competition, testing whether their resurgence is sustainable against a quality opponent.

The Ravens are in a great spot to bounce back, while the Chargers face questions about their ability to deliver against a top-tier team. The trends and situational angles favor Baltimore here.

Pick: Ravens -2.5

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Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

• Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
• Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.

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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Why the Bears will cover:

• If one of the injured tackles (Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones) returns, Caleb Williams will have much better protection, giving him more time to find his receivers and reduce the sacks taken.
• D’Andre Swift could take advantage of Green Bay’s below-average run defense, helping Chicago control the game on the ground and alleviate pressure off Williams.

Why the Packers will cover:

• Jordan Love should be close to 100% after the bye week, allowing him to capitalize on the Bears’ struggles to stop the run with Josh Jacobs gaining consistent yardage.
• Green Bay’s pass rush, which generates pressure without heavy blitzing, could overwhelm a still-injured Bears offensive line, especially if Chicago’s tackles are sidelined.

Why the game will go over:

• With both teams likely to establish their ground games, this could open up play-action opportunities, leading to big plays and quick scores.
• Green Bay’s offense will be more efficient with Love healthy and Chicago’s defense showing vulnerabilities against the run, allowing the Packers to sustain drives and put up points.

Why the game will go under:

• If Chicago’s offensive line struggles persist, Caleb Williams could face relentless pressure, resulting in stalled drives and limited offensive production.
• Both teams may lean heavily on the run game, leading to longer, clock-draining drives and fewer possessions overall, keeping the score lower.

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Why the Saints will cover:

• The Saints’ defense still ranks in the top half of the league in EPA against the pass, which could challenge Jameis Winston if he’s forced into passing situations.
• Alvin Kamara remains a versatile threat who can impact the game through short passes and screens, potentially exploiting Cleveland’s aggressive pass rush.

Why the Browns will cover:

• The Browns have had two weeks to prepare and recover, especially Nick Chubb, who faces a Saints defense that struggles against the run.
• Cleveland’s defensive front, led by Myles Garrett, should dominate New Orleans’ weakened offensive line, disrupting Derek Carr’s timing and limiting the Saints’ passing attack.

Why the game will go over:

• The Browns’ run game, led by a healthier Nick Chubb, should have explosive plays against New Orleans’ porous run defense, while Winston’s aggressive style could lead to quick scores on both sides.
• With both teams dealing with injuries in their secondaries, there may be opportunities for big passing plays, especially if Cleveland’s receivers can exploit mismatches.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams will likely lean on the run game, which could lead to longer, clock-draining drives, especially if the Browns establish an early lead.
• New Orleans’ offensive line struggles, combined with Cleveland’s pass rush, may limit scoring opportunities for the Saints, leading to a lower-scoring game.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Why the Rams will cover:

• The Rams’ offense, led by Matthew Stafford, is set to bounce back after a mistake-filled game. Sean McVay has a strong track record of making quick adjustments, especially off a loss.
• The Rams’ defense generates the highest pressure rate in the league, which should force rookie QB Drake Maye into mistakes behind New England’s shaky offensive line.

Why the Patriots will cover:

• If the Rams continue to commit turnovers and penalties, the Patriots could capitalize on those mistakes as they did against the Bears.
• With the Rams dealing with offensive line injuries, New England’s defense, which surprised last week with nine sacks, might find ways to disrupt Stafford.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses can take advantage of the opposing defenses’ weaknesses: the Rams can exploit the Patriots’ run defense, while the Patriots might benefit from short fields if the Rams make more mistakes.
• Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams have favorable matchups that could lead to big gains and quick scores, especially if the Rams’ offense is firing on all cylinders.

Why the game will go under:

• The Patriots may struggle to move the ball against the Rams’ strong pass rush, especially with rookie QB Maye likely facing constant pressure.
• The Rams’ focus on establishing the run with Kyren Williams could lead to longer, clock-draining drives, especially if they get an early lead and look to control the game tempo.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Ravens will cover:

• Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry present a dynamic duo that can challenge even the stoutest defenses. While Pittsburgh has done well containing Jackson historically, the addition of Henry provides a new dimension that the Steelers may struggle to stop.
• The Ravens’ offense is ranked No. 1 in the NFL, with Jackson playing at an MVP-caliber level this season. Despite past struggles against Pittsburgh, their explosive playmakers could break through if they can limit turnovers.

Why the Steelers will cover:

• The Steelers have a game plan that has consistently worked against Lamar Jackson. With fast edge defenders, they’ve held Jackson to under 24 points in each of their past five meetings.
• Russell Wilson’s resurgence has added a new dynamic to the Steelers’ offense. Baltimore’s weak secondary (ranked 30th in adjusted defensive EPA) is vulnerable to deep throws, and Wilson’s “moon balls” could lead to big plays downfield.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses are capable of explosive plays. The Ravens have the league’s top-ranked offense, while the Steelers, with Wilson’s improved passing, can exploit Baltimore’s weak secondary.
• The Steelers have given up points to dynamic offenses, and with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson in the backfield, the Ravens could score quickly if they catch the Steelers off guard.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams have strong defensive fronts that can control the game, leading to fewer explosive plays and long, drawn-out drives.
• The Steelers’ plan to contain Lamar Jackson has historically worked, with most matchups between these teams resulting in low-scoring affairs. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s offense might struggle if Baltimore can generate consistent pressure on Wilson.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

Why the Dolphins will cover:

• Tua Tagovailoa is set up for a bounce-back game against a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in defensive EPA. After struggling against tougher defenses like the Bills and Rams, Miami’s offense should have more room to operate.
• De’Von Achane is poised to exploit the Raiders’ weakness against pass-catching running backs, adding an explosive element that can turn short gains into big plays.

Why the Raiders will cover:

• Miami’s defense, while showing improvement last week, is still ranked 22nd in adjusted defensive EPA. If the Dolphins’ cornerbacks remain sidelined, Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew may have a chance to exploit the weakened secondary.
• The Dolphins have struggled to put away games lately, and the Raiders could find themselves in a position to secure a back-door cover, especially if they get the ball in the fourth quarter against a tired Miami defense.

Why the game will go over:

• Miami’s offense has been stifled by top-tier defenses recently but should find plenty of success against a porous Raiders secondary. Expect Tagovailoa, Hill, and Achane to put up big numbers against a defense that struggles to stop playmakers.
• Las Vegas may find success in the passing game late, particularly if Miami’s cornerbacks are limited or out. The Raiders could add points in garbage time to push the total over.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams could struggle with consistency on offense due to quarterback play. Tagovailoa hasn’t looked sharp since his concussion, while the Raiders’ quarterback carousel has been far from effective.
• Miami’s defensive resurgence, fueled by Zach Sieler, could limit the Raiders’ ability to score, while the Dolphins may opt to control the clock with their running game if they get a lead, resulting in a lower-scoring affair.

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Lions will cover:

• Jared Goff should rebound against a Jacksonville defense ranked 28th in EPA. The Jaguars’ lack of a pass rush (third-worst in pressure rate) will allow Goff plenty of time in the pocket to connect with his weapons.
• With the Jaguars struggling to defend pass-catching running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs could have a big game exploiting this weakness, especially in the absence of Sam LaPorta.

Why the Jaguars will cover:

• Despite their offensive struggles, the Jaguars have been resilient in keeping games close, evidenced by their miraculous cover last week despite being outplayed statistically.
• The Lions may experience a slight letdown after an emotional comeback win against Houston, possibly leaving an opening for Jacksonville to sneak in a back-door cover.

Why the game will go over:

• Detroit’s offense, with Goff looking to bounce back from a rough outing, could exploit Jacksonville’s weak pass defense. Expect the Lions to put up points quickly, especially with Gibbs and St. Brown leading the way.
• The Jaguars, while limited offensively, may be able to capitalize on garbage-time opportunities, especially if Detroit’s defense softens up with a big lead.

Why the game will go under:

• Jacksonville’s offense, led by a struggling Mac Jones, may not be able to put up significant points against a Lions defense that shut out the Texans in the second half last week.
• Detroit could control the game on the ground with Gibbs, allowing them to run down the clock, especially if they get an early lead.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Why the Vikings will cover:

• The Titans’ secondary is banged up, likely missing both starting cornerbacks. This will allow Sam Darnold to connect with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who have great matchups.
• Tennessee struggles to defend receiving backs, which means Aaron Jones could have a big day catching passes out of the backfield, giving Darnold safer, high-percentage throws.

Why the Titans will cover:

• Minnesota’s offense has been turnover-prone, as evidenced by Darnold’s three red-zone interceptions last week. If Darnold continues to struggle with ball security, the Titans could capitalize on short fields.
• The Vikings’ aggressive blitzing defense could leave them vulnerable to big plays if Levis manages to find his rhythm against the pressure.

Why the game will go over:

• With both teams having significant defensive weaknesses, the Vikings’ potent passing attack could exploit Tennessee’s depleted secondary, while the Titans may be able to hit on a few explosive plays if Minnesota’s blitzing scheme backfires.
• Darnold will be eager to redeem himself after last week’s poor showing, which could lead to more aggressive play-calling and higher scoring drives.

Why the game will go under:

• Minnesota’s defense will pressure Will Levis relentlessly, forcing turnovers and stalling Tennessee’s drives, keeping the overall score low.
• Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, especially in the red zone, which could lead to more field goals than touchdowns.

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Why the Jets will cover:

• Aaron Rodgers is likely to have more time in the pocket against the Colts, who rarely blitz. This will allow him to find his receivers downfield, especially after struggling against the Cardinals’ unexpected blitz packages.
• The Jets’ running game could excel against the Colts’ weak rush defense, with Breece Hall primed for a big day to relieve pressure off Rodgers.

Why the Colts will cover:

• Jonathan Taylor has a favorable matchup against the Jets’ weak run defense, allowing the Colts to control the game on the ground and limit Joe Flacco’s exposure to mistakes.
• Anthony Richardson’s mobility can exploit the Jets’ defense, which struggles against mobile quarterbacks, potentially leading to big gains on the ground.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against the run, which could lead to big plays and sustained drives, increasing the score.
• With both Rodgers and Richardson eager to rebound from poor performances, expect aggressive play-calling to push the pace.

Why the game will go under:

• The Jets’ offensive struggles could continue, especially if Rodgers remains reliant on checkdowns under pressure, limiting their scoring potential.
• The Colts’ passing attack is shaky with Flacco or Richardson, and if the Jets’ secondary performs up to their capabilities, it could be a low-scoring defensive battle focused on running the ball.

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San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Why the 49ers will cover:

• Christian McCaffrey is set to handle a larger workload in his second game back and faces a porous Seahawks run defense.
• Brock Purdy has already had success against Seattle’s defense, and Deebo Samuel always plays exceptionally well against the Seahawks.

Why the Seahawks will cover:

• Seattle is coming off a bye, which gives them extra preparation time, especially for divisional rematches like this.
• The 49ers’ red zone inefficiencies, as seen last week, could prevent them from pulling away if they settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Why the game will go over:

• San Francisco’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively with McCaffrey, Samuel, and Kittle, creating multiple scoring opportunities.
• Seattle will likely find success with quick passes to their secondary options like Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker as a receiving back, exploiting San Francisco’s weaker coverage areas.

Why the game will go under:

• The 49ers’ red zone struggles could limit their scoring to field goals instead of touchdowns, keeping the score lower than expected.
• Seattle’s offense might struggle against San Francisco’s stout defense, particularly if Kenneth Walker is limited on the ground and D.K. Metcalf is contained.

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons

Why the Broncos will cover:

• Bo Nix will have ample time in the pocket against Atlanta’s second-worst pressure rate, allowing him to connect with Courtland Sutton for big plays.
• The Falcons’ defense has struggled to contain No. 1 receivers and tight ends, which could open up the passing game for Denver, especially with Nix coming off a confidence-boosting game-winning drive (even if the field goal was blocked).

Why the Falcons will cover:

• Denver’s defense is overrated in terms of defensive EPA, ranking only 14th, which the Falcons can exploit, especially with Kyle Pitts working the middle of the field.
• Bijan Robinson should find success against a Denver defense that was recently gashed by Derrick Henry, giving Atlanta the ability to control the game on the ground.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have favorable matchups: Denver’s passing game can take advantage of Atlanta’s weak pass rush, while the Falcons can exploit the Broncos’ struggles in the middle of the field with Kyle Pitts.
• The Broncos’ recent switch at running back could create more explosive plays, while the Falcons’ offense, led by Robinson and Pitts, can put up points against Denver’s vulnerable defense.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams have been inconsistent on offense, with Denver’s running game change potentially slowing their offensive rhythm and the Falcons being overly reliant on Pitts and Robinson.
• Denver’s solid coverage with Patrick Surtain II on Drake London and Atlanta’s ability to limit the run could lead to longer drives and fewer explosive plays, keeping the score lower.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Why the Chiefs will cover:

• Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have been in sync lately, with Kelce benefiting from increased targets after Rashee Rice’s injury. Kelce can exploit a Bills defense that has recently struggled against tight ends.
• Buffalo’s injury issues on offense and defense could limit their effectiveness, and the Chiefs’ stout defense could take advantage of a weakened Bills receiving corps and ground game.

Why the Bills will cover:

• The Bills’ defense ranks fourth in EPA and is well-equipped to disrupt Kansas City’s offense, especially with the return of key players, which will make it tough for Mahomes to replicate last week’s success.
• Josh Allen’s ability to scramble and target Dalton Kincaid against the Chiefs’ weakness to tight ends provides a solid path to offensive production, helping the Bills control the clock and potentially outlast Kansas City.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses feature elite playmakers in Mahomes and Allen, who are capable of explosive plays. The Chiefs and Bills each have mismatches they can exploit, with Kelce and Kincaid having strong matchups.
• Kansas City’s recent defensive lapses against certain types of receivers and tight ends could open the door for Allen to post big numbers, while Mahomes can take advantage of a Buffalo secondary that has shown vulnerability due to injuries.

Why the game will go under:

• Both defenses excel in limiting key areas of their opponents’ strengths: Buffalo can contain outside receivers, and Kansas City is adept at restricting running games and No. 1 receivers, which could reduce big-play opportunities.
• With Buffalo’s run defense and Kansas City’s preference for controlling time of possession, there’s a chance this game could be a slower-paced, grind-it-out matchup rather than an offensive shootout.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Why the Bengals will cover:

• Joe Burrow thrives in bounce-back situations and tends to perform well following a loss. This urgency is even higher here with Cincinnati sitting at 4-7.
• Despite the Chargers’ defensive prowess, Ja’Marr Chase has a favorable matchup against a secondary that has struggled against No. 1 receivers lately. If Chase Brown can establish a decent run game, it’ll help keep the Chargers’ edge rushers at bay.

Why the Chargers will cover:

• The Chargers’ defense ranks second in defensive EPA, with a strong pass rush that can disrupt Burrow, especially if the Bengals are without left tackle Orlando Brown.
• Cincinnati’s defense is struggling, particularly against the run and deep passes, which aligns perfectly with the Chargers’ offensive strengths. J.K. Dobbins and Justin Herbert should be able to exploit these weaknesses.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have the firepower to put up points, and the Bengals are coming off a pair of high-scoring shootouts against Baltimore. With both teams facing defensive weaknesses (Cincinnati’s poor run defense and the Chargers’ vulnerability to big plays), a high total seems likely.
• The Chargers’ receiving corps is fully healthy, with Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey available, which should allow Herbert to connect on deep shots against Cincinnati’s shaky secondary.

Why the game will go under:

• The Chargers’ defense is capable of putting significant pressure on Burrow, which could limit the Bengals’ offensive efficiency, especially if Orlando Brown is sidelined.
• Both teams may look to control the game on the ground, with J.K. Dobbins for the Chargers and Chase Brown for the Bengals, which could lead to longer drives and fewer possessions, keeping the total lower.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys

Why the Texans will cover:

• With Nico Collins returning, the Texans’ offense should be revitalized, giving C.J. Stroud a reliable target to pair with Tank Dell. This should help Stroud move the chains against a Dallas defense that has struggled against the run.
• Houston’s defense is top-10 in adjusted EPA and excels at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys, with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance under center, will face a difficult time moving the ball, especially with limited receiving threats and poor pass protection.

Why the Cowboys will cover:

• The Texans are weakest against the run, and if Dallas can establish a ground game with Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, they may be able to control the clock and keep Stroud off the field.
• Cooper Rush has shown in the past that he can manage games efficiently, and if he limits mistakes and avoids turnovers, the Cowboys’ defense might be able to keep this game closer than expected.

Why the game will go over:

• With Collins returning, the Texans’ passing attack should see a boost, allowing them to exploit Dallas’ vulnerable pass defense, especially on play-action setups from early down runs with Joe Mixon.
• Houston’s defensive strength is pressuring the quarterback, but if Dallas can find some success with quick passes or screens, they might generate enough scoring drives to contribute to a higher total.

Why the game will go under:

• Dallas is limited offensively without Dak Prescott and may struggle to generate any explosive plays. The Texans’ defense should be able to shut down an already shaky Cowboys offense led by a backup quarterback.
• The Texans, despite Collins’ return, may opt for a more conservative game plan with a focus on the run game to control the clock and limit mistakes after their recent losses.