Category: Betting

Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West

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Head Coach: Andy Reid (12th season)

Key Additions:

• Xavier Worthy (WR) – rookie
• Marquise Brown (WR)

Key Departures:

• Marquez Valdez-Scantling (WR)
• Willie Gay (LB)
• L’Jarius Sneed (CB)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 11-6
• ATS Record: 9-7-1 ATS
• O/U Record: 5-11-1 O/U (1-6-1 O/U at home)
  
  
• Interesting Trend: 1-6 1H ATS as road favorites.
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 11th
• Rush EPA (offense): 18th
• Pass EPA (offense): 12th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 6th
• Rush EPA (defense): 28th
• Pass EPA (defense): 3rd
  
  
• Plays per game: 15th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 19th
  
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Baltimore Ravens (Home)
• Week 2: Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
• Week 3: Atlanta Falcons (Away)
• Week 4: Los Angeles Chargers (Away)
• Week 5: New Orleans Saints (Home)
• Week 6: BYE
• Week 7: San Francisco 49ers (Away)
• Week 8: Las Vegas Raiders (Away)
• Week 9: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
• Week 10: Denver Broncos (Home)
• Week 11: Buffalo Bills (Away)
• Week 12: Carolina Panthers (Away)
• Week 13: Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
• Week 14: Los Angeles Chargers (Home)
• Week 15: Cleveland Browns (Away)
• Week 16: Houston Texans (Home)
• Week 17: Pittsburgh Steelers (Away)
• Week 18: Denver Broncos (Away)

Commentary: The Kansas City Chiefs enter the new season as defending champions, but their 2023 performance exposed some areas of concern. While the Chiefs’ defense was unexpectedly strong, their offensive inconsistencies, particularly in scoring, raised questions. These struggles were most apparent in their home games, where they consistently hit the under.

With the addition of promising rookie Xavier Worthy and veteran Marquise Brown, there’s potential for a rejuvenated passing game. However, with Travis Kelce showing signs of decline, someone will need to step up to fill the void. The Chiefs may approach the regular season with a strategic focus on pacing themselves, likely saving their best performances for a late-season surge and another deep playoff run.

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Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South

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Head Coach: Doug Pederson (3rd season)

Key Additions:

• Gabe Davis (WR)
• Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)
• Arik Armstead (DT)
• Ronald Darby (CB)

Key Departures:

• Calvin Ridley (WR)
• Zay Jones (WR)
• Darious Williams (WR)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 9-8
• ATS Record: 9-8 ATS
• O/U Record: 8-9 O/U (5-12 1H O/U)
  
  
• 0-3 SU and ATS as a home underdog.
• 0-3 1H O/U and full game O/U as a home underdog.
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 19th
• Rush EPA (offense): 30th
• Pass EPA (offense): 14th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 13th
• Rush EPA (defense): 23rd
• Pass EPA (defense): 10th
  
  
• Plays per game: 6th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 12th
  
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Miami Dolphins (Away)
• Week 2: Cleveland Browns (Home)
• Week 3: Buffalo Bills (Away)
• Week 4: Houston Texans (Away)
• Week 5: Indianapolis Colts (Home)
• Week 6: Chicago Bears (Neutral)
• Week 7: New England Patriots (Neutral)
• Week 8: Green Bay Packers (Home)
• Week 9: Philadelphia Eagles (Away)
• Week 10: Minnesota Vikings (Home)
• Week 11: Detroit Lions (Away)
• Week 12: BYE
• Week 13: Houston Texans (Home)
• Week 14: Tennessee Titans (Away)
• Week 15: New York Jets (Home)
• Week 16: Las Vegas Raiders (Away)
• Week 17: Tennessee Titans (Home)
• Week 18: Indianapolis Colts (Away)

Commentary: The Jacksonville Jaguars are on an upward trajectory under Head Coach Doug Pederson, entering his third season with the team. After a strong start last year, the Jaguars’ campaign was hindered by key injuries, most notably to star quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

With the addition of Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. at wide receiver, the Jaguars are looking to bolster their passing attack. Arik Armstead’s arrival strengthens the defensive line, and Ronald Darby adds depth to the secondary.

This season, the Jaguars aim to build on their momentum, with hopes that an improved roster and better luck with injuries can propel them further. The schedule presents challenges, including tough road games against the Bills and Eagles. If Lawrence stays healthy and the new additions gel quickly, Jacksonville could be poised for a playoff push.

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Indianapolis Colts | AFC South

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Head Coach: Shane Steichen (2nd season)

Key Additions:

• Adonai Mitchell (WR) – rookie
• Joe Flacco (QB)

Key Departures:

• Shaquille Leonard (LB)
• Gardner Minshew (QB)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 9-8
• ATS Record: 9-8 ATS
• O/U Record: 11-6 O/U
  
  
• 5-1 ATS as a favorite
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 17th
• Rush EPA (offense): 16th
• Pass EPA (offense): 18th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 19th
• Rush EPA (defense): 20th
• Pass EPA (defense): 16th
  
  
• Plays per game: 11th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 1st

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Houston Texans (Home)
• Week 2: Green Bay Packers (Away)
• Week 3: Chicago Bears (Home)
• Week 4: Pittsburgh Steelers (Home)
• Week 5: Jacksonville Jaguars (Away)
• Week 6: Tennessee Titans (Away)
• Week 7: Miami Dolphins (Home)
• Week 8: Houston Texans (Away)
• Week 9: Minnesota Vikings (Away)
• Week 10: Buffalo Bills (Home)
• Week 11: New York Jets (Away)
• Week 12: Detroit Lions (Home)
• Week 13: New England Patriots (Away)
• Week 14: BYE
• Week 15: Denver Broncos (Away)
• Week 16: Tennessee Titans (Home)
• Week 17: New York Giants (Away)
• Week 18: Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)

Commentary: Anthony Richardson returns for his second season as the starting quarterback after a promising but shortened rookie campaign due to injury. His athleticism and playmaking ability make the Colts an exciting team to watch, particularly with the addition of rookie wideout Adonai Mitchell, who is expected to make an immediate impact. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco was brought in to provide depth and mentorship, which could prove invaluable for Richardson’s development.

The departure of Shaquille Leonard will leave a noticeable void in the Colts’ defense, which ranked middle of the pack in most categories last season. The defense will need to step up, particularly against the run, where they ranked 20th in EPA/play in 2023.

The Colts benefited from a relatively easy schedule last year, which contributed to their slightly overachieving 9-8 record. With another favorable schedule this season, there’s potential for similar or better success, especially if Richardson can stay healthy and continue his progression. Overs could continue to be a good look this season with their fast-paced, high-octane offense.

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Houston Texas | AFC South

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Head Coach: Demeco Ryans (2nd season)

Key Additions:

• Stefon Diggs (WR)
• Joe Mixon (RB)
• Danielle Hunter (DE)
• Kammari Lassiter (CB) – rookie

Key Departures:

• Devin Singletary (RB)
• George Fant (RT)
• Denzel Perryman (LB)
• Jonathan Greenard (DE)
• Sheldon Rankins (DT)
• Maliek Collins (DT)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 10-7
• ATS Record: 9-8 ATS
• O/U Record: 6-11 O/U
  
  
• 6-2 ATS as an underdog
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 15th
• Rush EPA (offense): 26th
• Pass EPA (offense): 13th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 14th
• Rush EPA (defense): 6th
• Pass EPA (defense): 20th
  
  
• Plays per game: 14th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 4th

2024 Season Schedule:

Week 1: Indianapolis Colts (Away)
Week 2: Chicago Bears (Home)
Week 3: Minnesota Vikings (Away)
Week 4: Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
Week 5: Buffalo Bills (Home)
Week 6: New England Patriots (Away)
Week 7: Green Bay Packers (Away)
Week 8: Indianapolis Colts (Home)
Week 9: New York Jets (Away)
Week 10: Detroit Lions (Home)
Week 11: Dallas Cowboys (Away)
Week 12: Tennessee Titans (Home)
Week 13: Jacksonville Jaguars (Away)
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: Miami Dolphins (Home)
Week 16: Kansas City Chiefs (Away)
Week 17: Baltimore Ravens (Home)
Week 18: Tennessee Titans (Away)

Commentary: The Houston Texans are entering the 2024 season with high expectations after a solid 10-7 campaign last year. Under the leadership of head coach DeMeco Ryans, who had a strong debut season, and the impressive rookie season of quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans have positioned themselves as serious contenders in the AFC.

This offseason, the Texans made significant moves to strengthen their roster, particularly on offense, with the addition of Stefon Diggs, a premier wide receiver who brings explosive playmaking ability to the passing game. The acquisition of Joe Mixon adds a dynamic presence in the backfield, giving Stroud more options and balance on offense. On defense, the Texans have bolstered their pass rush with Danielle Hunter, a proven sack artist, while rookie cornerback Kammari Lassiter adds fresh talent to the secondary.

With an already strong defense, particularly against the run, and a fast-paced offense, the Texans have all the pieces in place to make a deep playoff run. They are not just aiming for another winning season; they are poised to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

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Green Bay Packers | NFC North

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Head Coach: Matt LeFleur (6th season)

Key Additions:

• Josh Jacobs (RB)
• Xavier Mckinney (S)

Key Departures:

• Jonathan Owens (S)
• Aaron Jones (RB)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 9-8
• ATS Record: 9-8 ATS
• O/U Record: 10-7 O/U (ended the regular season on a 6-1 O/U run)
  
  
• 7-1 O/U off a win
• 6-11 1H O/U
• 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS vs. teams that play at a slower pace than league average (total plays)
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 5th
• Rush EPA (offense): 10th
• Pass EPA (offense): 4th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 22nd
• Rush EPA (defense): 23rd
• Pass EPA (defense): 22nd
  
  
• Plays per game: 23rd
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 20th

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Philadelphia Eagles (Neutral)
• Week 2: Indianapolis Colts (Home)
• Week 3: Tennessee Titans (Away)
• Week 4: Minnesota Vikings (Home)
• Week 5: Los Angeles Rams (Away)
• Week 6: Arizona Cardinals (Home)
• Week 7: Houston Texans (Home)
• Week 8: Jacksonville Jaguars (Away)
• Week 9: Detroit Lions (Home)
• Week 10: BYE
• Week 11: Chicago Bears (Away)
• Week 12: San Francisco 49ers (Home)
• Week 13: Miami Dolphins (Home)
• Week 14: Detroit Lions (Away)
• Week 15: Seattle Seahawks (Away)
• Week 16: New Orleans Saints (Home)
• Week 17: Minnesota Vikings (Away)
• Week 18: Chicago Bears (Home)

Commentary: With Jordan Love entering his second season as the starting quarterback, the Green Bay Packers are eager to build on the momentum from a successful playoff run last year. Love has shown promising development, and the offense has been clicking, delivering strong performances throughout the second half of the season. However, the defense remains a concern, with the team needing to shore up weaknesses to sustain success. The Packers are well-positioned to compete in the NFC, but their ability to address defensive shortcomings will be crucial to making a deeper postseason push.

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Detroit Lions | NFC North

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Head Coach: Dan Campbell (4th season)

Key Additions:

• DJ Reader (NT)
• Carlton Davis (CB)
• Marcus Davenport (DE)
• Kevin Zeitler (RG)

Key Departures:

• Josh Reynolds (WR)
• Jonah Jackson (LG)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 12-5
• ATS Record: 12-5 ATS (7-2 ATS on the road)
• O/U Record: 11-6 O/U
  
  
• Interesting Trend: 5-0 ATS off a loss
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 8th
• Rush EPA (offense): 6th
• Pass EPA (offense): 7th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 21st
• Rush EPA (defense): 4th
• Pass EPA (defense): 25th
  
  
• Plays per game: 2nd
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 13th

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Los Angeles Rams (Home)
• Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
• Week 3: Arizona Cardinals (Away)
• Week 4: Seattle Seahawks (Home)
• Week 5: BYE
• Week 6: Dallas Cowboys (Away)
• Week 7: Minnesota Vikings (Away)
• Week 8: Tennessee Titans (Home)
• Week 9: Green Bay Packers (Away)
• Week 10: Houston Texans (Away)
• Week 11: Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
• Week 12: Indianapolis Colts (Away)
• Week 13: Chicago Bears (Home)
• Week 14: Green Bay Packers (Home)
• Week 15: Buffalo Bills (Home)
• Week 16: Chicago Bears (Away)
• Week 17: San Francisco 49ers (Away)
• Week 18: Minnesota Vikings (Home)

Commentary: The Detroit Lions have emerged as one of the most exciting teams in the league under Dan Campbell’s leadership. Last season’s impressive 12-5 record and their ability to cover spreads effectively on the road showcase their resilience and strong coaching. The Lions have shown they can exceed expectations with their dynamic offense, ranking 8th in EPA/play, but their defensive inconsistencies need addressing. Detroit’s performance will hinge on their ability to maintain their high offensive output while improving their defensive metrics. Fans should be optimistic about another competitive season.

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Denver Broncos | AFC West

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Head Coach: Sean Payton (2nd season)

Key Additions:

• Bo Nix (QB)
• Josh Reynolds (WR)

Key Departures:

• Russell Wilson (QB)
• Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 8-9
• ATS Record: 6-10-1 ATS
• O/U Record: 8-9 O/U
  
  
• Interesting Trend: Impressive 8-1 1H ATS at home, showcasing strong first-half performances at Mile High.
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 20th
• Rush EPA (offense): 17th
• Pass EPA (offense): 21st
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 25th
• Rush EPA (defense): 19th
• Pass EPA (defense): 27th
  
  
• Plays per game: 29th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 29th

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Seattle Seahawks (Away)
• Week 2: Pittsburgh Steelers (Home)
• Week 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Away)
• Week 4: New York Jets (Away)
• Week 5: Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
• Week 6: Los Angeles Chargers (Home)
• Week 7: New Orleans Saints (Away)
• Week 8: Carolina Panthers (Home)
• Week 9: Baltimore Ravens (Away)
• Week 10: Kansas City Chiefs (Away)
• Week 11: Atlanta Falcons (Home)
• Week 12: Las Vegas Raiders (Away)
• Week 13: Cleveland Browns (Home)
• Week 14: BYE
• Week 15: Indianapolis Colts (Home)
• Week 16: Los Angeles Chargers (Away)
• Week 17: Cincinnati Bengals (Away)
• Week 18: Kansas City Chiefs (Home)

Commentary: The Broncos are in a period of transition, with significant changes at quarterback and wide receiver. Bo Nix steps in to lead an offense that struggled last season. Sean Payton will need to address these issues swiftly if the team hopes to improve on last year’s performance and reinvigorate a fanbase that has seen better days. The bright spot might be their strong early-game performance at home, but consistency will be key to turning things around.

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Dallas Cowboys | NFC East

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Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (5th season)

Key Additions:

• Ezekiel Elliot (RB)
• Eric Kendricks (LB)

Key Departures:

• Tyron Smith (LT)
• Tony Pollard (RB)
• Stefon Gilmore (CB)
• Michael Gallup (WR)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 12-5
• ATS Record: 10-7 ATS
• O/U Record: 8-7-2 O/U
  
  
  
• 5-1 ATS and 6-0 1H ATS in divisional games
• 6-1 ATS and 1H ATS vs. teams w/ 45% win percentage or lower
• 0-4 ATS as an underdog
• 11-2 1H ATS as a favorite
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 2nd
• Rush EPA (offense): 11th
• Pass EPA (offense): 2nd
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 4th
• Rush EPA (defense): 10th
• Pass EPA (defense): 5th
  
  
• Plays per game: 3rd
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 25th
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Cleveland Browns (Away)
• Week 2: New Orleans Saints (Home)
• Week 3: Baltimore Ravens (Home)
• Week 4: New York Giants (Away)
• Week 5: Pittsburgh Steelers (Away)
• Week 6: Detroit Lions (Home)
• Week 7: BYE
• Week 8: San Francisco 49ers (Away)
• Week 9: Atlanta Falcons (Away)
• Week 10: Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
• Week 11: Houston Texans (Home)
• Week 12: Washington Commanders (Away)
• Week 13: New York Giants (Home)
• Week 14: Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
• Week 15: Carolina Panthers (Away)
• Week 16: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home)
• Week 17: Philadelphia Eagles (Away)
• Week 18: Washington Commanders (Home)

Commentary: The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2024 season with some uncertainty. The departures of key players like Tyron Smith, Tony Pollard, and Stefon Gilmore leave significant gaps. Michael Gallup’s exit further challenges the receiving corps, and Ceedee Lamb’s contract situation may affect team dynamics.

The Cowboys have proven themselves as a dominant regular-season team, boasting one of the most efficient offenses in the league (2nd in EPA/play and pass EPA). They also showed strong defensive performances (4th in EPA/play allowed), although there is concern over potential turnover luck and the impact of key defensive losses.

Trends from last season highlight their strong performance in divisional games and as favorites, but struggles as underdogs and in playoff scenarios remain. The team’s ability to adapt to the loss of key players, manage Lamb’s situation, and sustain their high level of play will be crucial for playoff success. If they can address these challenges, they have the potential to maintain their strong regular-season performance.

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Cleveland Browns | AFC North

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Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (5th season)

Key Additions:

• Jerry Jeudy (WR)
• Devin Bush (LB)
• Jordan Hicks (LB)

Key Departures:

• Anthony Walker Jr. (LB)
• Sione Takitaki (LB)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 11-6
• ATS Record: 10-6-1 ATS (8-1 ATS at home, 6-0 ATS as home favorites)
• O/U Record: 10-6-1 O/U (8-0 O/U on the road)
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 28th
• Rush EPA (offense): 21st
• Pass EPA (offense): 28th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 1st
• Rush EPA (defense): 15th
• Pass EPA (defense): 1st
  
  
• Plays per game: 1st
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 7th

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Dallas Cowboys (Home)
• Week 2: Jacksonville Jaguars (Away)
• Week 3: New York Giants (Home)
• Week 4: Las Vegas Raiders (Away)
• Week 5: Washington Commanders (Away)
• Week 6: Philadelphia Eagles (Away)
• Week 7: Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
• Week 8: Baltimore Ravens (Home)
• Week 9: Los Angeles Chargers (Home)
• Week 10: BYE
• Week 11: New Orleans Saints (Away)
• Week 12: Pittsburgh Steelers (Home)
• Week 13: Denver Broncos (Away)
• Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers (Away)
• Week 15: Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
• Week 16: Cincinnati Bengals (Away)
• Week 17: Miami Dolphins (Home)
• Week 18: Baltimore Ravens (Away)

Commentary: The Cleveland Browns have established themselves as a formidable home team, evidenced by their impressive 8-1 ATS record at home last season and a perfect 6-0 ATS as home favorites. Their performance on the road also showed a propensity for high-scoring games, with an 8-0 O/U record away from home.

The offense, which struggled last year (28th in EPA/play, 21st in rush EPA, 28th in pass EPA), will need significant improvement. The addition of Jerry Jeudy could provide a much-needed boost to the receiving corps, but Deshaun Watson’s performance will be critical. He must elevate his play to fully capitalize on the talent around him and address the offensive inefficiencies.

The defense, ranked 1st in EPA/play allowed and pass EPA, was a major strength last season. The Browns have the potential to build on last season’s success, but the effectiveness of their new additions and the performance of Deshaun Watson will be pivotal to their playoff aspirations.

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