Category: Betting

Washington Commanders | NFC East

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Head Coach: Dan Quinn (1st season)

Key Additions:

• Dan Quinn (head coach)
• Kliff Kingsbury (offensive coordinator)
• Jayden Daniels (QB) – rookie
• Austin Ekeler (RB)
• Zach Ertz (TE)
• Tyler Biadasz (C)
• Bobby Wagner (LB)
• Frankie Luvu (LB)

Key Departures:

• Ron Riviera (head coach)
• Sam Howell (QB)
• Curtis Samuel (WR)
• Logan Thomas (TE)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 4-13
• ATS Record: 6-10-1 ATS (0-7-1 ATS at home)
• O/U Record: 9-7-1 O/U (12-5 1H O/U)
  
  
• 0-4 ATS as a favorite
• 0-6 1H ATS vs. bad teams (45% win percentage or lower)
  
  
  
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 25th
• Rush EPA (offense): 20th
• Pass EPA (offense): 26th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 32nd
• Rush EPA (defense): 21st
• Pass EPA (defense): 32nd
  
  
• Plays per game: 19th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 17th
  
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Away)
• Week 2: New York Giants (Home)
• Week 3: Cincinnati Bengals (Away)
• Week 4: Arizona Cardinals (Away)
• Week 5: Cleveland Browns (Home)
• Week 6: Baltimore Ravens (Away)
• Week 7: Carolina Panthers (Home)
• Week 8: Chicago Bears (Home)
• Week 9: New York Giants (Away)
• Week 10: Pittsburgh Steelers (Home)
• Week 11: Philadelphia Eagles (Away)
• Week 12: Dallas Cowboys (Home)
• Week 13: Tennessee Titans (Home)
• Week 14: BYE
• Week 15: New Orleans Saints (Away)
• Week 16: Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
• Week 17: Atlanta Falcons (Home)
• Week 18: Dallas Cowboys (Away)

Commentary: The 2024 season marks a dramatic overhaul for the team, starting with the arrival of Dan Quinn as the new head coach, taking over from Ron Rivera. Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, will be aiming to turn around a squad that was among the worst in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season. Adding Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator introduces a fresh offensive scheme, which could be a game-changer for a unit that struggled significantly in 2023.

With the drafting of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the addition of dynamic playmakers like Austin Ekeler and veteran tight end Zach Ertz, the offense is set for a significant transformation. Daniels’ development will be critical; while his rookie season promises potential, he will need to adapt quickly to the NFL’s demands. On the defensive side, bringing in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu aims to solidify a unit that was last in the league in EPA/play allowed and pass EPA allowed.

The transition period could be rocky, but the potential for a turnaround is certainly present.

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Tennessee Titans | AFC South

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Head Coach: Brian Callahan (1st season)

Key Additions:

• Brian Callahan (head coach)
• Calvin Ridley (WR)
• Tyler Boyd (WR)
• Tony Pollard (RB)
• L’jarius Sneed (CB)
• Chidobie Awuze (CB)

Key Departures:

• Mike Vrabel (head coach)
• Derrick Henry (RB)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 6-11
• ATS Record: 7-9-1 ATS
• O/U Record: 6-11 O/U
  
  
• 0-5 ATS after a win
• 7-1 1H ATS at home
  
  
  
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 16th
• Rush EPA (offense): 13th
• Pass EPA (offense): 20th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 28th
• Rush EPA (defense): 12th
• Pass EPA (defense): 30th
  
  
• Plays per game: 31st
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 31st
  
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Chicago Bears (Away)
• Week 2: New York Jets (Home)
• Week 3: Green Bay Packers (Home)
• Week 4: Miami Dolphins (Away)
• Week 5: BYE
• Week 6: Indianapolis Colts (Home)
• Week 7: Buffalo Bills (Away)
• Week 8: Detroit Lions (Away)
• Week 9: New England Patriots (Home)
• Week 10: Los Angeles Chargers (Away)
• Week 11: Minnesota Vikings (Home)
• Week 12: Houston Texans (Away)
• Week 13: Washington Commanders (Away)
• Week 14: Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
• Week 15: Cincinnati Bengals (Home)
• Week 16: Indianapolis Colts (Away)
• Week 17: Jacksonville Jaguars (Away)
• Week 18: Houston Texans (Home)

Commentary: The Tennessee Titans enter the 2024 season with a radically different look and feel, signaling the dawn of a new era. After a disappointing 6-11 finish last season, the team underwent a significant transformation, starting with the hiring of Brian Callahan as head coach. The departure of long-time leader Mike Vrabel marks the end of an era defined by tough, physical football centered around the power running game, led by the now-departed Derrick Henry.

The Titans’ offense, once synonymous with Henry’s bruising style, will now have a more diversified attack with the additions of Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard. Ridley and Boyd bring experience and reliability to a receiving corps that has been inconsistent in recent years, while Pollard offers a dynamic, dual-threat option in the backfield. These changes indicate a shift toward a more pass-heavy offense, though the team’s success will largely hinge on quarterback Will Levis. Levis has shown flashes of brilliance but struggled with consistency during his rookie season.

Defensively, the Titans were among the league’s worst in 2023, particularly against the pass, ranking 30th in pass EPA allowed. The acquisitions of L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie are clear attempts to shore up a beleaguered secondary. The Titans’ season will likely be defined by how quickly the team can adapt to its new identity and whether they can avoid the inconsistencies that plagued them in 2023.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South

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Head Coach: Todd Bowles (3rd season)

Key Additions:

• Jordan Whitehead (S)
• Ben Bredeson (LG)
• Graham Barton (C) – rookie

Key Departures:

• Shaq Barrett (LB)
• Devin White (LB)
• Carlton Davis (CB)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 9-8
• ATS Record: 11-6 ATS (8-1 ATS on the road)
• O/U Record: 6-11 O/U
  
  
• 0-6 O/U vs. good teams (55% win percentage or greater)
• 0-3 O/U as home underdogs
  
  
  
  
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 12th
• Rush EPA (offense): 27th
• Pass EPA (offense): 8th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 18th
• Rush EPA (defense): 5th
• Pass EPA (defense): 22nd
  
  
• Plays per game: 25th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 14th
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Washington Commanders (Home)
• Week 2: Detroit Lions (Away)
• Week 3: Denver Broncos (Home)
• Week 4: Philadelphia Eagles (Home)
• Week 5: Atlanta Falcons (Away)
• Week 6: New Orleans Saints (Away)
• Week 7: Baltimore Ravens (Home)
• Week 8: Atlanta Falcons (Home)
• Week 9: Kansas City Chiefs (Away)
• Week 10: San Francisco 49ers (Home)
• Week 11: BYE
• Week 12: New York Giants (Away)
• Week 13: Carolina Panthers (Away)
• Week 14: Las Vegas Raiders (Home)
• Week 15: Los Angeles Chargers (Away)
• Week 16: Dallas Cowboys (Away)
• Week 17: Carolina Panthers (Home)
• Week 18: New Orleans Saints (Home)

Commentary: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into the 2024 season with significant changes, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The loss of key defenders like Shaq Barrett, Devin White, and Carlton Davis leaves a void that will be hard to fill, especially for a unit that was already shaky last year. Despite ranking 5th in rush defense EPA, their pass defense lagged behind at 22nd, and the departure of key players could exacerbate these issues.

Offensively, the Buccaneers performed admirably, finishing 12th in EPA/play and 8th in pass EPA, largely due to their aerial attack. Baker Mayfield, who received payday, will be under the spotlight this season. With financial security in hand, the question arises whether his motivation will remain high or if complacency could set in. The Bucs were highly efficient against the spread last year, particularly on the road (8-1 ATS).

Given their defensive losses and potential for regression, the road ahead looks challenging, and the Bucs will need to overcome hurdles to avoid slipping back into mediocrity.

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Seattle Seahawks | NFC West

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Head Coach: Mike Macdonald (1st season)

Key Additions:

• Mike Macdonald (head coach)
• Byron Murphy (DT) – rookie
• Tyrel Dodson (LB)
• Jerome Baker (LB)

Key Departures:

• Pete Carroll (head coach)
• Evan Brown (C)
• Jordyn Brooks (LB)
• Jamal Adams (S)
• Will Dissly (TE)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 9-8
• ATS Record: 8-7-2 ATS
• O/U Record: 7-10 O/U
  
  
  
  
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 10th
• Rush EPA (offense): 14th
• Pass EPA (offense): 10th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 30th
• Rush EPA (defense): 31st
• Pass EPA (defense): 29th
  
  
• Plays per game: 27th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 30th
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Denver Broncos (Home)
• Week 2: New England Patriots (Away)
• Week 3: Miami Dolphins (Home)
• Week 4: Detroit Lions (Away)
• Week 5: New York Giants (Home)
• Week 6: San Francisco 49ers (Home)
• Week 7: Atlanta Falcons (Away)
• Week 8: Buffalo Bills (Home)
• Week 9: Los Angeles Rams (Home)
• Week 10: BYE
• Week 11: San Francisco 49ers (Away)
• Week 12: Arizona Cardinals (Home)
• Week 13: New York Jets (Away)
• Week 14: Arizona Cardinals (Away)
• Week 15: Green Bay Packers (Home)
• Week 16: Minnesota Vikings (Home)
• Week 17: Chicago Bears (Away)
• Week 18: Los Angeles Rams (Away)

Commentary: The Seattle Seahawks are entering a new era with the departure of long-time head coach Pete Carroll and the introduction of Mike Macdonald, who steps into his first season at the helm and with big shoes to fill.

Last season, the Seahawks boasted an impressive offense, finishing 10th in both overall EPA/play and passing EPA, with a solid rushing attack ranking 14th. However, the defense was a glaring weakness, ranking near the bottom in nearly every defensive metric. The unit’s performance was a significant factor in their 9-8 record, barely squeezing into the playoff picture. The additions of Tyrel Dodson and Jerome Baker are intended to bolster the linebacker corps.

Despite their strong offensive showing, the Seahawks may have overperformed last season, and with the transition to a new coaching regime, there’s potential for regression.

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San Francisco 49ers | NFC West

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Head Coach: Kyle Shanahan (8th season)

Key Additions:

• Josh Dobbs (QB)
• Maliek Collins (DT)
• De’vondre Campbell (LB)
• Leonard Floyd (DE)
• Nick Sorenson (Defensive Coordinator)

Key Departures:

• Arik Armstead (DT)
• Chase Young (DE)
• Steve Wilks (Defensive Coordinator)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 12-5
• ATS Record: 9-7-1 ATS
• O/U Record: 9-7-1 O/U
  
  
• 6-1 O/U vs. good teams (55% win percentage or greater)
• 5-1 O/U in divisional games
  
  
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 1st
• Rush EPA (offense): 1st
• Pass EPA (offense): 1st
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 10th
• Rush EPA (defense): 26th
• Pass EPA (defense): 6th
  
  
• Plays per game: 27th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 30th
  

2024 Season Schedule:

• Week 1: New York Jets (Home)
• Week 2: Minnesota Vikings (Away)
• Week 3: Los Angeles Rams (Away)
• Week 4: New England Patriots (Home)
• Week 5: Arizona Cardinals (Home)
• Week 6: Seattle Seahawks (Away)
• Week 7: Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
• Week 8: Dallas Cowboys (Home)
• Week 9: BYE
• Week 10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Away)
• Week 11: Seattle Seahawks (Home)
• Week 12: Green Bay Packers (Away)
• Week 13: Buffalo Bills (Away)
• Week 14: Chicago Bears (Home)
• Week 15: Los Angeles Rams (Home)
• Week 16: Miami Dolphins (Away)
• Week 17: Detroit Lions (Home)
• Week 18: Arizona Cardinals (Away)

Commentary: The San Francisco 49ers have firmly established themselves as regular-season powerhouses under Kyle Shanahan, consistently dominating the competition, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. With their offense ranking 1st in EPA/play, rush, and pass EPA, the 49ers have an explosive and multifaceted attack, largely fueled by the brilliance of Christian McCaffrey, who remains a versatile and dynamic weapon. The ongoing contract dispute with wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk adds another layer of uncertainty, potentially disrupting the cohesion of their high-powered offense.

Ultimately, while the 49ers have all the tools to dominate the regular season once again, their postseason fate will hinge on the defense’s ability to adapt to new leadership on the defensive side of the ball and how well the offense can navigate potential disruptions. The question remains: can they finally translate regular-season dominance into Super Bowl glory?

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Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North

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Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (18th season)

Key Additions:

• Russell Wilson (QB)
• Justin Fields (QB)
• Van Jefferson (WR)
• Patrick Queen (LB)
• Donte Jackson (CB)

Key Departures:

• Diontae Johnson (WR)
• Kenny Pickett (QB)
• Patrick Peterson (CB)

Last Season’s Results and Interesting Trends (2023):

• Overall Record: 10-7
• ATS Record: 10-7 ATS (5-12 1H ATS)
• O/U Record: 6-11 O/U
  
  
• 5-1 ATS in divisional games
• 0-3 O/U as road favorites
  
  
  

Last Season’s Ranks (2023):

• EPA/play (offense): 23rd
• Rush EPA (offense): 12th
• Pass EPA (offense): 25th
  
  
• EPA/play allowed (defense): 7th
• Rush EPA (defense): 11th
• Pass EPA (defense): 8th
  
  
• Plays per game: 26th
• Seconds per snap (lowest to highest): 28th

Season Schedule:

• Week 1: Atlanta Falcons (Away)
• Week 2: Denver Broncos (Away)
• Week 3: Los Angeles Chargers (Home)
• Week 4: Indianapolis Colts (Away)
• Week 5: Dallas Cowboys (Home)
• Week 6: Las Vegas Raiders (Away)
• Week 7: New York Jets (Home)
• Week 8: New York Giants (Home)
• Week 9: BYE
• Week 10: Washington Commanders (Away)
• Week 11: Baltimore Ravens (Home)
• Week 12: Cleveland Browns (Away)
• Week 13: Cincinnati Bengals (Away)
• Week 14: Cleveland Browns (Home)
• Week 15: Philadelphia Eagles (Away)
• Week 16: Baltimore Ravens (Away)
• Week 17: Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
• Week 18: Cincinnati Bengals (Home)

Commentary: The Steelers continue to epitomize the “next man up” mentality under the steady leadership of Mike Tomlin, who has a remarkable knack for getting the most out of his roster. Despite the departure of some key players, the defense remains the backbone of this team, ranking impressively across multiple categories last season. The addition of Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback marks a upgrade, but questions remain about whether the offensive line and skill positions can provide enough support for him to thrive. Justin Fields offers an intriguing backup option, potentially adding a dynamic element to the offense.

The loss of Diontae Johnson creates a void at wide receiver. The Steelers’ ability to maintain a strong divisional record (5-1 ATS in 2023) bodes well for their playoff aspirations, but they will need their offense to step up in high-stakes games, especially against tough competition late in the season. One interesting note is their 1H (5-12 1H ATS) vs. full game (10-7 ATS) splits in 2023. They started the games off slow, only to come back for the full game cover.

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