Author: Dominic Tremblay

• Date: Monday, July 29, 2024
• Game: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
• Start Time: 9:40 PM ET

As the Washington Nationals visit the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, all eyes will be on the matchup on the mound and the contrasting offensive capabilities of the two teams. The Diamondbacks, with their strong track record at home, have an advantage to continue their successful run, especially when Jordan Montgomery takes the hill.

Montgomery has been a stabilizing force for the Diamondbacks this season, particularly in the friendly confines of Arizona. The team is a perfect 5-0 when Montgomery starts as a home favorite. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have a 7-1 record after Montgomery delivers a quality start.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been superior against left-handed pitching at home over the past 30 days, ranking 5th in both wOBA and wRC+. This recent surge contrasts sharply with the Nationals, who have struggled mightily against lefties on the road, sitting 27th in these metrics.

Montgomery’s pitching arsenal, featuring a sinker (36%), curveball (27%), changeup (20%), and 4-seam fastball (15%), aligns well against the Nationals’ lineup. Washington ranks 9th in runs above average against the sinker but falls significantly against the curveball (28th) and changeup (26th). Montgomery’s repertoire could prove challenging for the Nationals’ hitters, particularly given that he’s due for some positive regression (4.31 FIP vs. 6.11 ERA).

On the other side, the Nationals will rely on their starter, Mitchell Parker, whose mix includes a 4-seam fastball (49%), curveball (25%), and splitter (17%). The Diamondbacks have been exceptional against these pitches, ranking 1st in runs above average versus the 4-seam and 2nd against the curveball.

With the Diamondbacks’ strong home-field advantage, a balanced lineup excelling against left-handed pitching, and Montgomery’s ability to deliver quality starts, Arizona appears well-positioned for another solid performance. The Nationals, facing a challenging matchup, will need to overcome significant hurdles to pull off an upset.

The stats and trends point to Diamondbacks ML (-160, Caesars) as a strong look tonight.

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Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

• Date: Sunday, July 28, 2024
• Game: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
• Start Time: 05:10 PM ET

Tonight’s game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park is set to be a high-octane affair, with both teams bringing potent offenses and intriguing pitching matchups to the table.

The Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon has been a significant factor in high-scoring games this season, with a 13-6-1 record to the OVER and an impressive 7-2-0 mark as an away favorite. His xERA of 4.26 suggests he might be vulnerable, especially against a Red Sox lineup that has shown proficiency against pitchers with similar repertoires, who have an ERA of 4.89 against Boston over the past year.

Rodon primarily relies on his 4-seam fastball (53%) and slider (27%). The Red Sox are well-equipped to handle these pitches, ranking 7th in runs above average against both the 4-seam and the slider. This sets up a fascinating duel, as Boston’s hitters have been in fine form recently, ranking 2nd in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ at home over the past month.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck, whose surface-level stats (2.71 ERA) might be masking some underlying concerns, as indicated by his 3.82 xERA. Houck’s pitch mix includes a slider (43%), sinker (31%), and splitter (22%). The Yankees’ lineup, known for its offensive firepower, ranks 9th, 1st, and 2nd in runs above average against these pitches, respectively.

The Yankees have been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road this season, ranking 2nd in both wOBA and wRC+. They also lead the league in runs per game on the road, further emphasizing the challenge Houck will face tonight. Conversely, the Red Sox have had their own issues with run prevention at home, allowing the 6th most runs per game.

With both teams’ offenses firing on all cylinders and the pitchers facing tough matchups, we can expect an exciting and potentially high-scoring game. The storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox adds an extra layer of intensity, ensuring that tonight’s showdown at Fenway Park will be a good one.

My analysis points to a play on the Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 (-108, DraftKings).

• Date: Saturday, July 20, 2024
• Game: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
• Start Time: 01:05 PM ET
  

Editor’s Note: I am happy to introduce a talented contributor to our team: Dominic Tremblay. Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

– Austin

In today’s matchup between the Rays and the Yankees, home/away splits will play a big role as Taj Bradley will be facing Nestor Cortes in Yankee Stadium in an afternoon game (1:05 PM ET first pitch). Let’s dive into each starter’s splits and stats.

The Rays will send Taj Bradley in the bump. He is not the same pitcher when starting on the road with a 6.20 ERA and a .309 OBA compared to 1.50 ERA and a .160 OBA at home. Bradley is 0-6 SU F5 as an underdog in his short career and 0-4 SU F5 as an away dog this season. He is also due for negative regression suggested by his 3.88 xERA compared to a 2.90 ERA. Also, the fact that he’ll face a good lineup in a home run-friendly park, where his 2.7 HR/9 and 42.4% fly ball rate on the road should play against him.

On the other side, Nestor Cortes will start for the Yankees, and he’s been excellent at home with a 1.81 ERA, a .190 OBA and a 0.8 HR/9.

Yankees are ranked 3rd with 3.13 F5 runs scored at home and 3rd in F5 runs allowed this season. In comparison, the Rays are 24th with 2.09 F5 runs scored on the road. The Rays are struggling with RISP lately as they are dead last in MLB, batting just .103 in this situation over the last 2 weeks.