Author: Austin Wang

Top MLB Betting Trends & Insights | Monday, July 29

Posted on by Austin Wang

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I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

  • White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts | 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP | lost 14 consecutive games
    • In addition to the clear trends fading Flexen and the White Sox, the Royals have a strong Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’ today, making this our favorite angle of the day.
  • Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024 | In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
    • There are aligning ‘over’ trends with both teams, and we like this to continue, especially in a hitters’ park like Camden Yards. Zach Eflin makes his first start for the Orioles, and we expect the hard-hitting Orioles to give some run support for their new pitcher. Has the Blue Jays offense woken up? They scored 20 runs in their three-game series against the Rangers.

Here are the rest of today’s trends:


Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

  • Orioles: 23-10-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Orioles: 13-4 O/U vs. RHP.
  • Blue Jays: 21-3 O/U vs. RHP dating back to June 23, 2024.


Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

  • Guardians: 16-5 ML when Tanner Bibee starts.
  • In L30 days, Guardians: 3-10-3 F5 ML vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Tigers: 16-4 RL (+1.5) as an underdog.


New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies

  • In L30 days, Yankees: 14-4-1 O/U vs. RHP.
  • Phillies: 25-4-4 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • Phillies: 9-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Zach Wheeler starts.


Minnesota Twins @ New York Mets

  • In L30 days, Mets: 23-3 NRFI.
  • Mets: 29-11 NRFI as home favorites.
  • Twins: 19-8-1 F5 O/U vs. LHP.


Texas Rangers @ St. Louis Cardinals

  • In L30 days, Cardinals are 18-6 NRFI.
  • In L30 days, Rangers are 5-0 YRFI when Nathan Eovaldi starts.


Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

  • Mariners: 4-16-1 F5 O/U when Logan Gilbert starts.


Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

  • Reds: 5-0 F5 O/U when Carson Spiers starts.
  • In L30 days, Reds: 11-3-2 F5 ML vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Reds: 18-5 NRFI.


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros

  • Pirates: 8-1-3 F5 ML when Paul Skenes starts.
  • In L30 days, Pirates: 20-6 NRFI.


Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers

  • Braves: 13-3 NRFI as a road underdog.


Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox

  • White Sox: 2-18 ML when Chris Flexen starts.
  • White Sox: 9-29 ML as home underdogs vs. RHP.
  • White Sox: lost 14 consecutive games.


Washington Nationals @ Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Diamondbacks: 5-0 F5 and full game ML when Jordan Montgomery starts.
  • Diamondbacks: 11-3 F5 O/U when Montgomery starts.
  • In L30 days, Nationals: 0-4 F5 ML when Mitchell Parker starts.


Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)

Top MLB Betting Trends To Watch | Sunday, July 21

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers! Hope everyone is having a great weekend. I’ve mentioned before that trends don’t always equate to a bet, but here are a few that are most compelling to me:

  • Cardinals: 9-1 to the under as road underdogs when Miles Mikolas starts | Braves: 7-1 to the under when Spencer Schwellenbach starts
    • There are nice aligning trends supporting the under on both sides. Furthermore, the Braves are 21-11-2 to the under at home vs. RHP.
  • Marlins: 4-14-1 F5 ML when Trevor Rogers starts (1-7 F5 ML as home underdogs) | In L30 days, Marlins: 2-14 F5 ML vs. RHP
    • Fading Rogers and the Marlins in the F5? Sign me up!
  • Royals: 15-5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP | White Sox: 7-31 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP
    • We’ll ride this one again. With Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals, we want to use this opportunity to include the Royals in a parlay.

Here are the rest of today’s trends:


St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

  • Cardinals: 9-1 to the under as road underdogs when Miles Mikolas starts.
  • Cardinals: 14-6 to the NRFI when Mikolas starts.
  • Braves: 7-1 to the under when Spencer Schwellenbach starts.


Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

  • In L30 days, Reds: 19-6 NRFI.
  • In L30 days, Reds: 8-2 RL (+1.5) as underdogs.


Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Pirates: 17-6 RL (+1.5) as home underdogs.
  • In L30 days, Pirates: 19-7 NRFI.


Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

  • Yankees: 22-6-3 F5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

  • Blue Jays: 14-5 to the over when Kevin Gausman starts.
  • In L30 days, Blue Jays: 16-3-1 to the over vs. RHP. (8-0 to the over in L14 days).
  • Blue Jays: 24-9 NRFI as home favorites.
  • In L14 days, Tigers: 7-0 RL (+1.5) as underdogs.
  • Tigers: won 8 of their previous 9 games.


San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians

  • Padres: 23-8 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
  • Padres: 8-0 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs when Michael King starts.
  • Guardians: 6-0 ML and 5-0-1 F5 ML as home favorites when Ben Lively starts.


New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

  • Marlins: 17-5-1 to the over as home underdogs vs. RHP.
  • Marlins: 4-15 ML and 4-14-1 F5 ML when Trevor Rogers starts (1-7 F5 and full game ML as home underdogs).
  • In L30 days, Marlins: 2-14 F5 ML vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Mets: 18-6 NRFI.


Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

  • White Sox: 7-31 ML as road underdogs vs. RHP.
  • Royals: 15-4-1 F5 under as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • Royals: 15-5 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.
  • Royals: 13-5-2 F5 ML (5-0 F5 ML as home favorites) when Seth Lugo starts.
  • Royals: 15-5 NRFI when Lugo starts.


Milwaukee Brewers @ Minnesota Twins

  • Brewers: 5-14 ML when Aaron Civale starts (1-6 as road underdogs).


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs

  • Diamondbacks: 7-1-2 F5 over as road underdogs vs. LHP.
  • Diamondbacks: 26-13 RL (+1.5) as road underdogs.
  • Cubs: 15-4 ML when Shota Imanaga starts (6-1 ML as home favorites).
  • Cubs: 25-9 NRFI as home favorites.
  • Cubs: 9-25 RL (-1.5) as home favorites.


Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

  • Orioles: 6-1 F5 under as road favorites vs. LHP.
  • Orioles: 30-14 NRFI on the road.


San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies

  • Rockies: 5-14 ML and 14-5 to the over when Ryan Feltner starts.
  • In L30 days, Rockies: 10-3 RL (+1.5) as home underdogs.


Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

  • Athletics: 7-1 ML as home favorites vs. RHP.


Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Red Sox: 19-8-1 F5 over vs. LHP.
  • Dodgers: 5-0 F5 ML as home favorites when James Paxton starts.


Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

  • Mariners: 29-10 NRFI as home favorites.
  • In L30 days, Mariners: 3-12 RL (-1.5) as favorites (0-6 RL as home favorites).
  • In L30 days, Astros are 10-2 RL (+1.5) as an underdog.
  • Astros: 14-4 to the under when Ronel Blanco starts.



Abbreviations:
– YRFI: Yes Runs First Inning
– NRFI: No Runs First Inning
– RHP: right-handed starting pitchers
– LHP: left-handed starting pitchers
– L30 days: in last 30 days
– L14 days: in last 14 days
– F5: first 5 innings (if F5 not indicated, the assumption is a full-game statistic)