Welcome back to a WNBA Weekend, with five games and a ton of implications. Here is the schedule:
GSV @ CON | 11:00 AM ET
IND @ CHI | 2:00 PM CT
LV @ DAL | 3:00 PM CT
PHX @ WSH | 4:00 PM ET
ATL @ MIN | 6:00 PM CT
We will start in Connecticut. The Valkyries suffered a devastating loss to their All Star Kayla Thornton, who is out for the year after a successful knee surgery. To further hinder their frontcourt depth, Monique Billings is also ruled out again due to an ankle injury. Last game, this left Janelle Salaun to lead the team in FGA at 14. This tracks, as Salaun currently boasts a team-high 27.6% usage rate when on the floor with Burton while Billings/Thornton are off.
Iliana Rupert, who was a part of French national team with Salaun, made her Valkyrie debut last game. She has experience with Nakase as they won a championship together for Las Vegas in 2022. Her connection with Salaun makes it so she isn’t really a threat to Janelle’s minutes, rather to the other limited depth in Fagbenle and Amihere.
Connecticut’s defense has allowed the most Paint Pts on the year (38.3 per game) and in their L10 games (39.4). In their L5 games alone, the leaders in PITP against them have been:
– PF Natasha Howard | 16 PITP
– PF Dearica Hamby | 15 PITP/gp
– C Ezi Magbegor | 12 PITP
– G Kelsey Plum | 11 PITP/gp
– G Kelsey Mitchell | 12 PITP
Really anyone that can slash can thrive, as CON has surrendered the most Pts to both Guards and Centers in the ten game stretch. The Sun have also ranked in the bottom three at limiting OPP APG (13th), OPP RPG (12th) and OPP 3PA (11th) in this same span – horrific defense.
Burton is another player that should post some high usage here, having complete control of the offense. Coming off an 0-7 shooting performance, which is unlikely to repeat against this soft matchup. In just 24 minutes last time these two faced, Burton notched 14 potential assists, yet somehow converted just 2 of them despite the massive Golden State victory.
Lastly, in the same on/off sample we used for Salaun, Hayes has averaged 1.35 Pts per Poss – higher than every other player outside of Rupert in her limited minutes. She was pacing for double-digit potentials herself after 27 minutes played, and defensively is in great rebound position off of Jacy Sheldon. As CON has allowed the most RPG in their L10 games, this has also come as the most rebounds to guards, where specific Sheldon defenders have thrived such as Williams with 9 & Clark with 8.
Granted, Sheldon didn’t start last game for CON, yet Allemand notched 8 rebounds off of Bria Hartley.
Mabrey returned to the Sun lineup last game after hyperextending her knee, and actually beat out her quoted minutes projection of “20-25 minutes” (played 26). She was still rusty nonetheless, shooting just 2/12 from the field. Her success is pivotal if CON wants any chance at winning this game, as The Valks have given up by far the most OPP 3PA per game on the season (27.5) and in their L10 games (29).
Typically the 3PA they surrender is not to opposing POA’s (Point-of-Attack), rather is from the player they choose to “sacrifice” in order to double inside action. Dallas got up 26 3PA last game, while Yueru and Geiselsoder combined for 8 of those attempts. The game before SEA got up 27, with Nneka notching 7 & Wheeler with 8. Mercury told the same story, with Westbeld seeing 8 and Akani supporting at 6.
Tomorrow likely sees some increased perimeter action from Lacan and Rivers, but that team is actively a revolving door in minutes.
Golden State has only been allowing that many threes due to their intent on locking down the paint; This defense has allowed the fewest PITP all season long – likely a bad story for Tina Charles; Charles notched just 9 points in her 20 minutes last meeting. However, her usage has soared to 28.3% in her last 5 games, which is 3% higher than when she won MVP over a decade ago – with 17.4 FGA per game in this span.
When Tina has seen 13+ FGA this season, she has notched 16 or more points in 14/15 games, along with all 10 games since the start of June (21.3 PPG).
IND @ CHI
No Atkins for Chicago, while Reese is battling a back injury. On Indiana end, Caitlin Clark remains out after reaggravating her groin.
Chicago without Reese is horrible, losing both games without her by 37 and 38 points a piece. This offense has been the biggest problem, failing to cross 20 points in any of the 8 quarters. Chicago has posted a sub 90 ORTG with Atkins and Reese off the court individually, yet with both off this falls further to under 80 (was 72.2 last game).
Natasha Howard has gone over 12.5 Pts in 10 straight games with >25 minutes on the court, while being 8/9 on the year when also facing a below average DRTG. Howard played 18 1H minutes last game against The Aces, and White seemingly drastically tightened the rotation as Boston, Cunningham and Mitchell all played that high of an early load as well.
In first halves with 13+ minutes played against those below average defenses, she has notched (L30 days):
– 7 Pts, 7 Reb, 1 Steal vs LVA (18.4 FP)
– 12 Pts, 7 Reb, 2 Stock vs CON (25.4 FP)
– 13 Pts, 1 Reb vs DAL (14.2 FP)
– 8 Pts, 7 RA, 1 Block vs LAS (19 FP)
– 10 Pts, 7 RA, 1 STL vs LVA (21 FP)
– 6 Pts, 11 RA, 1 STL vs DAL (21.1 FP)
You get it, and Howard has not fallen up 13 1H minutes in any game overall in this stretch.
LV @ DAL
Paige Bueckers is resting for this game – seems Dallas is starting to prioritize their 2026 draft. Meanwhile, The Aces just keep dropping games, now falling below the .500 mark after losing by 31 points to Minnesota. I begin to wonder how long The Aces can give Loyd extended run, as she shot 0-10 last game in addition to her 5 fouls. Since their championship run, the issue with Las Vegas has always been their lack of depth, yet Evans and Nye are good contenders to take her minutes.
The Aces just surrendered 109 points in regulation, which is the most points a team has let up this season. In their L5 games, the only team worse in DRTG has been Chicago, yet The Aces given up the most OPP 3PM in that span. With Bueckers out, Arike Ogunbowale has shot just 13 times per 30 minutes, which is not only lower than her season average of 14.4, but also far lower than when she was the lone star last season and shot almost 20 times per game.
Regardless of this, Arike has loved to get her shots up against Las Vegas, shooting 12, 17, 17, 13 and 23 times against them since the start of last season. Now, she faces an Aces team that gives up the most FGA to guards in their L10 games. We’re seen these figures:
– Paige 24 FGA / Quinerly 14
– Sabrina 23 FGA
– Mitchell 21 FGA/gp
– Gray 16 FGA
– Sykes 15 FGA
Can also add on Courtney Williams and her 23 points in her limited blowout minutes. Granted, Arike is posting her lowest FG% of her career this season at just 36.1%. Would argue that she also lost them the last game against Golden State. Personally, I am more intrigued by the DAL rookie duo of Aziaha James (drafted 1st round alongside NC State teammate Saniya Rivers) and JJ Quinerly.
Quinerly notched 5 steals alongside her 17 Points and 9 RA last game vs Las Vegas.
The Aces entire offense is now A’ja Wilson, who provided exactly what they needed the prior matchup with 37 Pts and 25 FGA. The Dallas double-big lineup is 1-6, and in that span have surrendered the 2nd most OPP PITP per game at 39.7. They have posted a B3 defensive rating, while surrendering the most Fastbreak Pts. All of their problems are derived from the lack of speed in this frontcourt of Yueru and Geiselsoder.
A’ja threw up 26 PITP, while Howard, Ogwumike, Boston, Thomas and Reese all notched double-digit points against Dallas in this lineup’s life. Ideally, A’ja would be supported by Jackie Young in a paint duel, yet Jackie has not been the same since her hip injury suffered after her 30 point game against Golden State. She has not scored 20 or more points in the four games since then, including just 2 points against Dallas.
Dallas has surrendered the most backcourt rebounds with this lineup as well, most recently shown by Burton’s 9 rebounds. On offense, the big duo of DAL spends a lot of their sets out on the perimeter, pulling opposing bigs into high action sets. Of course, this only limits opposing bigs from getting theirs if those two can hit their shots. Loyd, Smith and A’ja all got 8+ rebounds in the prior head-to-head.
PHX @ WSH
Phoenix is leaving this All-Star break playing every other day for 8 games straight, with The Mystics marking their third. Washington will likely be as fatigued as Phoenix is, given this is the 2nd game of their back-to-back. The hard limit remains for Sabally and Copper, both failing to cross 24 minutes in the two games thus far since their injury.
The Mystics typical defensive strategy is to force defenses inside, with high pressure on opposing guards, which has generated ultra low 3PA:
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 2 3PA
– Plum 6 3PA | Allemand 1
– Plum 5 3PA | Allemand 3 | Rickea 2
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 1
– Chelsea 2 3PA | Jackie 2
The top threat for Phoenix has been Sami Whitcomb, who has shot 7+ 3PA in all 6 games when playing alongside Copper/Satou/Thomas.
After Ogwumike’s 18 points, Washington continues to get beaten up inside at the expense of their high pressure. Hamby notched 25 PPG, followed by Rickea at 22 PPG, Azura at 15 PPG and Magbegor with 13.5 PPG all in Washingtons last 5 games. Alyssa Thomas, or Satou Sabally, can both succeed inside.
The Mystics are going to be playing back-to-back poor rebounding teams, coming off Seattle yesterday. The Storm allow the 2nd most OPP RPG in their L10 games, and Austin/Iriafen both notched double-digit rebounds. Now, they face The Mercury who have allowed the most in that span, along with 28.8 OPP RPG in their L5 games. The success has come from bigs:
– A’ja 18 Reb, Jones 11 Reb, Billings 9 Reb (19min), Shepard 8 Reb (17min), Griner 8 Reb (25min)
Citron has felt like she has had increased on-ball usage lately, especially as she has averaged 5 assists over her last 3 games, which is double her season average. She had 5 potentials to Austin alone last game, ending the game at 8 potentials after 10 and 9 the game before.
ATL @ MIN
The Lynx are 14-0 at home this season, and they have another chance to extend this streak against The Dream. At home this season, they have an astounding DRTG of 90.2. Here, they have allowed the fewest fastbreak points (7.1), free throw attempts (14.7) and generated the most opponent turnovers (16.2).
Atlanta has been beaten by PnR all season long, ranking 9th against the Roller and 13th against the Ball Handler. Luckily for Minnesota, their duo of Williams and Collier run the PnR at the highest rate in the entire league. When facing The Lynx, ATL had a clear choice of either defending Williams midrange (16 FGA) or dropping to defend Collier inside – typically choosing the latter. However, Collier could still thrive through the ‘Pick-and-Pop’, where she notched 6 3PA while just 3 of her 18 total FGA were directly at the rim.
Williams ended this game with 14 potential assists, and has o20.5 PA in 11/12 games this season with 12+ FGA and against a non-T4 PnR Handler defense.