Welcome to the first day of Commissioner Cup games – so each one of these games holds a bit more importance. The two teams from each conference with the best record in their cup games gets to play in the in-season championship, where players can split a prize pool of $500,000. Point differential matters in Cup, so expect player’s minutes to be less impacted by blowouts.
The Sun picked up their first win against a shorthanded Fever team two days ago, and now look for another against the 6-0 Liberty. The coolest aspect of this game is the battle between two MVP Centers in Tina Charles and Jonquel Jones. While both of these centers won their MVP on Connecticut, Charles produced her best seasons on the Liberty as she built up three-level scoring. Good motivations in this duel.
Charles has been incredibly unmotivated as a rebounder, producing a career-low 5.8 RPG and warranting a season-low 6.0 rebound line. There may still be merit to this line, as she notched 6+ rebounds in all 6 matchups vs Jonquel last season, along with 84% of games overall when she saw over 25 minutes of action. Starting Centers vs Liberty:
– Boston 13 Reb
– A’ja 16 Reb
– Cardoso 4
– Fagbenle 3, 5
– Dolson 4
Doing a pretty solid job at limiting. Given The Liberty are one of the most 3PT-dependant offenses in the league (31.8 3PG, 2nd), the rebounds they do allow is mostly to opposing backcourts. Mabrey has 9+ RA in all 5 of her games vs NYL, averaging 12.4 per game.
Cloud garnered Eastern Conference POTW in the opening week, Cloud averaged 18.7 points, 7.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. However, her last three games has generated just 4 PPG. May not be time for caution, as her matchups in those games of Golden State and Washington both love to apply high pressure on guards to limit driving. Inversely, CON has surrendered the 3rd most PPG to Guards, joining Chicago and Aces, two teams that Cloud faced during that opening week.
Cloud has a 20.6% usage rate in her 4 games where she played >25 minutes. 10/11 guards with >25 minutes have notched double-digit points vs CON, while the only miss (Sug Sutton) has just a 12% usage rate on the year.
The Seattle vs Aces rematch is going to be passionate, not only given the Commissioner’s Cup but also due to Seattle scoring over 100 points in their 20 Pt victory over LVA just a week ago. Aces actually won that 2H, but The Storm’s 58 1H Points – the most of any team this season – was too much to overcome.
Aces attempted to use A’ja Wilson as a nail passing operator, yet after her 4 1Q assists, she failed to notch another for the rest of the game. SEA would frequently bring 3+ bodies on her, collapsing immediately.
Hammon: “When we’re ice cold, that defense just continues to load up around her and make life difficult.”
Chelsea Gray has produced just 3.4 APG in her near 30 minutes of action, which less than half of her production in the last season Aces won a title (2023). However, Gray’s passing volume actually hasn’t decreased all that much, if any. Against SEA she logged 14 potential assists, and vs The Sparks notched 17. Only 7 of those 17 were to 3PT looks, but her teammates missed some easy inside looks to post up another low mark.
Ezi Magbegor was a point of emphasis for the SEA offense very early on, attacking The Aces in the Pick-and-Roll. This is the right call, as The Aces rank 13th at limiting Roll Woman points, 12th against Post Ups and 13th in Paint defense. Magbegor has averaged a double-double against Las Vegas since the start of last season, defending Kiah Stokes.
Diggins-Smith thus had 16 potential assists against the weak Aces interior. When she has notched 15 or more potentials this season, she has notched 10.3 APG with 8+ in all three. This has gone hand-in-hand with Nneka Ogwumike’s success, who has notched 20+ Pts herself in all three of those games.
Still no Alyssa Thomas for PHX nor Rickea Jackson for LAS, yet only AT played in these team’s first meeting a week ago. AT being out does change PHX’s offense a ton, who previously thrived on off-ball screens. Now, Satou Sabally is being used more directly on-ball. 16 on-ball picks set by Sabally last game was her most this season, accounting for 30% of her total picks set.
Satou remains the league’s leader in usage this season.
Sami Whitcomb has made just 5 of her 27 3PA across the last 5 games. However, her minutes are likely to remain consistent given her ability as a passer to set up Sabally.
With Westbeld in the starting lineup, the Mercury remain a very undersized frontcourt. Typically, the cost of a smaller team is allowing rebounds, which remains true for PHX, who rank 9th. The rebounders who have thrived vs PHX specifically have been the PFs:
– Ogwumike 8 Reb
– Azura 17 Reb
– Reese 15 Reb
– Iriafen 13 Reb
First game without AT left Shepard as the dominant rebounder, notching 10 for Minnesota with Collier inactive.
Expecting Collier to be good to go here for Minnesota given the stakes of the game, but her leash is likely to be short in a blowout scenario. Granted, The Valks have been playing pretty great defense, though are the worst defense at limiting Pts off TOV and in transition.
Carleton leads starters in %PTS coming from fastbreak.
Hayes (nose) did return last game, yet played just 13 minutes for GSV off the bench.