🏀Boston Celtics are 16-0 SU after a home loss since the beginning of 2024. Those games were won by an average of +23.75 points per game.
❓The Celtics are perfect at bouncing back after losing at home, and they aren’t just winning, they’re dominating. This trend works because elite teams with strong leadership, coaching, and championship expectations (like Boston) rarely allow losing streaks at home, especially when fueled by the embarrassment of a home loss. Their focus and adjustments after a loss tend to be sharper than most teams.
📊Denver Nuggets are 0-12 ATS with fewer than 2 days rest, following a road game where the spread was within 3 points of a pick’em.
❓Denver struggles badly to cover the spread when playing on short rest after a tightly-contested road game. This works because close road games often demand maximum effort, leaving the team physically and mentally drained for the next game, especially with limited recovery time.
📊Favorites who lost their last game playing a team over .650 in a different division who won their last game are 10-1 ATS on equal rest when the total is above 221.5 since 2023.
❓Favorites coming off a loss tend to rebound well against elite, unfamiliar (non-division) opponents when both teams are equally rested, especially in higher-scoring matchups. This works because good teams rarely lose consecutive games, and facing a top-tier opponent creates extra motivation and focus, while the unfamiliarity of non-division play benefits the more talented team.
🕢1:00 PM EST
📈Celtics are 4-1 ATS when their spread is between -2.0 & -5.0
📉Denver has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games when coming off a win.
#️⃣Boston is 4th in pts/poss. vs Denver who is 20th in pts allowed/poss.
#️⃣Boston is 2nd in off. turnover% vs Denver who is 25th in def. turnover%
🎯Al Horford has 6+ rebounds in 4 straight home games vs Denver. (7+ rebounds @ -105)
🎯Jayson Tatum has 10+ rebounds in 3 straight home games. (10+ rebounds @ +210)
✅Active on Boston Celtics -3.5
💎Best bet: Boston Celtics -3.5 (-115)
🏀Michigan State is 11-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 24.5 points after coming off a game where they made fewer than 9 three-pointers as an underdog. In this situation, MSU is also 11-0 SU, winning by an average of 16.8 points per game.
❓Michigan State dominates overmatched opponents when they step down in competition after playing tougher games as an underdog, especially when their outside shooting wasn’t great in the previous game. This works because the talent gap is so large, and Michigan State can impose their physicality and defensive intensity on weaker teams, even without needing hot shooting.
📊Michigan State is 19-0 ATS record when facing well-rested opponents who have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games.
❓Michigan State thrives when facing teams on longer rest who have been playing well, because Tom Izzo’s coaching and game preparation excel when his team is focused against confident opponents. MSU’s disciplined defense and adjustments disrupt rhythm teams who’ve been riding hot streaks.
📊Michigan State is 16-0 ATS in home games with rest disadvantage since 2023.
🕢1:30 PM EST
📈Michigan State are 10-2 ATS vs teams allowing 67 to 72 points per game.
✅Active on Michigan State Spartans -4.5
💎Best bet: Michigan State Spartans -4.5 (-110)
🏀Away favorites of -3.5 or bigger are 10-0 ATS since the 2023 season facing the Miami Heat on less than 3 days of rest. Those games are won by an average of +16.0 points per game.
🏀New York Knicks are 11-0 ATS since December 2024 vs teams below .500 with a spread of -6.5 or more.
📊Miami Heat are 0-13 ATS as a home underdog of 3 or more points, with fewer than 3 days rest.
📊Miami Heat are 0-8 ATS since March 2024 after a win as an underdog an facing a team above .250. These games were lost by an average of -13.3 points per game.
🕢6:00 PM EST
📈Knicks won the previous matchup by 9 points.
✅Active on New York Knicks -6.5
💎Best bet: New York Knicks -6.5 (-110)
🏒Above .500 teams (MIN) priced between +115 & -170 who lost their last game facing a below .500 team who won their last game are 17-2 SU since 2021.
🕢3:30 PM EST
📉Bruins are 5-15 SU as road underdogs.
🥅Jeremy Swayman (41) / Filip Gustavsson (75)
✅Active on Minnesota Wild ML
💎Best bet: Minnesota Wild ML (-150)
🏀Boston Celtics -3.5 (1.5u)
🏀Michigan State Spartans -4.5 (1u)
🏀New York Knicks -6.5 (0.5u)
🏀Los Angeles Clippers ML (0.5u)
🏒Minnesota Wild ML (0.5u)
🏒St. Louis Blues ML (0.25u)
🏀 Los Angeles Lakers are 0-17 ATS with rest against rested opponents, when the total is under 224 and they’re coming off a win where they scored fewer than expected points.
🏀 San Antonio Spurs are 0-14 ATS against teams with fewer than 4 days rest, following a game where they recorded at least 10 turnovers.
🏀 Toronto Raptors are 12-0 to the OVER following a game that went to overtime.
🏀 Utah Jazz are 12-0 ATS after a win where they made fewer than 13 free throws.
🏀 Portland Trail Blazers are 10-0 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents.
🏀 Chicago Bulls are 0-10-1 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points, after a win where their opponent made fewer than 22 free throws.
🏀 Phoenix Suns are 0-6 SU in their last 6 matchups against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
🏀 Michigan State is 19-0 ATS against rested opponents who have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games.
🏀 Michigan is 0-13 ATS in revenge games on non-neutral courts, when they are not favored by more than 21.5 points, facing teams they lost to in the previous matchup on better than 40% shooting.
🏀 Niagara is 0-11 ATS against teams allowing over 41% shooting, when the spread is within 3 points of a pick’em.
🏀 East Carolina is 11-0 ATS at home after failing to cover the spread in back-to-back games.
🏀 Merrimack is 10-0 to the UNDER at home, against teams allowing less than 47.2% shooting.
🏀 Manhattan is 8-0 to the OVER with rest in road games, where the spread is within 3 points of a pick’em.
🏀 Wisconsin is 8-0 to the OVER as an underdog against ranked opponents.
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
🔪LA CLIPPERS -1.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪MIA/NYK u220.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪ECU -9.5 (vs CHA.) is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪PRIN/CORNELL o155.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪CAR HURRICANES ML is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪NYR/NSH u6.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪STL/DAL u6.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🏒St. Louis Blues ML: 24% of public 💲
Dallas ML is the most popular side and the line dropped from -245 to -235
💲Smart Money detected coming in on St. Louis Blues ML
🏀Los Angeles Clippers -3.0: 18% of public 💲
Los Angeles Lakers +3.0 is the most popular side and the line dropped from -2.0 to +3.0
🏀San Antonio Spurs +13.5: 41% of public 💲
Oklahoma City -13.5 is the most popular side and the line dropped from -14.5 to -13.5
💲Smart Money detected coming in on San Antonio Spurs ATS
🏀New Orleans Pelicans -7.5: 45% of public 💲
Utah Jazz +7.5 is the most popular side and the line dropped from +4.5 to +7.5
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