🏀The Phoenix Suns are 0-9 ATS as an underdog, after a game in which they shot greater than 44.7% from the field.
❓When the Suns shoot well in one game, the market may overvalue them in the next, but as underdogs, they often fail to maintain that efficiency against tougher competition. This suggests their shooting success doesn’t carry over, especially in underdog spots.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS this season as favorites with a total above 236.0
❓The Grizzlies thrive in fast-paced matchups where scoring is high because their athleticism, depth, and offensive efficiency allow them to outpace opponents. When the total is set high, it often plays into their strengths, leading to strong ATS performances.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 14-0 SU in their last 14 home games when facing a team under .500. They have outscored their opponents by an average of +17.1 points per game in this situation.
🕢8:00 PM EST
📈Memphis are 6-0 ATS when their spread is between -7.0 & -10.0
📈Memphis are 2-0 ATS this season vs Phoenix.
📉Suns are 6-13 ATS vs teams above .550
🎯Ja Morant has 26+ points in 4 straight games vs the Suns. (25+ pts @ +145)
🎯Desmond Bane has 20+ points in 4 straight games vs the Suns. (Over 19.5 @ -110)
🎯Jaren Jackson Jr has 21+ points in 10 straight home games as a favorite. (20+ pts @ -170)
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Phoenix Suns ATS
✅Active on Memphis Grizzlies -7.5
🏀The Boston Celtics are 13-0 ATS in revenge matchups against teams holding opponents to under 47% shooting. They are also 13-0 SU in these games, winning by an average margin of +21.5 PPG.
❓Boston adjusts well after a loss, particularly against defensive-minded teams. Their elite offense and game-planning allow them to exploit weaknesses the second time around, leading to dominant performances.
📊Boston are 8-0 ATS in revenge spots against teams that scored 7+ transition points in their previous meeting. In these situations, they are 8-0 SU, dominating by an average of +25.9 PPG.
❓When an opponent scores efficiently in transition, Boston responds by tightening their defense and controlling the pace, preventing easy fast-break points and overwhelming teams with their offensive firepower.
📊The Toronto Raptors are 0-10 ATS against teams without a rest advantage after previously covering by 13+ points while allowing fewer than 13 fast-break points. In these games, they are also 0-10 SU, losing by an average of -17 PPG.
❓When the Raptors play well and limit transition scoring in one game, they tend to be overvalued in the next. They struggle to maintain consistency, particularly against teams that have had equal rest, leading to significant ATS and SU losses.
🕢7:00 PM EST
🎯Jayson Tatum has a double-double in 3 straight games. (To record a double-double @ +145)
🎯Jaylen Brown has 6+ rebounds in 4 straight games vs Toronto. (Over 5.5 rebounds @ -105)
✅Active on Boston Celtics -11.0
🏒Favorites who won their last game scoring less than 3 goals and are less rested than their conference opponent are 29-4 SU this season when their opponent is below .500 and is on a 1+ game losing streak having lost their last game scoring 3 or more goals.
❓This trend highlights a strong situational edge for disciplined, low-scoring favorites facing losing teams on a skid that just put up offensive numbers but still lost. The combination of fatigue, poor form, and false confidence from their recent goal-scoring effort makes the underdog vulnerable. Meanwhile, the favorite, despite their prior low-scoring output, is likely a well-structured team that controls play and capitalizes on the opponent’s weaknesses.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Leafs are 25-11 SU vs teams allowing more than 2.9 goals per game.
📉Bruins are 9-18 SU as underdogs.
🥅Anthony Stolarz (83) / Jeremy Swayman (29)
🎯Auston Matthews has a goal in 7 of his last 8 games vs east. conference teams. (Anytime goalscorer @ +110)
🎯Mitch Marner has a point in 10 straight divisional games. (1+ point @ -235)
✅Active on Toronto Maple Leafs ML
🏒Home favorites on rest advantage facing a team from the same division are 40-5 SU this season. Teams are winning those games by an average of +2.4 goals per game.
📊Since 2020, teams facing the Pittsburgh Penguins being at home for 3+ games in a row are 7-0 SU.
📊Teams playing against the Penguins since 2022 are 17-2 SU when they are on 2+ days rest and have allowed 11+ giveaways in the previous matchup between both teams.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Flyers are 9-3 SU as home favorites.
📉Penguins are 8-17 SU as road underdogs.
🥅Alex Nedeljkovic (33) / Samuel Ersson (54)
✅Active on Philadelphia Flyers ML
🏀Home favorites with a spread between -3.5 & -9.0 who was an underdog in the previous matchup between the same teams are 19-0-3 to the OVER this season when the total is set between 216.0 & 235.0
📊Away teams priced between +140 & +189 playing a non-conference team are 20-2-2 to the OVER this season when the total is above 221.0
✅Active on Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets OVER 227.0
🏀Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (1.5u)
🏀Boston Celtics -11.0 (1.0u)
🏒Toronto Maple Leafs ML (0.5u)
🏒Philadelphia Flyers ML (0.5u)
🏀Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets o227.0 (0.5u)
🏀 The Boston Celtics are 13-0 ATS in revenge games against teams that allow less than 47% shooting.
🏀 The Charlotte Hornets are 12-0 to the UNDER when the total is greater than 217.5, in games where they are avenging a loss of 12 or more points.
🏀 The Orlando Magic are 12-0 to the UNDER at home in the regular season, against teams they have lost to in consecutive meetings.
🏀 The San Antonio Spurs are 0-12 ATS against teams with fewer than two days of rest, following a game in which they allowed fewer than 17 made three-pointers.
🏀 The Milwaukee Bucks are 0-10 ATS as a road underdog between +2 and +9.5 against Western Conference opponents, when they have fewer than seven days of rest.
🏀 Marquette is 16-0 to the UNDER following a game in which they allowed more than 74 points, with a spread of fewer than 5 points.
🏀 West Virginia is 13-0 to the UNDER against teams that allow less than 34% shooting from three-point range, when they have fewer than four days of rest.
🏀 Iowa is 0-13 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 12.5 points in games with totals greater than 159.5, against teams that allow less than 43.5% shooting.
🏀 Baylor is 0-14 ATS as an underdog against teams that average less than 51% shooting, following a game in which they were the favorite.
🏀 Saint Louis is 0-11 ATS in revenge games against teams they shot less than 43.6% against in a previous matchup.
🏀 Wisconsin is 9-0 to the OVER on non-neutral courts when coming off a single-digit loss as a favorite.
🏀 Iowa State is 9-0 to the UNDER against teams with fewer than four days of rest, who they defeated by 10 or more points in a previous meeting.
🏀 Duke is 9-0 ATS as a road favorite when the total is greater than 135.5.
🏀 Cincinnati is 10-0 to the UNDER with spreads of fewer than 11.5 points, when coming off a game in which they made 13 or more free throws.
🏀 Tennessee is 10-0 to the OVER against rested opponents, when the spread is greater than -36.5 and they are coming off a game in which the spread was within 3 points of a pick’em.
🏀 Louisville is 10-0 to the UNDER as a conference favorite, following a game in which they allowed more than 80 points.
🏀 Northwestern is 10-0 to the OVER when the total is less than 142.5.
🏀 Georgia is 8-0 to the UNDER in revenge games, after going over the total in back-to-back games.
🏀 Mississippi State is 0-8 ATS in conference games, following a game in which they made at least seven three-pointers and recorded 12 or more turnovers.
🏀 Missouri is 0-8 ATS as a favorite, after a loss in which they scored more than 4.5 delta points.
🏀 Richmond is 0-9 ATS as a rested underdog, following a game in which they allowed at least seven made three-pointers on 31.5% shooting from deep.
🏀 Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS as a favorite when the total is less than 152.5.
🏀 Missouri State is 0-8 ATS as a favorite, after a loss in which they scored more than 4.5 delta points.
🏀 Prairie View is 7-0-1 to the UNDER as a favorite when favored by fewer than 7.5 points.
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of VCU Rams -15.5
(Spread went from -14.5 to -15.5 despite Richmond +15.5 receiving 60% of public bets and 75% of the money).
🔪WAS WIZARDS +3.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪SAC/CHA u232.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪KANSAS -6.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪PRAIRIE/MVSU u140.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
YESTERDAY’S RECAP
🏀Charlotte Hornets +11.0 (1u) ❌
🏀⏪⚠️Los Angeles Clippers +1.5 (1u) ❌
🏀UNC Wilmington -3.0 (0.5u) ✅
🏒Los Angeles Kings ML (0.5u) ✅
🏀Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 (0.5u) ✅
🏀Chicago Bulls +4.0 (0.5u) ✅
🏀⏪📈Atlanta Hawks -1.0 (0.25u) ✅
🏀⏪Eastern Kentucky Colonels ML (0.25u) ❌
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