🏀The Memphis Grizzlies are 17-0 ATS as a road favorite against Eastern Conference teams they defeated in a previous matchup when the total is greater than 221.
❓This trend suggests that when Memphis faces an Eastern Conference team they’ve already beaten, they not only win but also cover, especially in higher-scoring games. This likely works because familiarity gives them a game-plan advantage, allowing them to exploit the same weaknesses as before. The high total (221+) also suggests a faster-paced game, which benefits Memphis when they control the tempo.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 15-3 ATS facing a non-conference opponent with a spread between +7.0 & -11.0 in 2024.
❓This trend shows they perform exceptionally well against unfamiliar opponents when the game is expected to be somewhat competitive (not a blowout either way). This trend likely works because Memphis adapts well to new matchups, exploiting teams that aren’t used to their defensive schemes or playing style. The spread range suggests they are often properly valued by oddsmakers in these spots, yet they consistently exceed expectations.
📊The Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS (13-1 SU) in their last 14 games against the Eastern Conference. Memphis is outscoring opponents 131.9-118.4 in these games. Memphis is 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in these games on the road. Grizzlies are 10-0 SU, 10-0 ATS in these games as a favorite, outscoring opponents by +20.2 points per game.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Grizzlies won the last matchup by 15 points back in January.
📈Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS as road favorites.
📈Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs Indiana.
📉Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
✅Active on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
🏀The Philadelphia 76ers are 0-9 ATS with rest, following a game in which they scored fewer than 102 points.
❓This trend suggests that when Philly has a low-scoring performance and then gets rest, they fail to cover the spread in their next game. This likely happens because their offensive struggles carry over, even with extra rest, possibly due to injuries, poor shooting form, or matchup disadvantages that don’t improve overnight. Oddsmakers might overestimate their ability to bounce back, leading to consistent ATS failures.
📊The Boston Celtics are 9-1 ATS since 2022 when they had 15+ offensive rebounds in their last game and are on 4+ days of rest.
❓This trend indicates that when Boston dominates the offensive glass and then gets extended rest, they not only win but also cover at an elite rate. This likely works because extra possessions from offensive rebounds create more scoring opportunities, and with additional rest, they can fully recover and execute at a high level. The combination of rebounding dominance and fresh legs makes them extremely difficult to slow down.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📉Philadelphia are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.
📉Philadelphia are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs an Eastern conference opponent.
✅Active on Boston Celtics -7.0
🏀Atlanta Hawks are 12-0 ATS as a conference underdog of fewer than 11.5 points, as long as they are not at a rest disadvantage.
❓This trend suggests that when Atlanta is a moderate underdog in a conference game and has equal or more rest than their opponent, they consistently cover the spread. This likely works because they perform well in competitive matchups where they aren’t overly outmatched, and proper rest allows them to maximize their athleticism and scoring ability. The rest factor ensures they aren’t fatigued, which might be crucial for a team that relies on pace and shooting.
📊The Orlando Magic are 26-42 ATS (38.24%) on the road when they are priced smaller than -370 since 2023.
❓This trend indicates that when Orlando is a road favorite (but not a heavy one), they struggle to cover. This likely happens because they are good enough to be favored but not dominant enough to win convincingly, leading to closer-than-expected games.
📊The Magic are 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games with more than 1 day of rest. Magic are being outscored 106.3-92.3 in these games. Orlando has lost 5 of these games by 9+ points and has failed to score 100 points in all of these games.
🕢7:30 PM EST
📈Atlanta are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.
📈Atlanta are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
📉Orlando are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
📉Orlando are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
✅Active on Atlanta Hawks +1.0 or ML
🏀North Alabama is 0-10 ATS as an underdog against teams averaging more than 7.7 three-pointers per game when the total is below 152.5. They are failing to cover by -17.5 points per game in these conditions.
❓This trend suggests they struggle against teams that can shoot from deep in lower-scoring games. This likely happens because they lack the defensive ability to contest three-pointers effectively and don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up in these controlled-scoring matchups.
📊Lipscomb is 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 8.5 points or fewer when the total is under 154.5. They cover by an average of +12.1 points per game in these situations.
❓This trend suggests they excel in matchups where they are expected to win but not in a blowout, especially when the game isn’t projected to be a high-scoring shootout. This likely works because Lipscomb plays efficiently in structured, moderate-paced games, allowing them to consistently outperform expectations.
📊Lipscomb is also 7-0 ATS as a favorite against teams that have covered in back-to-back games while allowing fewer than 73.5 PPG. They are covering by an average of +14.9 points per game.
❓This trend shows that they thrive against teams perceived to be in good form. This likely works because their offensive style or matchup advantages allow them to expose teams that have recently played well but might be due for regression.
🕢8:00 PM EST
✅Active on Lipscomb Bisons -6.5
◼️Memphis Grizzlies ML 📊🖥️📢👨🔬
◼️Boston Celtics ML 📊🖥️📢👨🔬
◼️Atlanta Hawks +1.5 📊🖥️📢
📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team
🏀 San Antonio Spurs have hit the OVER in 11 straight games following a loss of 12 or more points.
🏀 Denver Nuggets are 10-0 ATS at home with a spread under 10.5, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀 Chicago Bulls have hit the UNDER in nine straight games with rest, following a home game in which they allowed 112 or more points.
🏀 Brooklyn Nets are 0-8-1 ATS against rested opponents with winning records, when they are on a winning streak of two or more games.
🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have hit the OVER in eight straight games against teams they previously shot under 47% against and made fewer than 14 three-pointers against.
🏀 Portland Trail Blazers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.
🏀 Old Dominion has hit the UNDER in 17 straight home games with fewer than five days of rest, following a game in which they shot under 45%. (vs Marshall)
🏀 Maryland is 0-14 ATS against teams averaging more than 9.5 turnovers and fewer than 79.2 points per game, when coming off an ATS win of seven or more points. (vs USC)
🏀 Oregon State has hit the OVER in 13 straight games when the total is greater than 129.5, as long as they are not favored by more than 15.5 points. (vs Pepperdine)
🏀 North Florida has hit the OVER in 12 straight games when the total is under 159.5. (vs Jacksonville)
🏀 Northwestern has hit the OVER in 11 straight games when playing on fewer than four days of rest. (vs Ohio State)
🏀 Le Moyne has hit the OVER in 10 straight games, following a game in which they shot greater than 44% from the field. (vs Saint Francis PA)
🏀 Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS as a home favorite, following a loss. (vs Coastal Carolina)
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Phoenix Suns -2.0
(Spread went from +2.5 to -2.0 despite Spurs +2.0 receiving 57% of public bets and 53% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Spurs ATS & ML
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Hofstra Pride -7.5
(Spread went from -5.5 to -7.5 despite Monmouth +7.5 receiving 77% of public bets and 64% of the money).
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Portland Trailblazers +3.0
(Spread went from +5.0 to +3.0 despite Los Angeles -3.0 receiving 80% of public bets and 79% of the money).
⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of S. Utah Thunderbirds +6.5
(Spread went from +8.5 to +6.5 despite Abilene Chr. -6.5 receiving 66% of public bets and 63% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Southern Utah ATS
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