The Memphis Grizzlies return home looking to shake off a tough road loss, and history suggests they are in a strong position to do just that. Memphis has won each of its last eight home games following a defeat, and they’ve consistently protected their home court against the Rockets, winning three of the last four matchups at FedExForum when Houston faced a Grizzlies team with a winning record. More importantly, Memphis has been a reliable team against the spread in these bounce-back spots, covering in each of their last eight home games following a loss. Meanwhile, Houston has struggled to maintain momentum as an underdog, failing to cover in three of its last four games in that role against Western Conference opponents following a victory.
The Rockets enter this game in excellent form, riding a four-game winning streak that has them sitting at 32-14 on the season, just 5.5 games back of Oklahoma City for the top spot in the Western Conference. On Tuesday night, they grinded out a 100-96 road victory in Atlanta, knocking down 19 of 20 free throws to secure the win. Jalen Green led the way with 25 points on 11-for-24 shooting while adding seven rebounds. Alperen Sengun contributed an efficient 18 points and ten rebounds, and Jae’Sean Tate provided a spark off the bench with 16 points as Houston improved to an impressive 17-7 on the road.
Memphis, on the other hand, has been dominant at home, winning 19 of its first 24 games at FedExForum. The Grizzlies (31-16) currently sit just 1.5 games behind Houston for the second spot in the West and boast a high-powered offense that ranks fifth in the NBA, averaging 123.3 points per game. However, their most recent outing was one to forget, as they were outscored by 29 points in the second half of a brutal 143-106 road loss to the Knicks. Jaren Jackson Jr. led the team with 21 points on 8-for-14 shooting, while Desmond Bane added 16 points and four assists. Ja Morant had a rough night, scoring just ten points and finishing with a minus-41 rating.
One key factor heading into this game is the status of Alperen Sengun, who is dealing with a calf injury and is listed as questionable. While Memphis plays at the fastest tempo in the league, both teams rank in the top six in defensive efficiency, making for an intriguing battle. The Grizzlies have won six of their last seven games and continue to be one of the best home teams in the NBA. Meanwhile, Houston has dropped five of its last seven games in Memphis, and asking them to navigate this brutal stretch of games, beating Cleveland twice, winning in Boston, then in Atlanta, and now in Memphis, all within the span of a week seems like an enormous challenge. If the Rockets can pull this off, it would be an incredible feat, but given the circumstances, this sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for the Grizzlies.
🏀Southwest division teams playing at home with a spread between -11.0 & +7.5 having lost their last game on the road are 19-2-1 ATS this season when the total is 211.0 or above.
❓Teams may be motivated to recover from a loss, they often perform better at home, and a higher total points line might encourage more offensive play, which can benefit the home team looking to regain momentum.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 14-0 ATS following a game in which they committed more than 14 turnovers. Grizzlies committed 26 turnovers last game vs NYK.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS when they are rested and they are coming off an ATS loss.
🕢9:30 PM EST
📈Grizzlies are 17-7 ATS at home
🎯Desmond Bane has 15+ points in 19 straight games.
🎯Jaren Jackson Jr has 21+ points in 8 straight home games.
🖥️Score prediction: 123-113 Memphis Grizzlies
🤖jaXon AI approved⬇️
The Grizzlies are currently favored by 4.5 points. They are coming off a tough loss to the New York Knicks, where they lost by 37 points, which should motivate them to bounce back at home. Memphis has been strong at home with a record of 19-5 this season and has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games. Given that they are looking to avoid a season sweep by the Rockets, I believe they will come out strong and cover the spread.
⏪🏀”C+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Memphis Grizzlies (Spread went from -2.5 to -5.0 despite Houston receiving 58% of public bets and 47% of the money).
✅Active on Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 (ATS)
The Orlando Magic are struggling as they head into Portland, having dropped four of their last five games, including a tough double-overtime loss to Miami. That defeat not only added to their recent woes but also allowed the Heat to jump them in the Southeast Division standings. Road games have been particularly unkind to Orlando this season, as they have the lowest average points per game away from home in the entire NBA. While this is a glaring weakness, the Magic will be looking to use it as motivation to turn things around. Their opponent, the Portland Trail Blazers, have also faced difficulties at home, losing 13 of their 22 games in front of their fans. However, this team has recently shown resilience, covering the spread in each of its last six games, even when playing with a rest disadvantage. The Blazers’ last home game resulted in a 22-point rout of Orlando, and while a repeat of that dominant performance is unlikely, they are certainly capable of extending the Magic’s struggles.
Portland has quietly become one of the stronger teams against the spread despite its overall record, going 26-20-1 this season and 9-3 in non-conference matchups. Orlando, on the other hand, has covered just once in its last seven games and is 9-15 against the spread on the road. The Blazers have also excelled as underdogs against Southeast Division opponents, winning five of their last six outright in that situation. On the court, Portland’s defensive game plan may revolve around keeping Orlando’s shooters outside. The Magic rank dead last in both three-pointers made (11.3 per game) and three-point percentage (30.7%), while the Blazers allow just 36.2 opponent three-point attempts per game, fifth-best in the NBA. Additionally, Portland holds a slight edge in rebounding, grabbing 12.5 offensive boards per game compared to Orlando’s 11.4. Foul discipline could also play a role, as the Magic commit 20.4 personal fouls per game, ranking 26th in the league. Portland enters this matchup after a 118-108 loss to Oklahoma City, but before that, they had won four of their last five games. Deni Avdija led the way with 28 points in that defeat, while Anfernee Simons continues to be the team’s top scorer, averaging 18.4 points per game. Shaedon Sharpe has also made a significant impact with 17.3 points per game, and Deandre Ayton leads the team in rebounding with 10.2 per contest. Scoot Henderson, the promising rookie, has been effective as the primary playmaker, averaging 5.1 assists per game. Overall, the Blazers have put up 108 points per game over their last five outings and are currently sitting fourth in the Northwest Division standings.
Meanwhile, Orlando is coming off a 125-119 double-overtime loss to Miami, despite a strong performance from Franz Wagner, who posted 29 points. Wagner has been the Magic’s most consistent offensive weapon this season, averaging 24.7 points per game, while Paolo Banchero follows closely behind with 23.9. On the boards, Goga Bitadze has been their top rebounder, pulling in 8.2 per game. Wagner also leads the team in assists, dishing out 5.4 per game. However, Orlando’s defense has shown cracks, allowing an average of 112.2 points over its last five contests.
While both teams are looking to bounce back from losses, Portland’s recent ability to cover the spread, coupled with Orlando’s struggles on the road, makes for an intriguing matchup. The Trail Blazers have found ways to stay competitive, and with their recent history of success against Southeast Division teams, they could be in a favorable position to extend their solid run on Thursday night.
🏀The Portland Trailblazers are 9-0-1 ATS vs Eastern Conference opponents when they are coming off a game in which their DPA (delta points allowed) was below 0 (which translates to the Grizzlies having played better than season-average defense in their last game.)
❓This trend works because the market undervalues Portland’s defensive momentum, leading to mispriced spreads against unfamiliar Eastern Conference opponents.
📊The Orlando Magic are 0-9 ATS in road games with spread bigger than -7.0, following a game in which they shot below 70% from the free-throw line.
❓Teams that struggle with free throws often indicate poor offensive efficiency or mental fatigue, which can carry over into the next game. Additionally, being a big road favorite means the market expects them to dominate, but if they are coming off a game with clear offensive struggles (like poor free-throw shooting), they may not perform well enough to cover a large spread. This suggests that the Magic might not be as dominant in these situations as the betting line suggests, making them overvalued in the market.
📊The Portland Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.
Portland is outscoring their opponents 110.8-102.5 in these games. Trailblazers have won 4 of these games by 9+ points. Portland is 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS in this spot as an underdog.
📊The Orlando Magic are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs Western Conference opponents.
Orlando is being outscored 105.6-91.8 in these games. Magic have lost 4 of these games by 13+ points.
🕢10:00 PM EST
📈Trailblazers are 9-3 ATS vs teams between .450 & .550
📉Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
📉Magic are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games vs Portland.
🎯Anfernee Simons has 25+ points and 4+ threes in 4 straight home games vs Eastern Conference as underdog.
🎯Deandre Ayton has 13+ rebounds in 3 straight games.
🖥️Score prediction: 109-101 Portland Trailblazers
🤖jaXon AI approved⬇️
The Blazers have been on a hot streak, winning five of their last six games and covering the spread in all six of those contests. They recently defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 125-112, showcasing their offensive capabilities. Given their current form and the fact that they previously beat the Magic 101-79 just a week ago, I believe they can keep this game close or even win outright.
⏪🏀”C+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Portland Trailblazers (Spread went from +4.5 to +5.5 despite Orlando receiving 75% of public bets and 40% of the money).
✅Active on Portland Trailblazers +5.5 (ATS)
🏒Teams that had less than 1 powerplay and 13+ giveaways in their last game are 2-14 SU in January.
⏪”C-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Montreal Canadiens (Moneyline went from -120 to -143 despite Minnesota receiving 55% of public bets and 59% of the money).
✅Active on Montreal Canadiens ML & New York Islanders ML
⭐️🏒Wild are 5-0 SU in L5 vs Montreal.
🏒Bruins are 19-2 SU in L21 home games vs Winnipeg.
📊When the opponent had less than 1 penalty in their last game at home and they had more than 1 lead changes, they (Winnipeg) are 4-14 (22%) SU this season.
🏒Oilers are 9-1 SU in L10 home games.
📊Opposing teams (Red Wings) that had over 10 giveaways and less than 18 hits in their last game that was a win are 14-37 SU (27.5%) this season.
🏒Hurricanes are 8-1 SU in L9 home games vs Chicago.
🏒Flyers are 6-1 ATS L7 home games vs New York Rangers.
🏒Tomas Hertl (VGK) has a point in 10 straight games.
🏒David Pastrnak (BOS) has a point in 8 straight games.
⭐️🏀Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in L5 away games vs Utah.
⭐️🏀Lakers are 5-0 SU in L5 vs Washington.
📊Teams facing HC Brian Keefe (Wizards) are 7-0 ATS when the total is 224.5 or less and they had less than 39 threes attempted in their last game.
🔪MEM GRIZZLIES -4.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪MIN/UTA o224.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪UNC Wilmington -11.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪UT Arlington -9.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪Morehead State u135.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪MTL CANADIENS ML is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪OTT/WSH u5.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
⏪🏀”C” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 223.5 (LAL/WSH) (Total went from 226.5 to 223.5 despite OVER receiving 75% of public bets and 72% of the money).
📊Teams coming off a loss as a road favorite, in a game that went over the total in which they shot above 50.6% from the floor have gone 35-1 to the UNDER when playing in games below 228.0.
⏪🏀”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens (Moneyline went from +124 to +120 despite Towson receiving 76% of public bets and 48% of the money).
⏪🏀”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Florida International +6.5 (Spread went from +9.0 to +6.5 despite Jacksonville St. receiving 52% of public bets and 33% of the money).
⏪🏀”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Mercyhurst ML (Moneyline went from +124 to +106 despite St. Francis receiving 71% of public bets and 46% of the money).
⏪🏒”C+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the San Jose Sharks (Moneyline went from +185 to +163 despite Seattle receiving 84% of public bets and 59% of the money).
⏪🏀”C+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Portland Trailblazers (Spread went from +4.5 to +5.5 despite Orlando receiving 75% of public bets and 40% of the money).
⏪🏀”C+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Memphis Grizzlies (Spread went from -2.5 to -5.0 despite Houston receiving 58% of public bets and 47% of the money).
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