The Houston Rockets are set to face the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on Monday night. The Rockets have been in impressive form, winning eight of their last ten games, including a recent 135-131 road victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. In that game, Jalen Green and Alperen Şengün each scored 26 points, while Amen Thompson achieved a triple-double with 23 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists. The team shot 54% from the field and 46% from the three-point line, overcoming a squandered 19-point lead with a decisive 10-2 run late in the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, the Boston Celtics have won five of their last eight games and are coming off a 122-107 road win against the Dallas Mavericks. Jayson Tatum led with 24 points, Derrick White added 23 points and four assists, and Jaylen Brown contributed 22 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. The Celtics shot 42% from the field and made 20 of 52 three-point attempts, taking control with a 34-20 second-quarter performance and extending their lead with a 37-point third quarter. Historically, the Celtics have dominated this matchup, winning 27 of their last 30 games against Southwest Division opponents and covering the spread in seven of their last eight games against the Rockets at TD Garden. However, the Rockets have shown resilience, winning each of their last seven night games on the first leg of a back-to-back and covering the spread in eight of their last nine road games against Eastern Conference opponents following a win.
Key players to watch include Derrick White, who ranks 13th in the league for three-pointers made per game (3.3) this season, and Jaylen Brown, who ranks 23rd for points per game (23.0). For the Rockets, Jalen Green is seventh in the league for fast break points (176), and Amen Thompson ranks third among qualified guards for rebounds per game (8.1).
In terms of team statistics, the Celtics lead the league in three-point field goal attempts per game (49.0) and have made the playoffs in 10 consecutive seasons, the longest active streak in the NBA. The Rockets rank first in opponent free throw percentage (74.0%) and field goal attempts per game (93.6).
Injury reports indicate that the Rockets are monitoring Cam Whitmore, who is questionable due to illness, while the Celtics have listed Al Horford and Derrick White as questionable. Given both teams’ potential absences, the Rockets’ recent performance, including their win over the Cavaliers, suggests they could keep the game competitive. While the Celtics are favored at home, the Rockets’ momentum may allow them to cover the spread in what is expected to be a close contest.
Boston is logically a clear favorite for this game. But with Houston’s recent form, it is a good bet to cover even in one of the toughest places to visit in all of pro basketball. The Rockets are 26-18 against the spread this season and have covered in five of their last six road games. Boston has gone 1-3 ATS in its last four home games and is 6-24-1 ATS after a win.
The Rockets will look to make their strength around the net count. They score 50.6 points in the paint per game to Boston’s 42.0. Houston also leads the NBA with 14.7 offensive boards per game against the Celtics’ 11.2. The Rockets will have the chance to execute their formidable 3-point defense against the best shooters from deep in the NBA: they restrict teams to 12.5 3PM/G, the third-best mark in the league.
🏀Teams playing vs the Boston Celtics after they won and covered the spread are 15-1-1 ATS in 2024.
📊The Celtics are 3-11 ATS this season at home off a 25+ assists game.
Celtics are 7-7 SU in these games – all as favorites. Boston are 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS in the last 5 in this spot. Boston are 0-5 ATS in this spot when less than double-digit favorites.
📊The Celtics are 2-17 ATS in their last 19 games coming off a 10+ points win.
Celtics are 2-5 SU in their last 7 in this spot as favorites. Boston has failed to cover in 13 straight in this spot as 6+ points favorites.
📊The Houston Rockets are 9-0 ATS vs rested teams coming off a game in which they allowed between 14 & 19 threes.
❓This suggests that Houston thrives against teams whose defensive weaknesses (allowing many threes) were recently exposed. The Rockets’ game plan may exploit that vulnerability, especially if the opposing team hasn’t had time to adjust despite being rested.
📊The Boston Celtics are 0-19 ATS in games with totals above 210.5 coming of an ATS win in which they shot over 70.5% from the free throw line.
❓High-scoring games with efficient free-throw shooting might overinflate public perception of Boston, leading to inflated spreads. As a result, the Celtics struggle to meet heightened expectations in such scenarios.
📊The Boston Celtics are 0-15 ATS as a favorite of more than 2.5 points when they are coming of an ATS win in which they scored less points than expected.
❓When Boston wins but underperforms offensively relative to expectations, they may not fully address their offensive issues in the next game. Oddsmakers might still price them aggressively as favorites, leading to ATS struggles.
🕢7:30 PM EST
📉Celtics are 1-7 ATS when their spread is between -5.0 & -8.5
📉Boston has dropped the spread in 16 of their 17 last games when coming off a win and faces Houston.
🎯Amen Thompson has over 3.5 assists in his last 4 games
🤖jaXon AI approved⬇️
The Rockets have been on a roll, winning 8 of their last 10 games, including back-to-back victories over the Cleveland Cavaliers. They are currently 15-6 on the road and have shown they can compete against top teams. The Celtics, while strong, have struggled to cover the spread at home, going just 8-15 when favored. Given the Rockets’ recent form and the spread, I believe they can keep this game close.
✅Active on Houston Rockets +6.5 (ATS)
The Memphis Grizzlies find themselves in a favorable position entering this matchup, bringing both momentum and a distinct edge on both sides of the ball. Memphis has been dominant in recent games, riding a six-game winning streak during which they’ve averaged an impressive 128.3 points per contest. This offensive surge is backed by their strong road presence, where they’ve posted a 14-8 record against the spread this season, translating to a 63.6% cover rate.
Both teams boast high-powered offenses, but it’s the defensive disparity that sets Memphis apart. The Grizzlies rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 107.1 points per 100 possessions, while the Knicks sit 19th in the same category, surrendering 111.4 points. Over the last 15 games, Memphis ranks third in offensive rating, further highlighting their recent dominance, while New York struggles defensively, sitting at 21st in defensive rating over the same span.
Historical trends also point favorably toward Memphis. The Grizzlies have been nearly automatic in night games against Eastern Conference opponents, covering the spread in 10 straight such contests while also winning all 10 outright. Conversely, the Knicks have faltered in similar spots, losing 10 of their last 11 night games against Southwest Division teams with winning records and failing to cover the spread in six straight games in that scenario. New York has been inconsistent against top-tier competition this season, going just 2-7 against the spread in nine games versus top-10 teams, with six of those losses coming by double digits.
Memphis also excels in key offensive categories, leading the league in both free throw attempts per game (24.2) and field goals made per game (45.3). Their ability to generate points efficiently, combined with their defensive strength, provides a significant edge in this matchup. On the other side, New York leans heavily on its starters, a risky proposition as the season drags on and fatigue becomes a factor. The Knicks are coming off a high-scoring win against Sacramento, but maintaining that level of output against a top-tier defense like Memphis is a tall order.
The Grizzlies’ consistency against Eastern Conference opponents, their road success, and their well-rounded performance on both ends of the floor make them a strong play in this game. They’ve covered eight of their last ten overall, four straight on the road, and are 14-3 against the spread versus the East this season, including 5-1 in road games. All signs point to Memphis having the tools to secure a win in this matchup.
🏀The Memphis Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games vs Eastern Conference opponents. Grizzlies are outscoring opponents 133.7-117.1 in these games. They have won 9 of these games by 11+ points, 4 by 20+ points. They also won 5 straight in this spot by 12+ points.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 70-17-3 ATS when their spread is between -9.5 & +8.0, their shooting% is above 44% playing an opponent they previously lost to and the total is above 204.5
❓Grizzlies excel in balanced matchups, combining efficient shooting, added motivation from a previous loss, and an offensive edge in high-scoring games to consistently cover the spread.
🕢7:30 PM EST
📈Memphis won their last 6 games outright.
📈Memphis are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
📉New York are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent in the Southwest Division division.
🎯Ja Morant has 27+ points in 3 straight games vs NYK.
🎯Ja Morant has 8+ assists in 4 straight games vs NYK.
🤖jaXon AI approved⬇️
The Grizzlies are on a six-game winning streak and have covered the spread in five of their last six games. They have shown resilience and depth, even with injuries affecting key players. Given their recent form and ability to score, they should be able to keep the game close or potentially win outright.
✅Active on Memphis Grizzlies +3.0 (ATS)
Both teams enter this matchup having faced their share of challenges in Big Ten play, but Ohio State appears to be in a better position to capitalize on this opportunity.
Ohio State has shown remarkable consistency in Monday night games, winning each of their last 18 such contests. Meanwhile, Iowa has struggled under the spotlight, dropping eight of their last nine road night games within the Big Ten. The Buckeyes have also displayed dominance at home, winning the first half in 23 of their last 24 games at Value City Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents. This trend underscores the Buckeyes’ ability to set the tone early, particularly against teams outside the national rankings. Defensively, Ohio State ranks among the nation’s elite in key categories. They allow just 4.3 steals per game, the fewest in Division I, and limit opponents to a 29.2% success rate from beyond the arc, ranking 25th nationally. Iowa, on the other hand, enters as the worst defensive team in the Big Ten, surrendering an average of 85.2 points per game. Despite their offensive prowess, scoring 86.8 points per game (4th in NCAA) on 50.5% shooting (3rd in NCAA), the Hawkeyes’ defensive struggles have been glaring, as evidenced by their 107.8 defensive rating. Ohio State’s recent performances in Big Ten play demonstrate their competitiveness, with four of their five losses coming by seven points or fewer. Led by standout guard Bruce Thornton, the Buckeyes are a few possessions away from positioning themselves as a top-five team in the conference. In contrast, Iowa’s road woes have been a recurring theme, as they remain winless in away games this season. Although the Hawkeyes snapped a three-game losing streak with a narrow 76-75 victory over Penn State, their inability to string together defensive stops continues to be a liability. Additionally, their struggles at the free-throw line, where they shoot just 68.5%, could further hinder their chances in a tight contest. Ohio State comes into this game with momentum after a gritty 73-70 victory over Purdue. Micah Parrish led the way with 22 points and seven rebounds, while Devin Royal chipped in with 16 points. The Buckeyes have been solid offensively, averaging 79.7 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 37.7% from three-point range. Their balanced approach on both ends of the floor sets them apart in this matchup, particularly against an Iowa team that leans heavily on offensive output to mask its defensive deficiencies.
This clash presents a contrast in styles, with Iowa relying on its high-powered offense and Ohio State leveraging its superior defense. However, the Buckeyes’ ability to contain opponents and capitalize on the Hawkeyes’ defensive vulnerabilities gives them a decisive edge. Expect Ohio State to take control of this game at home and extend Iowa’s road struggles while covering the spread en route to a convincing victory.
🏀The Iowa Hawkeyes are 0-11 ATS as an underdog of fewer than +9.5. Iowa is losing these games by an average of -15.3 points per game.
❓This suggests that when the market views Iowa as competitive but still an underdog, they often underperform, possibly due to mismatches against stronger teams or an overestimation of their abilities in tight matchups.
📊The Ohio State Buckeyes are 9-0 ATS vs teams that allow a shooting% over 44%, when they are coming off a game in which they shot over 35% from three. The Buckeyes won ALL 9 games by an average of +18.7 points per game.
❓This trend indicates they thrive against weaker defensive teams after gaining confidence offensively. Consistent offensive momentum and weak opposing defenses combine to create a significant edge for Ohio State.
📊The Ohio State Buckeyes are 9-0 ATS as a favorite with less than 8 days of rest following an ATS win of +8 points.
❓This trend shows they excel at maintaining form and energy in quick turnarounds following strong performances. This reflects their ability to sustain momentum, avoid letdowns, and capitalize on favorable matchups during shorter rest periods.
🕢8:00 PM EST
📈Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS vs teams allowing more than 72 points per game.
📉Hawkeyes are 0-3 ATS vs teams between .500 & .650
📉Hawkeyes are 0-2 ATS when their spread is between +5.5 & +9.5
🎯Sean Stewart had over 0.5 Assists in 4 of the last 5 games.
Iowa allowed over 0.5 Assists to Starting Cs in 10 of the last 10 games.
🖥️Score prediction: 91-80 Ohio State Buckeyes
✅Active on Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5 (ATS)
🏒Small away favorites between -115 & -185, above .500 and on less than 3 days of rest having won their last game taking on a division opponent that lost their last game and are below .500 are 20-4 SU since 2015. This system cashed the last 13 of 14 games it was active.
✅Active on New Jersey Devils ML
🏀Away favorites facing the Miami Heat on less than 3 days of rest are 15-1 ATS since 2023.
🏀The Magic are 10-0 ATS (9-1 SU) in their last 10 games after scoring 110+ points.
They are outscoring opponents 109-95.5 in these games. Orlando has won 6 of these games by 11+ points. Orlando has held opponents to 100 or fewer points in 8 of these games. The Magic are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 115+ points.
✅Active on Orlando Magic -1.5 (ATS)
⭐️🏀Cavaliers 5-0 ML in Home Games vs DET
⭐️🏀Wizards 5-0 ATS in Away Games @ DAL
⭐️🏀Knicks 5-0 Overs in Home Games vs MEM
🏀Lakers 10-1 ATS in Away Games @ CHA
🏒Penguins 6-1 ML vs SJ
🏒Canucks 8-2 ATS in Away Games @ STL
🏒Red Wings 7-1 ATS in Home Games
🏒Flyers 7-1 ATS vs NJ
🏒Kraken 0-7 SU in their last 7 games against Edmonton
🔪BKN Nets +12.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪DET/CLE o234.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪Holy Cross +3.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪HOU CH./SELA o139.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪TB LIGHTNING ML is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪PHI/NJD u5.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
⏪🏒Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Philadelphia Flyers (Moneyline went from +136 to +126 despite New Jersey receiving 74% of public bets and 52% of the money).
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