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Portland Trail Blazers -3 (-110)
Portland Trail Blazers (27-30) at Phoenix Suns (32-24) — Phoenix, AZ. Using the stats, insights, and tools over at TheMoneyBaller.com, the play is Portland Trail Blazers -3.
The Blazers come into this one with a rest advantage, revenge on their minds, and some motivation after suffering a 50+ point loss vs. the Nuggets. In addition, there is Baller System active in their corner. Phoenix, meanwhile, is in a nightmare scheduling spot – this is the third game in four nights, and last night’s double-overtime win against the Magic has left them physically drained heading into tonight. To make matters worse, Dillon Brooks went down with a broken hand, stripping Phoenix of a key perimeter defender and contributor.
Historical Matchups: In the last 10 H2H meetings between these two teams, the average margin has favored Phoenix by just 5.4 points despite an average line of -7.9 — meaning the Suns have consistently underperformed market expectations in this matchup.
Statistical Edges: Where Portland truly shines is on the glass and second chance opportunities. The Blazers are averaging 16.98 second chance points per game (2nd) while Phoenix gives up 15.16 (26th). Portland’s OReb% of 31.1 ranks 2nd, and their ability to generate extra possessions off offensive boards is a sustained, matchable advantage against a Phoenix team that is already going to be gassed after double overtime.
Trends to Note: Several situational factors align strongly for Portland here. The Blazers carry the “Back Road Favorite off Loss as a Home Favorite” Baller System — a historically proven and profitable spot (183-112-9 62.2% since 2018 and on a 7-2 ATS run).
Portland is the fresher, hungrier team with a built-in glass advantage that will only grow as Phoenix’s legs give out in the fourth quarter. Take Trail Blazers -3.