Minnesota plays their 2nd leg of the back-to-back, and with both of the games being early they aren’t even getting a full 24 hours of rest (in addition to the travel). This is their first, and will be their only, back-to-back for the 2025 season; Also helped to have 3 days of rest before this, so they should be okay.
The Lynx just lost by eight to Alyssa Thomas and The Mercury. AT now jumped Caitlin Clark in MVP odds (+650) after a 29 Pt performance (career high), insanity. Half of her 24 total FGA were jumpshots, and pretty open too as MIN collapsed often on Ball Handlers or inside. I have never seen PnR beat that Lynx team so consistently.
Luckily, they face Los Angeles. The Sparks in their L10 games have surrendered the most PITP in the league, at nearly 40 per game. In their last game, Indiana just poured on 46 PITP. Howard and Boston both poured on 20+ Pts. They also surrender the most OPP STL and OPP BLK, while ranking dead last in DRTG (CON doesn’t count anymore).
Napheesa Collier just had to go at Alyssa Thomas all game, yet now will garner a much more favorable matchup in Azura Stevens. She has notched 27.5 PPG vs LAS this season, off 23 & 35 points, along with notching 3.5 stocks. She would join a solid list of other power forwards to thrive:
– Reese 24 Pts (19 FGA)
– Howard 21 Pts (11 FGA)
– Stewie 17 Pts (17 FGA)
– Ogwumike 26 Pts (16 FGA)
Phee is over in 70% of her last 30 games with 16+ FGA, and 85% of her last 15 games with 17+.
Alanna Smith is the team leader in stocks, yet just had her first game of the season with none against PHX. However, now is a great time for a comeback. Other frontcourt players who are Top 5 in SPG or BPG this season:
– Gabby 8 Stocks
– A’ja 6 Stocks
– Magbegor 6 Stocks
– Stew 3 Stocks
– AT 3 Stocks
Great fantasy option, given the value of stocks. She will guard Azura Stevens.
Attack the Sparks inside or attack them from the perimeter, both are effective. LA is also surrendering the 3rd most opposing 3PT attempts and makes in the same 10 game span. All their opposing leaders in threes of course came from deep:
– Sabrina 9 3PA
– KMitch 7.5 3PA per game
– McBride 7 3PA per game
– Banham 8 3PA
McBride shot 7 3PA in both meetings vs LA this season.
The Sparks have been an average rebounding unit, yet those who have thrived are the players anywhere from the 3-5, as long as they don’t defend Plum. 6 starters (all PF/Cs) notched 10+ Reb vs LAS in their L10 games. Atkins, Gray, Williams, Cloud and Burton were all Plum defenders and subsequently the only players to play 30+ minutes and not notch at least 5 rebounds.
With Karlie Samuelson now injured, it’s likely that Courtney Williams takes Plum defensively. She has already notched 5 or fewer rebounds in the last 5 games vs LA, yet just 3 per game since Plum joined the squad.
While Williams is a high-effort defender, she will definitely grade as one of the easier assignments that Plum has had to face. She got up 16 shots regardless of who MIN threw at her (Williams or Samuelson), yet her shot quality was much higher vs Courtney, with 9 shots alone inside the paint.
Azura Stevens is going to be a key part at keeping that lane free for Plum to drive, as she is being defended by Alanna Smith who is one of the best shot blockers in the league, so that 3ball needs to fall. The Sparks have yet to face MIN and lose by less than 14.
A’ja Wilson is out with the wrist injury she suffered vs NYL. With her off the court this season yet with Jackie/Chelsea/Loyd on, those big three have notched:
– Jackie: 30.8% USG (1st), 33.3% AST (1st)
– Chelsea: 24.5% AST
– Loyd: 10 FGA per 30 (2nd)
Loyd has notched 16.7 PPG in the three without A’ja this season, firing up 8 3PA in all three games.
The Mystics are now even more likely to continue to apply high pressure on ball handlers. The Mystics have allowed the fewest OPP 3PA since Austin entered the lineup. Only one opposing starter has made over 2 threes vs WSH, while Young and Rhyne were the only two ball handlers to notch over 5 3PA. Jackie had two buzzer beater attempts. They have ranked Top 4 in DRTG, OPP PTs off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in this span. Guards have struggled:
– Atkins 10 Pts (7 Ast)
– Court 5 Pts / McBride 7 Pts
– Paige 16 Pts (7 Ast, in Reg)
– Rhyne 13 Pts (6 Ast)
– Gray 13 Pts (8 Ast) / Jackie 13 Pts
– Arike 14 Pts
– Williams 10 Pts (8 Ast)
– Atkins 11 Pts (5 Ast)
Consistent trends. Chelsea led the squad with 15 potentials last time these two faced, followed up by Jackie with 9.
Thus, the people that have thrived in these games vs WSH have been the frontcourt. Reese/Williams just combined for 26 FGA and 42 Pts (20+ each), and Collier poured on 28 Pts (21 FGA) the game before. Nalyssa Smith, the new Aces addition, could be in for a good day.
The Mystics are 5-3 since Austin has joined the starting lineup. During this stretch, they faced The Aces without Sykes and still managed an 11 point victory. This was their second highest scoring output of the year (94), where they only scored more against The Flint Tropics. Citron led this charge with 21 Pts off of 13 total FGA.
This game was a peak of Hammon’s frustration, and also where she first showed the “platoon swap” as she benched the entire starting lineup early in the 3rd Quarter. Here were all her quotes postgame:
“Terrible. Start to finish. We lost every quarter but that fourth quarter and a lot of that is because our bench came in and competed and did a great job. That’s what we’re going to need… just not no togetherness defensively honestly… we’ve played eight quarters against this team and we’ve played hard and competed in two of them. Two out of the eight.”
Sykes hasn’t played the Aces in over two seasons now, and also has been a lot more passive in the last 3 games since she returned from injury. Has been deferring a lot of isolation matchups in favor of the WSH frontcourt, which should continue today as LVA has ranked B3 to both Post Up and PnR Rollers this season. Granted, Sykes did have her most involved game vs CHI with 12 FGA in 32min.
Given the Aces are also limiting 3s hard as a direct note of Becky Hammon, expect Sykes, Austin and Iriafen to attack inside.
Shakira Austin on her 4 dimes vs CHI noted, “That’s always been something I’ve wanted to show. As a versatile post player who can pretty much attack anybody and have an advantage, I also am able to dish it out and find my teammates. … That’s just who I want to be is a versatile playmaker who plays on both ends.”