Tomorrow will be the earliest game of the WNBA season, with The Mystics hosting The Sky at 11:30 AM ET. The Mystics have already beaten Chicago this season, while holding a 3-1 record against them the season prior.
The storyline of the evening begins with Brittney Sykes, who spent her entire social media month of June asking for fans to vote in the All-Star game, just to miss out to rookie teammates of Citron/Iriafen. This season, Sykes is averaging career high marks in points (17.9) and assists (4.6), while tallying on a steal per game. She has yet to receive an All-Star nod in her 9 season career.
Last time she faced Chicago, she notched 32 Points off of 24 FGA. The Sky have allowed Top 3 Pts at The Rim this season, which has remained true across their last 10 games. They also remain a B3 DRTG, notably as they allow the most Pts off TOV and in transition. Great for a defense to offense player like Sykes.
Sykes, when facing a below average Rim defense (who isn’t a Top 3 DRTG) with 28+ minutes, has averaged 31.6 PRA per game – over her 24.5 mark in 7/8. Guards that love to go downhill against Chicago, who will remain without Cardoso (AmeriCup) to bolster the rim, have thrived:
– Plum 22 Pts (4/16), 20 Pts (6/17)
– Hayes 13 Pts (4/13, 4/7 FT)
– Gray 22 Pts (7/17)
– Copper 16 Pts (5/12, 23min)
Granted, Chicago has also struggled mightily at defending the perimeter. They are the only team in the L10 games to surrender double-digit OPP 3PM, off the 2nd highest volume. This has blossomed even further to near 30 OPP 3PA allowed per game since they last faced The Mystics. Granted, Washington has shot just 15 3s against them, with a third of those being from Sykes.
Washington shoots the fewest 3PA per game this season, at just 16.8. Citron leads the team at 4.4 per game.
Despite Angel Reese averaging an astonishing 17.4 RPG in her last 5 games, Chicago as a team has still given up over 35 RPG in that span (4th most). In the last meeting, Citron (Allen defender) and Austin (Cardoso defender) led the team with 9 rebounds a piece. Chicago’s starting lineup now includes Onyenwere instead of Allen. Here were the other recent leaders (>25min):
– Courtney 8 Reb (Atkins defender) & Collier 7 (Reese)
– Peddy 6 (Atkins) & Hamby 10 (Reese)
– Thornton 6 (Atkins)
– Gray 5 (Atkins) & Jones 11 (Reese)
Consistent trends here, despite WSH defying them. Should expect Sykes and Iriafen to thrive here.
The Mystics defense has been shifted since Austin joined the starting lineup 7 games ago. In this 7 game span, they have allowed just 5.9 3PM per game (1st), while ranking Top 5 at limiting OPP RPG, APG, 2nd Chance Pts and Fastbreak Pts.
Despite limiting assists well, we have seen primary ball handlers notch consistently high assist numbers due to this WSH lineup having a tendency to trap:
– Gray 8 Ast (15 Pot)
– Atkins 7 Ast (11 Pot)
– Paige 7 Ast (17 Pot)
– Court 4 Ast (14 Pot)
– Canada 4 Ast (13 Pot)
Atkins notched 16 potentials vs Minnesota last game, now averaging 14.3 per game in the three without Cardoso. In games where she has double-digit potentials, she has notched 6, 5, 4, 7, 5, 3 and 7 assists.
Will note again that Angel Reese has been an absolute monster on the glass, with 16+ rebounds in five straight games. She now has had 4 straight games with 15+ Pts and 15+ Rebounds, which is the longest streak in WNBA history. The other three players to notch 3 straight games? A’ja Wilson in 2024 (MVP), Jonquel Jones in 2021 (MVP) and Lisa Leslie in 2006 (MVP).
The Mystics haven’t allowed over 10 rebounds to any player since Austin has joined Iriafen in the starting lineup.