The Liberty are struggling without their non-American starters in Jonquel Jones (ankle) and Leonie Fiebich (EuroBasket Tournament), posting a 109.4 DRTG in their last 5 games (11th on year). While a victory over Atlanta did come in these last 5 games, that was the only game where Jonquel was able to run over 10 minutes – they lost 3 of the other 4 games.
They are about to be home for 8 straight games once July begins.
This prior meeting just shy of two weeks ago featured Sabrina Ionescu’s best scoring performance of the season, going for 34 Pts off 12-20 shooting. Sabrina’s last two games vs ATL has recorded 30+ Pts each. 12 of these 20 shots were off Pick-and-Roll, Handoff, or Off Screen action; Atlanta ranks 11th or worse in OPP Pts scored from all three of those playtypes, including recently:
– McBride 18 Pts (11 FGA)
– Atkins 29 Pts (22 FGA)
– Arike 21 Pts (14 FGA)
– Citron 17 Pts (14 FGA)
– Mabrey 34 Pts (22 FGA)
The NYL offense when facing ATL is so dependent on Pick-and-Roll or Handoff scoring that Cloud notched just 5 assists off of 9 potentials – the lowest potential mark she has notched in the Fiebich-less games. In fact, Courtney Williams on Friday was the first player in the entire month of June to notch over 6 assists vs Atlanta.
The Dream offense remembered Griner on Friday, after Smesko directly addressed her lack of involvement in postgame:
“That’s on me. We got to find her a way to get more deep touches, she is so good around the rim. We have had games where we have been hitting the threes, so it was easy to forget about the post presence with Bri and BG. Got to figure out a way to get her more involved in the offense”
The first play of the following game was immediately drawn up for BG, who ended the game with 16 Points, the first time she notched over 10 points in the last eight games. However, she still ran only 24 minutes in regulation without closing the 4th Quarter.
NYL’s current defensive weakness is their perimeter defense, surrendering the most OPP 3PA this month at 29.3. In addition they are B3 in OPP RPG, OPP APG, and OPP 2nd Chance Pts. The best RA performers against NYL in their L5 games:
– Alyssa Thomas 23 RA per game (12 Reb, 11 Ast)
– Rhyne Howard 16 RA (7 Reb, 9 Ast)
– Gabby Williams 16 RA (6 Reb, 10 Ast)
– Burton 15 RA (5 Reb, 10 Ast)
Rhyne, Gabby, and AT saw a large majority of their rebounds as defenders of Breanna Stewart. However, Rhyne matched up with Stewart as the ATL duo was able to match with NYL’s double-big of Sabally/Jones. Likely Burke starts instead of Gardner for size. Granted, matchup has seemed to be irrelevant as 16 starters in just these five games have 5+ Reb against The Liberty. NYL is a poor OREB unit without their key pieces.
Chicago rematches Los Angeles just 5 games later, and also was The Sky’s only win at home in June; Back on the road here. This most recent meeting came right after HC Tyler Marsh’s important press note on Chicago’s perimeter defense, “Just running people off the line at this point. Teams make a lot of threes because they also shoot a lot of threes against us and so we have to adjust to that… knowing that teams are playing kind of outside in against us, so just higher level of aggression running people off the line.”
The Sparks shot 7-26 from deep in the head to head, but then The Valks shot 11-30, so unsure if they made any significant improvements.
The Sky will be without Cardoso for the foreseeable future as she participates in AmeriCup for Team Brasil, which will make their interior defense almost as poor as their perimeter. This is screaming for another good game from the LAS frontcourt in Hamby and Stevens. Hamby in particular is intriguing, as a majority of her game was directly defended by Cardoso, yet now gets to take on the veteran Elizabeth Williams. At 32 years of age, Williams and Reese individually allow the highest OPP PITP per 30min when they are on the court.
Hamby notched nearly 3/4s of her 14 FGA in the prior meeting with Williams on the court, even going right at her when Cardoso was being checked for a concussion here.
Plum notched 16 potentials in the prior meeting as LAS attacked from deep, and should be in for an easier day as the paint defense softens. Sims returns, yet this hasn’t affected Plum’s facilitation duties. Of the players to notch over 10 potentials vs CHI, only 66% of what Plum has averaged vs this team thus far, they produced:
– Dream: Canada 8, Rhyne 4
– Mercury: AT 8 & 15 Ast
– Liberty: Cloud 8, Sabrina 7
– Wings: Paige 8, Arike 7, DiJonai 6
– Fever: Clark 10, Boston 5, McDonald 3
Luckily for Chicago’s offense, The Sparks have had the 3rd worst DRTG in June and the worst in their last 5 games. In that 5 game stretch, they have surrendered nearly 40 PITP per game, while also ranking B3 in OPP 2nd Chance Pts, Fastbreak Pts and APG. This inside damage has logically been dealt by the inside players:
– Collier 32 Pts (16 FGA)
– Cardoso 27 Pts (15 FGA) / Angel 18 Pts (12 FGA)
– Ogwumike 26 Pts (16 FGA)
All in the L5 games. Atkins led this team in potentials vs LA (13), and in the first game without Cardoso (20!).
Kahleah Copper almost fully back so this Mercury Trio is in full swing, which would make them even deadlier than they already have been. With Copper, Phoenix is 4-0, coming off a dominant 15 point victory against The Liberty. This win was logical, as NYL’s weak perimeter defense aligned perfectly with a PHX offense that leads the league in 3PA per game.
The Aces, however, have been a horrible Paint defense instead – surrendering the 2nd most PITP in their L5 games. Alyssa Thomas, of course, leads the charge in Paint FGA per game (9.0 with Copper), yet Copper has produced more than Satou has since her return.
At a certain point in the 3rd Quarter last game vs Mystics, Becky Hammon benched the entire starting lineup out of pure frustration. She noted, “Terrible. Start to finish. We lost every quarter but that fourth quarter and a lot of that is because our bench came in and competed and did a great job. That’s what we’re going to need… just not no togetherness defensively honestly.”
Then we got this too from Dana Evans:
“Becky’s been kind of teasing a platoon swap, a five in five out in that third quarter. It happened tonight… just to pick our starters up… we got to give them a boost. We got to be a spark off the bench.”
Sabally was the only starter last meeting to notch over 3 DREB, ending with 7 herself. The Aces team in general has conceded the 3rd most OPP RPG this month, and PHX’s zone leaves Satou in great position each time to be the beneficiary. Satou joins this list of frontcourt players to succeed in June:
– Alanna 13 Reb
– Shakira 13 Reb / Iriafen 9 Reb
– Thornton 11 Reb
– Boston 10 Reb
– Stevens 10 Reb / Hamby 8 Reb
– Ogwumike 10 RPG / Gabby 8 RPG
The Mercury defense has ranked relatively mid-pack in all key categories, yet do rank dead last in OPP Fastbreak Pts this month. This fits Jackie’s profile the best, yet historically it has been A’ja Wilson who has dominated this team. Averaging 31 PPG across four 2024 meetings, A’ja notched 21+ Points in all 4 games along with 14.5 RPG. Of course all PHX data has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the team had a complete offseason transformation from being one of the worst defenses last year.
Unsure what needs to be said about this Minnesota game, as hosting The Sun to kick off their homestretch is a recipe for a dominant victory. With Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks due to a hyperextended knee, the Sun get even worse, as she has the single-biggest impact on their ORTG as anyone on the team – going from 92.1 to 83.8 when she’s off the court. CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in OPP RPG
– 13th in DRTG / ORTG / NETRTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA / OPP FTM
– 12th in OPP 3PM
Collier had 33 Points, 6 STL+BLKs and 11 Reb in the prior meeting. Smith had 6 stocks in just 18 minutes of action (foul issues).
The Ballhalla tour continues, as they are on their 5th & final home game before being on the road for 8/10 July games. The Valkyries at home are 4-2 this month, 3rd in both DRTG & NETRTG in this span. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)
– Sabrina 1 FGM (11 FGA) / Stew 2 Pts (2H)
– Atkins 20 Pts (16 FGA)
The Valkyries have allowed just 27.8 OPP PITP per game this month, a league-best mark, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Ogwumike should struggle, yet SEA offense is so spread out.
The Valkyries offensive players are a revolving door, seems like a pure hot hand approach. Kaitlyn Chen, the first ever Taiwanese WNBA player, had just 5 total points on the season before running 25 minutes and doubling that on Friday vs Chicago. In turn, that was Burton’s first non-blowout game with sub 25min all June.
The last time Burton faced SEA, she notched 9 assists off of 15 potentials. She has averaged 7.8 APG at home with 25+ minutes on the court – but Nakase can go to anyone at anytime, only Thornton has been safe.