We kick off in Dallas, where the ideal storyline for the game was Clark vs Bueckers, a battle of the two most recent 1st Round Picks. However, Clark missed Thursday’s game vs LA due to a groin injury suffered against Seattle; She is considered day-to-day. Indiana, who is down Bonner (quit) and Dantas (AmeriCup), only had a 6-lady rotation vs LA, so this back-to-back could not come at a worse time.
The Fever’s June defense continues to have a specific identity of surrendering a whole bunch of Paint Pts (39.3, 13th), while in turn allowing little, to no, perimeter production (5.2 3PM/gp, 2nd). The Wings just recently acquired Li Yueru from The Storm, where she played a career-high 34 minutes vs The Dream on Tuesday. She has posted a double-double in both career games with 30+ minutes, with 15 rebounds vs ATL and a shot profile that is pretty fearless – at least in the first quarter, with 7 FGA to kick off that game.
Koclanes on Yueru noted, “She is just a motor up and down… extremely physical screener helping our guards get some separation and then continuing to roll and put pressure on the defense… She’s going to keep you honest—she can hit a bunch of mid-range, she’s got really good touch from the perimeter.”
The Wings have surrendered the most Free Throws this month, and currently its Aari McDonald who leads this unit in FTA per game (5.8!). Otherwise, the defensive weaknesses of this squad are their OPP Pts off TOV (18.3, 12th) and OPP 3PM (9.1, 11th). While three individual players already notching double-digit 3PA vs DAL this month should be an encouraging sign for Clark, it’s less encouraging that Clark has made just 1/23 3PA across her last three games. DAL likely remains without DiJonai Carrington as their POA defender.
Napheesa Collier, the current frontrunner in the MVP race, is remaining questionable due to a back injury. Reeve noted that this was “something she has been dealing with”, so will see if she returns here before Minnesota has a 4-game home stretch. She was active in shootaround before last game, so leaning a bit more towards her available – especially from a recent loss.
The Dream defense has surrendered the fewest OPP 3PM this month, at just 4.3 per game. The current leader in 3PT volume for Lynx has been McBride, throwing up nearly 7 attempts per game – practically doubling her next closest teammate of Phee. Only two players have notched over six 3PA vs Dream (Mabrey & Sabrina with 8 each), while ATL also plays at the slowest PACE in the league.
Alanna Smith has notched 11+ Pts in just 5/23 games with 2 or fewer 3PM, on the road, and alongside Collier/McBride/Williams since the start of the last season.
The Dream have been more susceptible to interior, downhill guard play. On the season they rank B3 against PnR Ball Handlers, Off-Screen action, and Handoff Pts. If it’s anyone, then seems like Williams is set to succeed, despite failing to notch o13.5 Pts in any of the 4 meetings vs ATL last season. Mabrey, Ionescu, Ogunbowale, Atkins and Sykes averaged 26 PPG as a group in seven of ATL’s eight June games. Kelsey Mitchell was the only top guard not mentioned there, who shot 5-16 in her blowout loss.
Granted, McBride averaged 25.3 PPG in her 3 full games vs ATL last season. She likely leads MIN in specific Off Screen and Handoff sets.
On the other end, Atlanta had one of the worst offensive performances we’ve seen from a team this season on Tuesday. They scored just 55 points off 10 assists, with Rhyne Howard alone contributing 23 of those, while notching 0 assists off of 10 potentials. However, Rhyne crossed 15 points just once in 4 meetings vs Lynx last season.
Griner hasn’t notched over 10 points in 7 straight games for Atlanta, yet Dream HC Karl Smesko also held BG to sub 20 minutes in three of those games. However, he noted in the post game, “That’s on me. We got to find her a way to get more deep touches, she is so good around the rim. We have had games where we have been hitting the threes, so it was easy to forget about the post presence with Bri and BG. Got to figure out a way to get her more involved in the offense“.
Last season, Griner had double-digit points in all 5 games vs Minnesota.
The Storm look to get back on track after losing to Indiana, with a few notes from the press conference on how that went:
“We were one for 10 from three-point range [early]. I thought the quality of looks was great… What hurt us was fast break points too—we’re usually a top team in fast break points and we were getting our stops and just weren’t converting on offense… I thought we were inefficient in transition.”
“We did a poor job of keeping them out the paint tonight—I think they got 50 in the paint… We conceded a lot of offensive rebounds in the first half that hurt us a lot… They out-teamed us tonight. I thought they were better than us in every category tonight and it’s unacceptable.”
Should be an easy get-back against Connecticut, who has been about as bad of a team as you possibly can be professionally. With Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks due to a hyperextended knee, the Sun get even worse, as she has the single-biggest impact on their ORTG as anyone on the team – going from 92.1 to 83.8 when she’s off the court. CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in OPP RPG
– 13th in DRTG / ORTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA
– 12th in OPP 3PM
The last time SEA played a B3 defense, they won by 31 Points vs LAS behind 98 points from the team themselves. The best part of these lopsided SEA games is the previews we get of Dominque Malonga, the 19 year old who SEA selected 2nd overall from France, with a boatload of upside that will be awesome for years to come.
The Liberty without Jonquel/Fiebich are not a championship caliber team. Those two currently lead the team in DRTG when they are individually on the court. Jonquel with her hurt ankle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, while Fiebich is still away at EuroBasket. They have ranked in the same groupings as Chicago, Sparks and Sun in DRTG, Pts off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in these last 5 games. They allow the most OPP 3PM.
Copper, after returning from offseason knee surgery, has now notched three games under her belt this season with steadily increasing minutes. Tibbetts has noted each game that she will “play more” than the last, and last notched 23 minutes six games ago vs Chicago.
Alyssa Thomas went for 15 rebounds vs The Liberty last game, where Jonquel Jones went down in the opening quarter. She now has notched 8+ rebounds in 4/L5 meetings vs Breanna Stewart, while going under 8.5 assists in all 5 of those games.
Cloud absolutely commanded this offense last meeting just over a week ago, with 20 potentials. By far her most assisted target this season is Breanna Stewart, whose been a recipient of 35 of Cloud’s assists – more than all other starters combined. Stewart today has to be the sole focus on PHX’s defense, averaging 25 PPG across her last 5 games.
Fagbenle remains out for GSV, but it has not slowed down this expansion team’s hunger. Do not sleep on Ballhalla. The Valkyries at home are 4-2 this month, 3rd in both DRTG & NETRTG in this span. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)
– Sabrina 1 FGM (11 FGA) / Stew 2 Pts (2H)
The Valkyries have allowed just 27.8 OPP PITP per game this month, a league-best mark, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Expect Angel Reese to struggle here.
Reese’s co-star in Kamilla Cardoso has left the team to compete for Brasil in the AmeriCup, which is likely to leave Elizabeth Williams to be inserted in the starting lineup. At 32 years of age, Williams and Reese individually allow the highest OPP PITP per 30min when they are on the court. Monique Billings can thrive here, but Nakase has only shown consistent minutes to Thornton in this frontcourt.
Chicago’s defense has surrendered the most OPP 3PM on the year, yet HC Marsh did finally address this problem ahead of their match vs LA on Tuesday, noting:
“Just running people off the line at this point. Teams make a lot of threes because they also shoot a lot of threes against us and so we have to adjust to that… knowing that teams are playing kind of outside in against us, so just higher level of aggression running people off the line.”
The Sparks shot 7-26 vs CHI, which from a volume standpoint doesn’t exactly make that quote encouraging.
Veronica Burton with 10 assists vs NYL on Wednesday, which is her second double-digit passing effort this season yet was her highest potential assist count at 22. Of the players to notch over 10 potentials vs CHI, which is a mark Burton has had in 12 of her 13 games since the opening, they produced:
– Dream: Canada 8, Rhyne 4
– Mercury: AT 8 & 15 Ast
– Liberty: Cloud 8, Sabrina 7
– Wings: Paige 8, Arike 7, DiJonai 6
– Fever: Clark 10, Boston 5, McDonald 3
Thornton is Burton’s most assisted too teammate.