ATL v NYL:
Jonquel is officially day-to-day, yet Brondello already said that she will play, and that won’t be with any restrictions. Her presence will be huge against this Dream team who are surprisingly struggling against Post Up (12th) and PnR overall as a system (10th). Likely the attack of Griner’s drop coverage.
We have seen frequent PnR Roll bigs notch good volume, such as:
– Cardoso/Williams 20 FGA
– Iriafen/Shakira 20 FGA
– Boston 9 FGA
Jonquel notched 20, 17 and 15 Pts vs Griner last season. Jonquel’s usage this season has remained at 25.3% – over 5% higher than in 2024. Oddly enough, no player has notched over 6 assists vs ATL in all of June. Unsure completely why, but ATL has been weak to Pullup shots and Off Screen work, so more individual action.
Stewart with Jonquel has produced less often, notching 30+ PRA in just 2/7 games. With Sabally also in the frontcourt now, Stewart can focus less on the glass. The only player to even notch over 20 Pts vs ATL in June was Mabrey, who did it out of the PnR role where she picked Griner apart off her jumpshots. Sabrina or Cloud likely to take that production.
Cloud hasn’t notched double-digit scoring outings for 7 straight NYL games, so it’s really hard to promote her despite what should be a quality matchup.
Allisha Gray just notched her career high in Pts last game at 32, get that lady in the All Star games. She is currently third is PPG this season at 21, behind just Clark (21.6) and Napheesa (26!!). While Gray’s perimeter shooting has been sensational this season (42%), she still has a player archetype that prefers to go downhill and slash.
All year, only one non-frontcourt player has notched over 3 FGM at the Rim vs The Liberty (Kelsey Mitchell, 4). Hard to get inside, and Clark did a majority of her damage from deep last game (7/14).
Griner since her injury has averaged just 14.8 PRA per game, compared to 23 PRA per game before it.
The Dream have a solid rotation of backcourt defenders with Canada back in the mix. We saw Sykes last game for WSH get an assortment of matchups, typically being Gray or Rhyne, while the other took Citron. Rhyne took Clark in the fever matchups,Canada should be focused on pressuring Cloud, yet whoever takes Sabrina is going to struggle on the glass.
Clark is the only non frontcourt player to notch over 5 rebounds vs NYL all year, while both Gray and Rhyne are set at 5.5.
CON v IND:
Saniya Rivers was listed available to play last game vs Chicago, yet didn’t end up playing – guess the illness she was dealing with was still persevering. Bonner is out for personal reasons, but given she is dead-last in the entire league in NETRTG (-33.2), this may just be a positive.
The big storyline here though is that The Fever are in a three-way tie with ATL/NYL in Cup standings. While they would need ATL to lose one of their final games vs NYL & WSH, a big win here in addition to that scenario would help their chances at home court in the final. The Lynx on the other end has a +63 differential through 5 games, while IND is +31 through 4, so expect these starters to search for a >30 Pt win and get some deeper blowout run.
CON is about as bad as you can be after losing to Chicago. In June, this team is ranking:
– 13th in DRTG (115.5 – next closest is 110.1)
– 13th in ORTG (86.5)
– 13th in Pts off Fastbreak (18.3 – next closest is 14.6)
– 13th in OPP APG, OPP C RPG
– 13th in Cup differential (-89)
Those who can get inside on CON, especially if they can operate in fastbreak, has thrived recently:
– Angel 11 Pts (2-7)
– Iriafen 12 (8 FGA), Sykes 28 Pts (12 FGA)
– Brionna 8 FGA (24min), Gray 13 FGA
– Jonquel 13 Pts (7 FGA, 23min)
Boston has a great trait of being able to seal quickly in transition, while also averaging 20 PPG in games with 24+ min and Clark this season. She ended on a 7/8 run with the same constraints to close out last season, also got up to 11 potentials last game.
No team has allowed more PITP than Indiana has in June, which has been an astounding 41.5 per game. NYL just notched 44 despite Clark back and in a loss (granted, still 88 Pts scored). However, slashers like Gray, Sykes and Stewart are 3 of the Top 5 in FGA <8′ in this span. Charles produced 16 FGA last game, but Nelson-Ododa could be better suited after shooting 2/8 in the first meeting.
Mabrey, after loss to Chicago, “I think it starts with me being more assertive at the one, like making sure that I poise the team and calm us down and make sure that we get the ball where we want it to go and get it from side to side, so that’s on me for sure.”
LVA v MIN:
A’ja will remain out due to concussion protocol, and the way the Aces have been playing has been discouraging to a competitive game environment. Even with A’ja, this team has been a B3 Paint defense all season long, and PHX attacked them with 25 FGA in the Paint.
Alanna Smith, as always, is back on the table. She averaged 31.6 fantasy points vs LVA last season despite just 28 minutes per game, a number she can smash as Shepard remains out. Hurt her ankle last game, which she returned from after halftime, yet was also able to sit the 4th quarter due to blowout. Isn’t even is questionable for this meeting.
The Mercury threw up 32 3PA vs LVA last game, who might be focused more on a collapse now that A’ja can’t be there to rim defend. The team is too well coached to not throw the house at Collier, who in turn is too intelligent to force herself into double teams. Napheesa has led the Lynx in potential assists across the last 4 contests, making the right read out of pressure.
I will almost never fade MVPhee, but shooting options like Smith and McBride likely get good volume up.
Young and Chelsea notched 12 and 14 potentials each last game vs PHX, getting to share their duties yet now entering a MIN defense that has ranked Top 3 at limiting OPP APG in both this season and 2024.
WSH v CHI:
Angel Reese with her first career triple-double last game, and also was the fastest forward to achieve a TD in league history. The best part of this game was her 2 turnovers, and WSH defense hasn’t been generating a lot of turnovers in June (10th).
What WSH does allow is a ton of OPP 3PA, at 30.5 per game, which is the most in the league. Chicago doesn’t generate a ton of 3PT looks, but Atkins does have it in her arsenal – while also facing her former team for the first time this season. This could get personal, as she will directly face off with Citron, who WSH drafted with the first round pick that they traded Atkins for.
The Mystics’ last 2 games have both featured >30 Pt margins of victory/defeat, yet Kiki Iriafen was pacing for her usual 27 minutes last game. This is encouraging, as she is in a highly competitive WSH backcourt that includes Austin & Edwards. What we got from Stanley the game before:
“With Kiki having a wonderful start and Kira having some really good minutes… it’s hard… Sika’s work ethic hasn’t dipped… it’s some amount of time, but it’s also just having a lot of good players in the front court and some depth there.”
Iriafen faces a CHI defense that is B3 vs Putbacks, PnR Roll Man and Transition.
GSV v DAL:
The Wings are already 1-11, but now their IR continues to grow. Ty Harris is already missing the entire season from her knee injury, and now Maddy Siegrist fractured her knee, won’t be season-long but for the foreseeable future. McCowan and Geiselsoder are two bigs off to EuroBasket, so the frontcourt is very depleted.
As you could imagine, DAL is super bad. They are currently surrendering 16.4 stocks per game in June, allowing the most blocks and the most steals against them. The 4 Centers to face DAL in this month have all notched 2+ blocks (Ezi 5, Alanna 4, Azura 3, Mack 2 in 13min), while 13 players notched multiple steals.
However, Valks don’t currently have a real Center, as Fagbenle has left to participate in EuroBasket. Her, Salaun, Vanloo and Zandalasini are the EU inactives. Thus, the frontcourt is only Thornton and Billings, while Talbot & Amihere can add a bit of size for the SF/PF spots.
Billings has 6+ Reb in 17/19 games where she saw just 22+ minutes. She’s been a journeyman, but DAL is on the list of former teams.
The Valkyries have won three games straight, and in those three we saw Thornton produce a double-double in each of them, averaging 33.3 PRA per game.
Meanwhile, Burton has came absolutely alive in tandem, producing 9 APG in that span off 16.6 potentials – despite one of them being alongside Vanloo in the starting line. Her FS is only adjusting for 1 stock off PRA line, despite averaging over 2 stocks a game. The Wings are B3 in OPP APG, while Diggins-Smith is the only guard to notch under 3 reb with >28min of action vs DAL in June. The notable figures:
– McBride/Carleton 3, 5
– Sims/Plum 3, 5
– Whitcomb 7
– Jackie 5
Plum, Williams and Wheeler all notched 10+ RA vs DAL of their 4 games in June.
We need to have some conversations about DiJonai Carrington. The Wings have a NETRTG of +12.4 with her off the court, compared to -15.1 with her on, leaving her individually with a NETRTG of -27.5. No one else on this team is even in double digits! This means nothing for prop betting as long as Koclanes refuses to acknowledge analytics and DAL remains injured, but worth noting.
Valks defense is another team that is struggling to defend the arc, while loving to show collapse on the inside. This unit has ranked Top 3 at limiting PnR Roll Man (2nd), Post Up (3rd) and Rim FGM (1st). Paige has now shot 19 times in the last 2 games, but Nakase is aware enough to look to limit her completely.
SEA v LAS:
Kelsey Plum is out for LA with a lower leg injury. Sparks have already been a bottom tier defense, but now will also see some offensive struggles. Game may not be competitive, yet LA’s weakness on defense has been their perimeter D, which doesn’t align with the slashing SEA offense.
Gabby Williams has now notched double-digit potentials in 4 straight games, tying Diggins-Smith in potentials in that span, which makes the constant discrepancy in their lines odd. Williams has o21.5 PRA in 5/6 wins this season and fantasy in 4 of those. Sparks are a B3 OPP STCK team in June.