Liberty are on the second leg of their back-to-back, barely edging out the Valks by just 5 points. Brondello in the post game gave props to Golden State’s effort, “We didn’t get into the paint at all, we just couldn’t get by anybody.” They were shorthanded Jonquel Jones, who was nursing a hamstring injury. Would expect her to suit up today, as here was Brondello in the pregame, “JJ felt some discomfort, so we’re gonna sit her tonight. I’ve been mindful of not overloading them. It’s early. We’re building up our conditioning… but we need to win, we want to win. We don’t want to lose a game we know we’re capable of winning.”
Jonquel is pacing for near similar production as her MVP season with Connecticut, as Cloud is really looking to find her. In the three games Jonquel has played 24+ minutes in, she has had a 25% usage rate in those games, and her season high in usage last season was 26.7%. In 2024, Jonquel was 18/20 to 14+ Pts when she saw >20% usage and >25 min.
The Mystics allow the fewest PITP, but a main cause of this is their high pressure on guards to limit them from going downhill. Meanwhile opposing PF/Cs have still shown great production:
– Jones 16 Pts (5 Ast) / Griner 18 Pts
– Charles 23 Pts (2 Ast) / ONO 18 Pts
– Boston 10 Pts (4 Ast)
– A’ja 15 Pts (5 Ast)
Noting assists here as WSH likes to choke in to help on post ups, which has left Centers to also produce high-quality assist looks to cutters. Jonquel to Stewart – who drew 16 fouls last night – could be a key connection for Liberty today.
The Liberty, The Fever and The Sun are in a 3-way tie for allowing the most OPP RPG this season at 38.2. Wilson, Boston and Reese have each thrown up 12+ rebounds against NYL, yet 5 of Reese’s rebounds came off her own “mebounds” in one possession; Given NYL was the league’s 2nd best rebounding unit in 2024, still skeptical on this early-season ranking.
The Sun are the only team who have yet to notch a win this season, with 3 of their 5 losses also being by over 20 points. However, facing an Indiana team without Caitlin Clark (quad, 2 weeks) provides an opportunity for a competitive game. This shorthanded Fever team just lost to Washington by 6 points, who notched 48 PITP.
Important to monitor the status of Marina Mabrey, who is questionable today with her own quadriceps injury (right leg). This is different from the right calf injury that kept her out of a long-stretch of Unrivaled, though same leg could be correlated. She is one of 4 players that are listed as questionable on Connecticut’s injury report tonight.
The Sun are pretty similar to Washington in %PTS coming in the paint, with 41.8% compared to The Mystics 43.8%. Expect another dominant performance from Tina Charles, who notched 27 points vs DAL, and Olivia Nelson-Ododa – whose minutes seem more secure for 28+ upside in a close game environment.
The Fever team also got pounded on the glass, as we mentioned earlier that they are part of the 3 teams who have surrendered the most OPP Reb. Mystics came up last game with 41 Rebounds, with their leaders being Sykes with 9, Citron with 7 and Iriafen with 8.
Natasha Howard was probably the most productive Fever player in the 1H, boasting a 52% usage off of 10 FGA and 5 rebounds. However, after a 5 minute 3rd quarter rotation, she never returned to the floor. White noted, “Stepping away from our dribble handoffs… settling for DHO. Making it a point of contention to get Boston more touches. Who can we have on the floor that play well together?“. Nothing directly on Howard; the common conclusion has been to attribute the lack of minutes to her 5 turnovers.
Of the 15 players to play >20 minutes and notch a >20% usage vs CON this season, 13/15 had at least 18 PR, while all 5 PF/Cs did. Those 5 bigs (Phee, Iriafen, A’ja, Coffey, Shepard) averaged 31 PR and 45.18 FP (low of 27.2).
The Lynx face a PHX team who is strikingly similar in archetype, possessing a smaller frontcourt that can compensate defensively with strong lateral movement and active hands. These two teams are both Top 3 at generating turnovers. Typically, the cost of a smaller team is allowing rebounds, which was certainly true for MIN last season (8th); This season, MIN is allowing the fewest OPP RPG (welcome back Jessica Shepard!), while PHX is 9th.
The rebounders who have thrived vs PHX specifically have been the PFs:
– Azura 17 Reb
– Reese 15 Reb
– Iriafen 13 Reb
– Ogwumike 8 Reb
Granted, all Centers have posted 8+ themselves, but AT running all facilitation for PHX does bring some gravity. Alanna Smith in for a big day on the glass.
Collier is questionable with a knee injury, which hasn’t costed her any actual gametime thus far. This season, no duo in the league has ran more Pick-and-Roll reps than Williams and Collier. Thus, when Collier is off the court, the MIN gameplan doesn’t change, rather substituting Shepard in. Shepard not only leads the squad in USG% (26.3) without Phee, but also in AST% (50) in her 19 minutes without Collier this season. Be mindful that McBride was also out for all of these minutes. Last season it was all Courtney Williams, with a 40.6% assist rate (team high).
Alanna leads the team in TREB% at 27.3, hauling in 6 rebounds in her 12 minutes of this sample. Off last season is averaging 6.1 Reb per 25min.
Alyssa Thomas has a ton of experience vs this Minnesota squad, facing them 8 times last season, with 5 of them coming in the postseason. She notched 8+ rebounds in 6/8 of those meetings. While MIN has allowed three Centers to notch 10 rebounds, they have surrendered 8 or fewer rebounds to all other positions. Satou is at 7.5.
Sami Whitcomb has shot sub 15% from the field in 3 of her last 4 contests, warranting a benching last game vs Chicago.
The Aces continue to look mortal after their back-to-back championships; Their last game was a 4 days ago against Seattle, where they got completely dominated in a 20 point loss. The Aces have surrendered the most OPP PITP this season at 41.5, which bodes well for the LAS frontcourt of Hamby and Stevens.
We’ll start with Dearica, who is facing her former team. In 4 games vs Las Vegas last season, Hamby notched 22 PPG, 11 RPG, 2.8 APG and 2.3 Steals. Now, her facilitation game has grown even further. After back-to-back 8 Assist Games, she now has 9+ potentials in 4 of her last 5 games.
Can’t forget Plum’s homecoming, who just was traded to Sparks in the offseason as Aces pursued Jewell Loyd.
Azura has been in blossom too, seeing 12+ FGA in every game except not against Golden State. Shot a rough 4/14 last game against ATL but was 7/12 twice and 10/14 in the 3 covers this season.
The Sparks have been a Top 3 rebounding unit. They only really surrender rebounds to frontcourtKelsey Plum with Paopao back in the lineup. She defended Bueckers last game with this lineup. Plum defenders:
– Samuelson 1 Reb
– Atkins 2 Reb
– Burton 2 Reb (Vanloo 0)
– Akoa Makani 2 Reb
– Gray 5 Reb (1 in final 3Q)
Jackie should defend Plum here.
A’ja needs to have a good game soon, as Aces have had two double-digit losses and just one win by 5+ points. Tonight is the night, as Wilson has gone for 30+ Points in 3 straight meetings vs LA along with 6+ stocks in all three of those games.
Chelsea Gray gets to benefit. Now has 4 straight games with 11+ potentials (14 last game), despite logging 25 or fewer minutes in 2 of those games due to blowouts. Since 2017, Chelsea Gray has never had 4 straight games of under 5 assists.
Griner is back for ATL today after missing the last two contests with a knee issue. She is the team leader in usage rate at 23.7%. While ATL has been a staunchly rebounding team due to their frontcourt size, they actually are 11th in OPP PITP. They have allowed shockingly high Post Up Pts (11th), likely due to them showing no help to opposing Post Up attempts. However, they also get burned in the Pick and Roll, allowing the most OPP Pts to Ball Handlers and 3rd most to the Roll Woman.