Published: Thursday, April 17, 11:40 PM CT
We’re down to the final two Play-In Tournament matchups — the winners punch their ticket as the 8th seed in their respective conferences and lock in a first-round playoff date.
Let’s break down the sharp angles for both games. 🔥
Heat @ Hawks
📊 Matchup Notes:
- Baller System: Backing road favorites who won the previous head-to-head matchup at home
- Heat: 5-1 ATS on the road in their last 15
- Heat: 48-32-2 1H ATS overall / 11-7-1 1H ATS as road favorites
- Model edge: Hawks (+1) have just a 48.7% chance of covering
✅ Play: Heat 1H PK
This is a first-half only spot, and the data backs it up. Miami has been elite in 1H splits all season, especially on the road, while they’ve shown a tendency to blow leads late. Tyler Herro has stepped up big-time in the absence of Jimmy Butler, and with Trae Young not fully healthy and coming off an ejection, the Heat should come out focused and aggressive. Even if Atlanta rallies late, the first half edge is clearly with Miami.
Mavericks @ Grizzlies
📊 Matchup Notes:
- Grizzlies: 80% to the Under at home over their last 15 (1-4-0 O/U)
- Baller System: Unders in quick-turnaround rematches when total opens lower than previous game
- Mavericks: 21-9 O/U as road underdogs
✅ Play: Under 221.5
This is a great setup for an Under play. These teams just faced off to end the regular season — that game closed at 228.5 and went Over, but now we see a total of 221.5, a 7-point drop. That tells us something: the market expects regression, particularly on Dallas’s side. Luka and company shot lights-out last time, but that’s unlikely to repeat. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, continue to play a gritty, slower style with strong defensive focus at home. Even though the Mavericks have hit overs as road underdogs, the matchup and the system both favor a more controlled pace and lower score.