🏀Iowa State is 14-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 42.5 points after shooting better than 49% from the field in their previous game. In this scenario, the Cyclones are also 14-0 SU, winning by an average margin of +22.7 points per game.
❓Teams that shoot well often build confidence, and when paired with favorable matchups and realistic spreads, they are likely to sustain efficient offense. Iowa State’s style (defense + sharp shooting) compounds that advantage against weaker or similarly matched teams.
📊BYU is 0-8 ATS as a road underdog with fewer than 5 days of rest when coming off a game where they recorded 15 or more assists, and they’re facing teams that average more than 7 made threes per game. BYU is also 0-8 SU in this spot, losing by an average of -15.2 points per game.
❓BYU’s defense tends to break down under these conditions, their ball movement doesn’t compensate for defensive lapses, especially against teams that spread the floor and hit outside shots. Fatigue, travel, and defensive mismatches pile up, leading to blowout losses.
🕢9:00 PM EST
#️⃣Iowa State +26.49 NetRating / BYU +22.30 NetRating
✅Active on Iowa State Cyclones -8.5
💎Best bet: Iowa State Cyclones -8.5 (-110)
🏀Teams who lost the last game of a back-to-back (ORL) while being favored by at least 5 points are 18-0 ATS in the following game when still favored between -4.5 & -10.0
📊The Orlando Magic are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS since November 2023 vs a team below .470, as home favorites after playing their last game also as home favorites.
🕢7:00 PM EST
#️⃣TOR is 26th in pts/poss. / ORL is 2nd in defending pts/poss.
#️⃣TOR is 23rd in TOV% / ORL is 2nd in defending TOV%
✅Active on both Orlando Magic -7.5 & ML
🏀The Los Angeles Lakers are 22-2 ATS at home vs a conference opponent after scoring 117+ points at home in their last game.
📊The New Orleans Pelicans are 0-10 SU & 1-9 ATS on the road vs conference opponents above .500 this season.
🕢10:30 PM EST
#️⃣NOP is 25th in eFG% / LAL is 9th in defending eFG%
#️⃣LAL is 10th in pts/poss. / NOP is 30th in defending pts/poss.
#️⃣LAL is 10th in eFG% / NOP is 29th in defending eFG%
🎯LeBron James has 26+ points in 5 straight games as favorite.
✅Active on Los Angeles Lakers -9.0 & ML
🏒The Seattle Kraken are 0-7 SU in night games being priced -154 or less this season after a home win.
📊The Minnesota Wild are 12-3 SU this season when they’re priced below +105 vs teams under .430
🕢10:00 PM EST
🥅Filip Gustavsson (55) / Joey Daccord (80)
✅Active on Minnesota Wild ML
💎Best bet: Minnesota Wild ML (+100)
🏀Orlando Magic ML + Los Angeles Lakers ML (2u)
🏀Orlando Magic -7.5 (1u)
🏀Los Angeles Lakers -9.0 (0.5u)
🏒Minnesota Wild ML (0.5u)
🏀 San Antonio Spurs are 0-15 ATS against teams with fewer than 4 days of rest, after a game where they committed at least 10 turnovers.
🏀 Houston Rockets are 10-0 to the OVER against Eastern Conference teams, when the total is under 235.5 and they allowed 128 or more points in their previous game.
🏀 Toronto Raptors are 10-0-1 to the UNDER with fewer than 3 days of rest, when facing a team they previously beat as an underdog.
🏀 New York Knicks are 10-0-1 to the OVER against Western Conference opponents coming off a win, when the total is below 244.5.
🏀 Chicago Bulls are 9-0 to the UNDER in revenge games against conference opponents, when they made fewer than 14 three-pointers in the previous matchup.
🏀 Atlanta Hawks are 9-0 ATS after a win where they shot better than 50% from the field and committed fewer than 16 turnovers.
🏀 Philadelphia 76ers are 0-7 ATS against Western Conference teams they defeated in their last meeting.
🏀 Los Angeles Clippers are 7-0 to the UNDER in games with point spreads between pick’em and 3 points.
🏀 Los Angeles Lakers are 7-0 to the UNDER in their last 7 games.
🏀 Kentucky Wildcats are 21-0 to the OVER in conference games with totals under 165.5, when coming off an ATS loss against a ranked opponent.
🏀 Memphis is 0-18 ATS as a favorite of more than 7.5 points, against teams averaging less than 46.6% shooting.
🏀 Iowa State is 14-0 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 42.5 points, after a game where they shot better than 49% from the field.
🏀 Arizona is 11-0 ATS with multiple days of rest and totals over 145, after an ATS loss where they forced at least 14 turnovers.
🏀 South Carolina is 10-0 ATS at home when the spread is within 3 points of pick’em.
🏀 Georgia is 9-0 to the UNDER with spreads within 3 points of pick’em, against teams averaging under 45% shooting.
🏀 Texas A&M is 0-9 ATS with rest, following an ATS loss by more than 8.5 points.
🏀 Rutgers is 8-0 to the OVER on the road with fewer than 6 days of rest, in revenge games.
🏀 University of Texas is 8-0 to the OVER in their last 8 games.
🏀 VCU is 7-0 to the OVER in revenge games.
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
🔪CLB BLUE JACKETS ML is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪SJS/BUF o6.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪BKN NETS +3.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪GSW/NYK u226.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪TEX A&M +4.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪VIRGINIA T./SCAR u139.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
YESTERDAY’S RECAP
💰Wake Forest @ Duke OVER 145.0 (+0.91u)
❌Memphis ML & J. Morant 5+ assists + D. Bane 15+ points (-1.0u)
💰Ottawa Senators +1.5 & Tim Stutzle 1+ points (+1.1u)
❌Toronto Maple Leafs ML & A. Matthews + M. Marner 1+ point (-0.5u)
❌Los Angeles Kings -1.5 (-0.5u)
💰Portland Trailblazers ML (+0.53u)
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