🏀Home favorites (Pacers) between -3.5 & -9.0 who was an underdog in their last game are 18-0 to the OVER this season when the total is between 216.0 & 235.0 vs a non-conference opponent.
❓This trend suggests that when the Pacers transition from an underdog to a mid-sized home favorite, their games become high-scoring, especially against non-conference teams. This likely works because Pacers games tend to play at a faster pace, and when facing unfamiliar opponents, defensive intensity may dip, leading to more efficient scoring from both sides.
📊Los Angeles Clippers are 9-0-1 to the OVER when avenging a loss as a favorite against Eastern Conference opponents who average more than 10.8 three-pointers made per game.
❓This trend indicates that when the Clippers are seeking revenge, especially against teams that rely on three-point shooting, their games become high-scoring. This works because the Clippers may push the tempo and emphasize offense in rematch scenarios, while high-volume three-point shooting from their opponent contributes to an up-tempo game.
📊Away underdogs (Clippers) between +135 & +189 are 19-2-2 to the OVER this season with totals above 221.0 vs a non-conference opponent.
❓This shows that when the Clippers are in a specific underdog range against non-conference teams, their games consistently go OVER. This works because as an underdog, they may be less focused on defense, while non-conference matchups often create unfamiliar defensive matchups, leading to higher efficiency and scoring pace.
🕢5:00 PM EST
📈Pacers are 13-3-1 to the OVER when the total is set between 229.0 & 232.0
📈The OVER has hit in 8 of their last 9 meetings.
🎯Bennedict Mathurin has 16+ points in 5 straight games.
🎯Kawhi Leonard has 23+ points in 4 straight games in Indiana.
✅Active on Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers OVER 230.5
🏀Teams on 1+ days of rest who lost the last matchup between both teams with a spread lower than 11.5 are 22-2 ATS when facing the Atlanta Hawks since 2021.
❓This suggests that teams tend to bounce back strongly against Atlanta when they have rest and a recent loss in the matchup. This works because the Hawks may struggle with adjustments, while rested teams facing a familiar opponent make better strategic changes to cover the spread.
📊Detroit Pistons are 7-0 ATS as a road favorite, against teams averaging more than 24 assists per game.
❓This likely works because Detroit’s defensive schemes might be effective against ball movement-heavy offenses, limiting easy scoring opportunities while capitalizing on transition play.
📊Atlanta Hawks are 0-7 ATS as a conference underdog of fewer than 5.5 points, when facing a team they previously beat as an underdog.
❓This indicates that the Hawks struggle to cover when expected to compete in a tight rematch against teams they previously upset. This likely works because teams that were previously upset come in more motivated and prepared, while Atlanta may not perform as well when they are expected to keep the game close.
🕢6:00 PM EST
📈Pistons are 6-1 ATS as road favorites.
📈The road team has covered the spread in 6 straight games between Detroit and Atlanta.
🎯Cade Cunningham has 6+ rebounds in 3 straight games vs Atlanta. (Over 5.5 @ -135)
🎯Cade Cunningham has 10+ assists in 5 straight road games vs So.Ea. division. (10+ @ -145)
✅Active on Detroit Pistons -3.0
🏒Colorado Avalanche are 27-1 SU since 2021 when they are playing the second game of a back-to-back being favored by at least -140.
🕢6:00 PM EST
📈Avalanche are 5-2 SU in the 2nd game of back-to-back this season.
📉Blues are 1-4 SU in the 2nd game of back-to-back this season.
📉St. Louis has lost 10 straight home games against Colorado.
🥅MacKenzie Blackwood (70) / Jordan Binnington (30)
🎯Jonathan Drouin has a point in 5 straight games vs St.Louis (1+ point @ -130)
✅Active on Colorado Avalanche ML
🏀Temple has gone OVER in 16 straight games and are 21-5 to the OVER this season.
🕢2:00 PM EST
✅Active on Temple Owls @ UAB Blazers OVER 162.5
◼️LAC/IND over 230.5
◼️DETROIT PISTONS -3.0
◼️COLORADO AVALANCHE ML
📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team
🏀🖥️ Orlando Magic are 13-0 ATS against conference opponents they defeated by 20 or more points in a previous meeting.
⏪”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Orlando Magic -13.0
(Spread went from -12.0 to -13.0 despite Washington +13.0 receiving 62% of public bets and 54% of the money).
🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have gone OVER in 13 straight games as a single-digit home favorite, when the total is under 239.5 and they are coming off a home win in which they scored fewer than -4 delta points.
🏀 New York Knicks are 12-0-1 to the OVER as a regular season underdog.
🏀 Phoenix Suns have gone UNDER in 12 straight games with fewer than two days of rest, when coming off a game in which their opponent recorded at least 27 assists and made 17 or more three-pointers.
⏪”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 227.5
(Total went from 228.5 to 227.5 despite the Over receiving 81% of public bets and 82% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
🏀👨🔬🖥️💯 Oklahoma City Thunder are 10-0 ATS with rest in revenge games.
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Minnesota +9.0
🏀🖥️📢💯 Cleveland Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than -14 points, against a Western Conference opponent they beat in a previous matchup.
🏀💯 Dallas Mavericks have gone OVER in eight straight games as an underdog, against teams averaging fewer than 46 rebounds per game.
🏀🖥️ San Antonio Spurs are 0-11 ATS with fewer than two days of rest as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀💯 Arizona State is 13-0 ATS as a road underdog of 4 or more points, following a loss of at least 8 points.
🏀💯 Creighton is 10-0 ATS following a game in which they committed at least 8 turnovers.
🏀 Rutgers has gone UNDER in 10 straight home games that feature a spread within 3 points of pick’em.
🏀 Marist has gone UNDER in 9 straight games as a favorite of fewer than -4.5 points, with fewer than 4 days of rest.
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 128.5
(Total went from 129.0 to 128.5 despite the Over receiving 77% of public bets and 79% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
🏀 Manhattan has gone OVER in 7 straight games as a home underdog of fewer than 6.5 points.
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the OVER 156.5
(Total went from 155.5 to 156.5 despite the Under receiving 79% of public bets and 79% of the money).
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Phoenix @ Toronto UNDER 227.5
(Total went from 228.5 to 227.5 despite the Over receiving 81% of public bets and 82% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Niagara @ Marist UNDER 128.5
(Total went from 129.0 to 128.5 despite the Over receiving 77% of public bets and 79% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Quinnipiac @ Manhattan OVER 156.5
(Total went from 155.5 to 156.5 despite the Under receiving 79% of public bets and 79% of the money).
⏪”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Orlando Magic -13.0
(Spread went from -12.0 to -13.0 despite Washington +13.0 receiving 62% of public bets and 54% of the money).
🔪NYK +8.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪DET/ATL o240.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪ST. JOHNS -4.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪COLORADO AVS ML is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪WAS/EDM u6.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
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