🏀Home teams are 8-0 ATS since 2021 when their opponent’s last game went to overtime, won the game but failed to cover the spread and are now on no rest.
❓This trend suggests that teams coming off an exhausting, close overtime win struggle significantly on no rest, making them vulnerable against a fresh home team. This likely works because overtime games require extra effort, both physically and mentally, leading to fatigue, poor execution, and potential lineup limitations in the next game.
📊The New York Knicks are 1-6-1 ATS when they are playing their second game in two days. Their only win is against the Wizards (who they also lost to under the same conditions) and the push is to the Raptors. They also are 0-3-1 ATS when on the road on a b2b and 0-3 ATS vs teams above .400 on b2b.
❓This trend highlights that the Knicks struggle when playing on short rest, especially against competent opponents. Their only cover came against a weak team (Wizards), and their road struggles suggest that travel plus fatigue makes them even more unreliable. This likely works because the Knicks rely on physical play and defensive intensity, both of which decline in back-to-back scenarios, making it difficult for them to cover spreads.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS vs teams above .550
📉Knicks lost the last matchup by 6 points playing at home vs Cleveland.
🎯Darius Garland has 25+ points in 4 straight games on b2b.
🎯Donovan Mitchell has 6+ assists in 6 straight home games.
⏪”B-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Knicks +8.5 receiving 55% of public bets and 51% of the money).
✅Active on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
🏀San Antonio Spurs are 0-14 ATS as a home underdog against teams they previously defeated when the total is below 246. They lost those games by an average of -13.4 points per game. They are also 0-14 SU in this spot.
❓This trend suggests that when the Spurs face a team they previously beat, they not only fail to cover but also lose outright by a wide margin. This likely happens because teams adjust and seek revenge, exposing San Antonio’s weaknesses in rematches. The total being below 246 also implies a slightly slower-paced game, where the Spurs’ defensive flaws get magnified, making it harder for them to keep up.
📊San Antonio Spurs are 0-10 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points with less than two days of rest against teams they previously defeated. They lost by an average of 16 points per game. They are also 0-10 SU in this scenario.
❓This trend further reinforces that San Antonio struggles in rematches, especially when they don’t have much recovery time. The fact that they lose by an average of 16 points suggests that their style of play is easy to counter, and fatigue only worsens their performance.
📊Detroit Pistons are 12-0-1 ATS in road games with a spread under 9.5, following a game in which they scored 116+ points.
❓This trend indicates that when Detroit plays well offensively (scoring 116+), they carry that momentum into their next road game and consistently exceed expectations. This trend likely works because hot shooting and offensive confidence travel well, and oddsmakers may not fully adjust for the Pistons’ scoring surge.
🕢8:30 PM EST
📈Pistons are 5-1 ATS as road favorites.
🩹Victor Wembanyama (SAS) is ruled OUT
🎯Malik Beasley has 4+ threes in 8 straight games vs teams under .500
✅Active on Detroit Pistons -4.0
🏀Away underdogs priced between +110 & +250 that played their last game at home are 21-2 ATS when the total is between 216.0 & 229.0 and the opponent is in the same conference as them.
🕢9:30 PM EST
🩹Wolves have a lot of injuries to deal with / Randle (O)-Edwards (Q)-Conley (Q)-Gobert (Q)
✅Active on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5
🏀Golden State Warriors are 0-7 ATS with totals greater than 219.5, following a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 points.
📊Golden State Warriors are 1-10 ATS in 2024 vs teams in the Pacific Division.
🕢10:00 PM EST
✅Active on Sacramento Kings +2.5
🏀Manhattan is 13-0 ATS as an underdog when coming off rest between 2 and 11 days.
📊Away underdogs between +3.5 & +4.0 who won their last game are 24-8 ATS vs teams that lost their previous game on the road when the total is below 150.0 in 2024.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Manhattan is 6-1 ATS when their spread is between +1.5 & +5.5
📈Manhattan is 8-2 ATS as road underdogs.
✅Active on Manhattan Jaspers +3.5
◼️Detroit Pistons -4.0 📊🖥️📢💯
◼️Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 📊⏪🖥️📢💯
📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team
🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have hit the OVER in 12 straight games with totals under 236.5, when coming off a game that had a spread within three points of pick’em.
🏀 Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the OVER in 13 straight games with rest against rested teams, following a road loss in the regular season.
🏀 Miami Heat are 0-12 ATS as a road favorite of fewer than six points against conference opponents they previously defeated.
🏀 Orlando Magic are 11-0 ATS at home with spreads greater than -17, when facing teams coming off a road loss that average fewer than 2.2 assists per turnover.
🏀 New York Knicks are 11-0-1 to the OVER as a regular-season underdog.
🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the OVER in 10 straight games as a road underdog in the regular season, when facing a team that is not at a rest disadvantage and that they previously defeated.
🏀 San Antonio Spurs are 0-10 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points with fewer than two days of rest, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀 Dallas Mavericks have hit the OVER in eight straight games, following a game in which they made fewer than 15 three-pointers.
🏀 Oakland is 19-0 ATS as an underdog when the total is 145 or higher.
🏀 Merrimack has gone UNDER in 14 straight home games.
🏀 Princeton is 0-11 ATS with fewer than 10 days of rest, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀 Michigan is 0-10 ATS in revenge games as a favorite of fewer than 21.5 points on non-neutral courts.
🏀 Marquette is 8-0 ATS in its last eight meetings against Villanova.
🏀 Miami (Ohio) has hit the OVER in eight straight games as a home favorite, when the total is less than 161.5.
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”B-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Knicks +8.5 receiving 55% of public bets and 51% of the money).
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