🏀Iowa State is 9-0 ATS as a rested favorite following a game where they allowed opponents to shoot over 39.4% from three. In this situation, they are also 9-0 SU, winning by an average margin of +20.8 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that when Iowa State has time to recover and adjust after a poor defensive game against the three-ball, they bounce back in a dominant fashion. This likely works because their coaching staff emphasizes defensive corrections, and with rest, they execute those adjustments effectively.
📊Colorado is 0-9 ATS as an underdog after scoring 61+ points in their previous game.
❓This suggests that their scoring performance in the previous game may create a false perception of offensive consistency, but in reality, they struggle to replicate it against tougher competition. Their inability to cover likely stems from a combination of inefficient offense and defensive shortcomings when facing stronger opponents.
🕢8:00 PM EST
📈Iowa State is 2-0 ATS vs Colorado this season. (won by 10 & 28 points).
📉Colorado is 2-7 ATS vs teams above .650
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Colorado ATS
✅Active on Iowa State Cyclones -18.5
🏀Houston is 14-0 to the UNDER as a favorite of less than 21.5 points, with fewer than 5 days of rest, following a game where the spread was within 3 points of a pick’em. These games have gone UNDER by an average of -9.4 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that when Houston plays in a game that was expected to be competitive (within 3 points of a pick’em) and then enters their next game as a moderate favorite on short rest, the total tends to go under. This likely works because Houston plays a defensive, physical style that slows the pace, especially when fatigued. Additionally, after a close game, their defense tightens up, limiting scoring opportunities and leading to games finishing nearly 10 points below the total on average.
📊Arizona State is 11-0 to the UNDER when not an underdog of more than 16.5 points against teams averaging fewer than 11 turnovers per game. These matchups have stayed UNDER by an average of -11.9 points per game.
❓This trend indicates that when Arizona State faces teams that take care of the ball, their games consistently go under. This likely happens because low-turnover teams control the pace and prevent transition opportunities, which reduces easy fast-break points. Arizona State also tends to struggle in half-court offensive sets, meaning these matchups become slower, grind-it-out games where scoring is suppressed, leading to an average under margin of -11.9 points.
🕢9:00 PM EST
✅Active on Houston Cougars @ Arizona State Devils UNDER 134.0
🏀Home teams in a revenge game vs a ranked opponent are 45-25-1 ATS since 2022 when they’re coming off a road game vs a ranked opponent.
🕢9:00 PM EST
✅Active on Mississippi State -2.5
BEST PLAYS OF THE DAY
◼️BYU Cougars -3.0 ⏪🖥️👨🔬
◼️UConn Huskies -8.5 📊⏪🖥️👨🔬
◼️Michigan State -3.5 📊🖥️📢
📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
🏀 DAVIDSON has hit the UNDER in 16 straight home conference games against teams with fewer than six days of rest when the spread is within three points of pick’em. (vs Loyola Chicago)
🏀 HOUSTON has hit the UNDER in 14 straight games as a favorite of more than 21.5 points with fewer than five days of rest, following a game where the spread was within three points of pick’em. (vs Arizona State)
🏀 NORTH FLORIDA has hit the OVER in all 12 games this season as a favorite. (vs Stetson)
🏀 VILLANOVA is 0-10 ATS against teams averaging more than 45.8% shooting and 15 assists per game, following a game in which they allowed more than seven made three-pointers. (vs UConn)
🏀 PURDUE is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of fewer than 7.5 points, following a game in which they allowed more than seven delta points. (vs Michigan State)
🏀 BUTLER has hit the OVER in 10 straight games. (vs Xavier)
🏀 TEXAS A&M has hit the UNDER in 9 straight games following a game in which they scored fewer than 75 points. (vs Mississippi State)
🏀 COLORADO is 0-9 ATS as an underdog following a game in which they scored exactly 61 points. (vs Iowa State)
🏀 AUSTIN PEAY has hit the OVER in 8 straight games as a favorite of fewer than 9.5 points. (vs Bellarmine)
🏀 VIRGINIA TECH has hit the OVER in 7 straight games when playing in matchups where the spread is within three points of pick’em. (vs Boston College)
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Western Michigan Broncos -2.0
(Spread went from -1.5 to -2.0 despite Loyola Chicago receiving 98% of public bets and 88% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Buffalo ATS
⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Davidson Wildcats -2.0
(Spread went from -1.5 to -2.0 despite Buffalo receiving 94% of public bets and 75% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Loyola-Chicago ATS
⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Air Force Falcons +8.5
(Spread went from +10.5 to +8.5 despite Wyoming receiving 61% of public bets and 72% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Air Force ATS
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Bowling Green Falcons +6.0
(Spread went from +6.5 to +6.0 despite Kent State receiving 75% of public bets and 81% of the money).
⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -3.0
(Spread went from -2.5 to -3.0 despite Jacksonville receiving 42% of public bets and 64% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Jacksonville ATS
⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of BYU Cougars -3.0
(Spread went from -2.5 to -3.0 despite Kansas receiving 67% of public bets and 62% of the money).
⏪🏀”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of UConn Huskies -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Villanova receiving 54% of public bets and 67% of the money).
Introducing the Kelly Criterion Section
I’m adding a new feature to my daily report for paid subscribers—The Kelly Criterion Section—designed to optimize bankroll management and maximize long-term profitability.
This section will break down suggested bet sizing using the Kelly Criterion, a mathematical formula that determines the ideal wager based on an edge and the odds offered. But we’re taking it a step further—our suggested bets will be based on a powerful Scores Predictor, which runs 10,000 game simulations using an advanced formula that factors in 80+ key parameters from historical data.
What to Expect:
✅ Kelly-Adjusted Bet Sizing – Suggested wager sizes based on calculated edge
✅ Scores Predictor Integration – Using data-driven projections to refine betting decisions
✅ Risk Management Insights – Avoiding overexposure while maximizing value
By combining precision-driven score predictions with the Kelly Criterion, we ensure that our bets aren’t just smart, but also optimally sized for bankroll growth. This approach provides an edge over the market and a structured way to manage risk while capitalizing on profitable opportunities.
For example, let’s say your typical bet size is 10$, the number in the middle column indicates what fraction you should bet on this given game.
Let’s take the first game for example: The bet would be 2.10$ on Bellarmine ML (10$*0.21=2.10$) would pay out 5.38$
This is a perfect mix between bankroll management and sprinkling here and there on underdogs that won our simulations for bigger rewards.
We will track every day’s record starting with a 100$ bankroll and see where it leads us.
Here’s today’s slate⬇️
Thanks for reading today’s insights!
If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.
See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆
