The upcoming matchup between the Texans and Chargers has all the ingredients for a low-scoring, defensive battle. Both teams rely heavily on their defenses to dictate the pace of play, and this game projects to be a grind-it-out affair.
The Texansâ offense has struggled to find its rhythm this season. With just two primary weapons for C.J. Stroudârunning back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Nico CollinsâHoustonâs attack has been far from efficient. The offensive lineâs ongoing struggles in pass protection have led to a heavy reliance on the running game, which might be their best bet against a Chargers defense that has been weaker against the run. Houstonâs shift toward a pass-heavy approach on early downs hasnât yielded results, especially after losing key playmakers like Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Without those two, Collinsâ explosiveness has diminished; heâs averaging under 10 yards per reception without them. This plays right into the Chargersâ defensive strategy of preventing big plays by sitting back in coverage. A run-heavy game plan could help Houston control possession and protect Stroud from the relentless pressure heâs faced all season.
The Chargers defense, while solid overall, has shown vulnerabilities against the run. Los Angeles tends to prioritize coverage over stacking the box, which could open the door for Houstonâs ground game. However, the Chargersâ elite safety, Derwin James, has the ability to neutralize Collins, limiting Houstonâs explosive potential.
Defensively, the Texans are among the best in the league, ranking second in DVOA and excelling against the run. Theyâve allowed the third-fewest adjusted line yards and are in the top four for yards allowed per game to opposing running backs. This strength aligns well against a Chargers offense that relies on its ground game and time of possession to control the pace. Even without starting safeties Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, Houstonâs defense has shown resilience. The Texans are exceptional against play-action passes, which Justin Herbert frequently employs. Herbert has thrived with play-action, averaging 3.4 more yards per attempt in such situations, but Houstonâs defense ranked first in success rate against play-action during the regular season. Additionally, the Texansâ ability to generate pressure without blitzingâboasting a 27.3% non-blitz pressure rate, seventh in the NFLâcould disrupt Herbertâs rhythm.
The Chargersâ offense has been conservative throughout the season, focusing on ball control and minimizing mistakes. They led the league with the fewest points allowed per game (17.7) and turned the ball over just nine times all year. While theyâve had occasional high-scoring outings, their identity has leaned toward old-school football: strong defense, methodical drives, and a focus on time of possession.
Between these two teams, the under hit 19-14-1 during the season, and this matchup presents another strong case for a low-scoring game. Both offenses rank in the middle third of the league in scoring, and while theyâve had flashes of production, consistency has been lacking. The Chargersâ last six games have alternated between high and low-scoring affairs, while the Texansâ offense hasnât surpassed 20 points in five of their last six games.
Houstonâs red zone struggles and the Chargersâ disciplined approach further lean toward a defensive stalemate. With both teams fielding top-tier defenses and offenses prone to lengthy, grinding drives, this matchup sets up as a 20-17 type of game. Grab the under around the key number of 43 (I wouldnât suggest going below), as the value lies in expecting a tightly contested, low-scoring affair.
đThe Houston Texans are 15-0 to the UNDER when the total is set at less than 56.5 and coming off a game in which they recorded 7+ first downs. Those games have been under the total by an average of 6.0 points.
đThe Los Angeles Chargers are 9â0 to the UNDER in non-divisional road games i which they have less than 8 days of rest. Those games have been under the total by an average of 10.3 points.
đHome teams facing a team they failed to cover the spread against in a previous meeting are 25-7 (78%) to the UNDER whe coming off a game as an underdog in which they allowed a 2 points conversion.
đThe Texans are coming off a game in which they recorded more than 7 1st downs and they are facing the Chargers who played 6 days ago. The total is currently set at 41.5
đ˘4:30 PM EST
đTexans are 1-7 to the UNDER at home.
đTexans are 2-5 to the UNDER vs teams that allows less than 21 points per game.
đThe total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games played on a Saturday when at home.
đChargers are 1-4 to the UNDER vs teams that allows between 21 & 25 points per game.
#ď¸âŁChargers have the best scoring defense and Texans have the 18th-best offense in the league.
đŻJustin Herbert has 281+ passing yards in 3 straight games.
đŻJoe Mixon has 19+ rushing attempts in 3 straight games vs LAC.
â
Active on Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans UNDER 43.5 (total is set @42.0)
â ď¸(Iâll buy a couple points to make it safer – 43.5 might the total I buy)
The Ravens and Steelers have always had a storied rivalry, defined by intense matchups and razor-thin margins. But this game feels different. Baltimore enters with momentum and a fully operational offense, while Pittsburghâs struggles on offense appear insurmountable. The question isnât just whether the Steelers can win, but whether they can score enough to keep pace.
Lamar Jackson is in the midst of a season that feels reminiscent of his MVP campaign. His dynamic playmaking ability, paired with a Ravens ground game that has punished defenses with precision and power, makes Baltimoreâs offense a formidable challenge. The Steelers, for all their defensive prowess under Mike Tomlin, are facing a daunting task. Baltimoreâs pistol motion runs gave Pittsburgh fits in their last meeting, creating mismatches and exploiting gaps. The return of blocking tight end Charlie Kolar adds another layer to an already potent attack, and with third-down back Justice Hill back in the mix, the Ravens are poised to keep the chains moving.
Itâs hard not to respect the job Tomlin has done keeping Pittsburgh competitive despite significant offensive limitations. However, those limitations loom large. The Steelers have struggled to generate consistent production, and in a game where Baltimore is likely to dominate field position, itâs difficult to see Pittsburgh sustaining enough drives to stay within striking distance. Even if the Steelers’ defense can limit Baltimore to under 30 points, it might not matter if their own offense canât eclipse 14.
This matchup also highlights Baltimoreâs post-bye dominance. Since their Week 14 bye, the Ravens have rattled off four straight wins, each by a margin of 17 points or more. That stretch includes a decisive victory over these same Steelers. Baltimoreâs ability to impose its will on both sides of the ball has been on full display, and thereâs little reason to think this game will buck the trend.
While divisional rivalries often produce unexpected results, the current trajectory of both teams suggests a clear edge for Baltimore. Pittsburghâs defense may be good, but Baltimoreâs offense is better, and the Steelers’ offensive struggles are too glaring to ignore. Expect the Ravens to control this game and secure a decisive victory.
đThe Baltimore Ravens are 13-0-1 ATS at home when facing a team off a loss, coming off a game in which they score 32+ points.
đHome teams favored by more than a touchdown in an NFL wildcard game, having won more than 8 regular season games are 15-2 ATS since 2002.
đThe Ravens are off to a 35-10 win vs the Browns and they will host the Steelers tonight who have lost their last game to the Bengals.
đ˘8:00 PM EST
đBaltimore are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
đBaltimore are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Saturday.
đPittsburgh has lost 5 straight playoff games.
#ď¸âŁLamar Jackson has a 130.1 passer rating since Week 15 – best in NFL / The Steelers have allowed a passer rating of 114.0 since Week 15 – worst in NFL
đŻLamar Jackson has 207+ passing yards in 6 straight home games.
đŻLamar Jackson has 54+ rushing yards in 7 straight game as favorite in January.
đŻDerrick Henry has 138+ rushing yards in 3 straight games.
â Active on Baltimore Ravens -9.0 (ATS)
âđThe Memphis Grizzlies are a perfect 13-0 ATS following a game in which they committed over 18 turnovers.
âđThe Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-12 ATS as home favorites of -7.0 or less. The Timberwolves have lost 8 straight games in a row in this spot.
âđThe Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS when rested and playing at home, following a road win.
â Active on Memphis Grizzlies -2.0 (ATS) (Not an official play)
đŞLAC/HOU under 42.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
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