Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
Why Jacksonville will cover:
- Run game improvement: With Travis Etienne out, Tank Bigsby is expected to take over as the lead back, which could be a significant upgrade given his explosive performance last week. New England’s weak run defense could struggle to contain Bigsby.
- Trevor Lawrence’s favorable matchup: The Patriots struggle in pass coverage, and with Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram as reliable targets, Lawrence has plenty of weapons to exploit New England’s vulnerable secondary.
Why New England will cover:
- Drake Maye’s improvement potential: While Maye had some struggles in his first start, he has shown flashes of strong play, and Jacksonville’s weak secondary gives him a chance to bounce back and make plays through the air.
- Jacksonville’s inconsistency: The Jaguars have been unpredictable, and Lawrence has missed multiple open receivers throughout the season. If Jacksonville’s offense stumbles again, the Patriots could keep this game within reach.
Why the game will go over:
- Jaguars’ offensive firepower: With Lawrence, Bigsby, and talented receivers, Jacksonville should be able to score efficiently against a struggling Patriots defense, leading to a high-scoring affair.
- New England’s desperation: The Patriots, led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye, could put up points in garbage time or find success against Jacksonville’s leaky secondary, contributing to a higher total.
Why the game will go under:
- Jacksonville’s defense limiting New England: The Jaguars’ pass rush could pressure Maye into mistakes, limiting the Patriots’ scoring chances and keeping the total low.
- Patriots’ struggles on offense: With a banged-up offensive line and limited weapons for Maye, New England could struggle to move the ball and score, leading to a low-scoring game.
Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons
Why Seattle will cover:
- Geno Smith faces a favorable matchup against a Falcons defense that struggles to generate pressure, giving him time to exploit their secondary.
- Kenneth Walker can dominate the Falcons’ weak run defense, which struggled against less dynamic backs like Chuba Hubbard.
Why Atlanta will cover:
- The Falcons’ rushing attack can control the game against a Seahawks defense that has allowed significant rushing yards.
- With Seattle missing key cornerbacks, Kirk Cousins could exploit their secondary, especially targeting Kyle Pitts.
Why the game will go over:
- Both defenses have exploitable weaknesses in the secondary, leading to big passing plays from Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins.
- Both teams have strong running games capable of extending drives and creating scoring opportunities.
Why the game will go under:
- Seattle’s pass rush could force Cousins into mistakes and limit Atlanta’s ability to score consistently.
- If the Falcons focus on a ball-control run-heavy approach, it could slow the pace of the game and limit overall points.
Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans
Why Buffalo will cover:
- Josh Allen’s mobility will be a key factor against Tennessee’s poor linebacking group, leading to big plays both on the ground and through the air.
- The Titans’ secondary is weakened by injuries, and Allen should have no trouble exploiting this matchup, even with a limited receiving corps.
Why Tennessee will cover:
- The Titans’ run game, led by Tony Pollard, can exploit Buffalo’s weak rush defense and keep the game close by controlling the clock.
- Buffalo may be coming off an emotional win and a short week, leading to a potential letdown performance.
Why the game will go over:
- Josh Allen’s ability to generate explosive plays, combined with Tennessee’s potential success on the ground, could lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides.
- The Titans’ defense has struggled, and Buffalo’s offense could pile on points quickly.
Why the game will go under:
- If Tennessee controls the tempo with its running game, it could limit the number of possessions and scoring opportunities.
- Buffalo’s defense, despite some weaknesses, could stifle Tennessee’s limited passing attack and keep the scoring low.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
Why Cincinnati will cover:
- Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that struggles against elite receivers.
- The Browns’ limited offensive firepower, especially with uncertainty around Nick Chubb’s effectiveness, could allow Cincinnati to control the game.
Why Cleveland will cover:
- Myles Garrett’s pressure on Burrow could disrupt Cincinnati’s offense, which has struggled with offensive line protection all season.
- Cleveland’s run game, even with a limited Chubb, should still have success against the Bengals’ shaky run defense.
Why the game will go over:
- Both teams have exploitable defensive weaknesses, with Cincinnati vulnerable against the run and Cleveland’s secondary exposed by top-tier receivers like Chase.
- If Burrow bounces back from his struggles, the Bengals could put up significant points, pushing the total over.
Why the game will go under:
- Cleveland’s ball-control offense, led by the run game, could shorten the game and limit overall possessions.
- Cincinnati’s offensive line struggles could lead to a low-scoring defensive battle, especially with Myles Garrett wreaking havoc.
Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans
Why Green Bay will cover:
- Jordan Love is coming off a breakout performance and faces a Texans defense that struggles to stop the pass and defend the run.
- The Packers’ strong run defense will force Houston into passing situations, where C.J. Stroud could struggle without key receiving targets.
Why Houston will cover:
- The Texans’ run game, led by Joe Mixon, can exploit Green Bay’s inconsistent rush defense, keeping the game close.
- Houston’s ability to move the ball aerially against Green Bay’s banged-up secondary gives them a chance to cover.
Why the game will go over:
- Green Bay’s offense, with Jordan Love healthy, could exploit Houston’s defense both on the ground and through the air.
- Houston’s passing attack could have some success against Green Bay’s secondary, leading to a higher-scoring affair.
Why the game will go under:
- If both teams focus on the run, the pace of the game could slow down significantly, limiting scoring opportunities.
- Green Bay’s defense could stifle Houston’s passing game, especially if the Texans are without key receivers.
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts
Why Miami will cover:
- Tyler Huntley can exploit the Colts’ weak secondary with the help of dynamic playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
- The Dolphins’ rushing attack, featuring Raheem Mostert, should find success against Indianapolis’ struggling run defense.
Why Indianapolis will cover:
- Anthony Richardson’s mobility could exploit Miami’s weak linebacker group, allowing him to extend drives and put the Colts in a position to cover.
- If the Colts control the pace with a strong run game, they can keep Miami’s offense off the field and cover the spread.
Why the game will go over:
- Miami’s explosive offense, combined with Richardson’s potential for big plays, could push the total over.
- Both defenses have struggled at times, leading to more scoring opportunities for both teams.
Why the game will go under:
- If the Colts control the game with their run-heavy approach, it could limit possessions and scoring chances.
- Miami’s defense, despite some weaknesses, could limit Richardson’s ability to generate big plays, keeping the score down.
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
Why Minnesota will cover:
- Sam Darnold will have plenty of time in the pocket to exploit Detroit’s secondary with Hutchinson out, leading to big passing plays.
- The Vikings are coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare and rest key players.
Why Detroit will cover:
- Jared Goff has been efficient against the blitz this season, and Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense may struggle to contain him.
- The Lions’ defense, despite losing Hutchinson, is strong against the run, forcing the Vikings to be one-dimensional.
Why the game will go over:
- Both offenses have the ability to exploit the opposing defenses, especially with Goff’s efficiency and Darnold’s passing ability.
- The Vikings’ pass defense has been vulnerable to top receivers, and Detroit could take advantage.
Why the game will go under:
- If Detroit controls the clock with a ball-control offense, it could limit the number of possessions and keep the total under.
- Minnesota’s defense, particularly in the red zone, could limit Detroit’s scoring opportunities.
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
Why Philadelphia will cover:
- Despite some offensive inconsistencies, the Eagles have enough firepower with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to exploit the Giants’ pass defense.
- Philadelphia’s defense can generate pressure on Daniel Jones, leading to turnovers and big defensive plays.
Why New York will cover:
- The Giants’ pass rush, led by Brian Burns, can disrupt Jalen Hurts without the protection of Jordan Mailata, forcing the Eagles into mistakes.
- With Malik Nabers returning, New York’s offense can exploit Philadelphia’s weak secondary and keep the game close.
Why the game will go over:
- Both teams have explosive playmakers capable of creating big plays, especially with the Eagles’ dynamic offense and the Giants’ weapons in the passing game.
- The Eagles’ secondary has struggled, and the Giants should be able to put up points through the air.
Why the game will go under:
- The Giants’ pass rush could slow down the Eagles’ offense, limiting scoring opportunities for Philadelphia.
- Both teams could struggle to sustain drives due to offensive line issues, keeping the total under.
Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders
Why Los Angeles will cover:
- With Cooper Kupp potentially returning, Matthew Stafford has a major weapon to exploit the Raiders’ weakened pass defense.
- The Raiders struggle to stop the run, and Kyren Williams could have a big game on the ground, helping the Rams control the game.
Why Las Vegas will cover:
- The Raiders have faced blowout losses, making them more motivated, and they can exploit the Rams’ poor run defense with Zamir White.
- The Rams are coming off a bye and may be overlooking the Raiders with a bigger game ahead, giving Las Vegas a chance to keep it close.
Why the game will go over:
- Both teams have defensive weaknesses that can be exploited, particularly with Los Angeles’ passing game and Las Vegas’ run attack.
- If Kupp plays, the Rams’ offense could generate enough points to push the total over, especially with the Raiders’ struggles.
Why the game will go under:
- The Raiders’ injuries and uncertainty on offense could lead to fewer points, especially if they struggle to move the ball consistently.
- If the Rams build an early lead, they could focus on the run, slowing down the game and keeping the total under.
New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Why New York will cover:
- The Jets’ new offensive firepower with the addition of Davante Adams gives Aaron Rodgers elite weapons to exploit Pittsburgh’s defense.
- Pittsburgh’s offensive line injuries could allow the Jets’ defense to control the game, limiting the Steelers’ offensive success.
Why Pittsburgh will cover:
- Mike Tomlin thrives as an underdog, and Pittsburgh’s defense could generate pressure on Rodgers, leading to turnovers and mistakes.
- Russell Wilson’s experience, even with his struggles, could be enough to keep the game close if he avoids turnovers.
Why the game will go over:
- The Jets’ upgraded offense, with Rodgers, Adams, and Wilson, could put up significant points against a banged-up Steelers defense.
- Pittsburgh’s offense, despite limitations, could take advantage of the Jets’ potential defensive lapses, leading to a higher-scoring game.
Why the game will go under:
- Both defenses have strengths that could limit scoring opportunities, especially with Pittsburgh’s ability to pressure Rodgers and the Jets’ ability to shut down Russell Wilson’s weapons.
- If the game becomes a defensive battle, with both teams struggling to sustain drives, the total could stay under.
Baltimore Ravens vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why Baltimore will cover:
- The Ravens’ run-heavy attack, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, has been dominant, and Tampa Bay’s secondary has issues with injuries.
- Even if the Buccaneers slow down the run, Jackson has the ability to exploit their weak pass defense, especially with Jamel Dean out.
Why Tampa Bay will cover:
- Tampa Bay’s strong run defense, anchored by Vita Vea, can slow down Henry and force Jackson into passing situations where turnovers are possible.
- With a healthy offensive line and talented receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Baker Mayfield can take advantage of the Ravens’ poor secondary.
Why the game will go over:
- Both offenses have the potential to score points quickly, with Jackson’s dual-threat ability and Tampa Bay’s passing game against a shaky Ravens defense.
- Tampa Bay’s run defense could force Baltimore to rely more on the passing game, leading to more scoring opportunities.
Why the game will go under:
- If Tampa Bay successfully shuts down Baltimore’s rushing attack, it could limit the Ravens’ scoring potential and lead to a lower-scoring affair.
- Baltimore’s defense, despite weaknesses, could limit Tampa Bay’s offensive success, especially if they can get pressure on Mayfield.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers
Why Arizona will cover:
- Trey McBride has emerged as a key weapon for Kyler Murray, and the Chargers struggle to defend tight ends, allowing McBride to have a big impact on the game.
- The Cardinals, coming off a blowout loss, will be more motivated and focused to bounce back, with Murray’s ability to extend plays giving them a chance to keep it close.
Why Los Angeles will cover:
- The Chargers’ balanced offense, with J.K. Dobbins exploiting Arizona’s poor run defense, will allow Los Angeles to control the game and open up play-action opportunities for Justin Herbert.
- Arizona’s pass rush is among the worst in the NFL, giving Herbert ample time to pick apart their leaky secondary and generate explosive plays.
Why the game will go over:
- The Chargers’ offense should be able to score at will against a weak Cardinals defense, both on the ground and through the air, leading to a high-scoring output.
- Trey McBride’s potential impact and Kyler Murray’s ability to create plays could keep the Cardinals competitive, pushing the total over.
Why the game will go under:
- If Arizona’s offense struggles without Marvin Harrison Jr., their ability to move the ball and score could be significantly limited, keeping the total under.
- The Chargers could dominate the game on the ground with Dobbins, which would slow down the pace and limit overall scoring opportunities.