Game: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Date: Friday, August 9
Time: 5:07 PM ET
In tonight’s highlighted matchup, we are heading north of the border at Rogers Centre for a game between the Oakland A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays. Mitch Spence will take the hill for Oakland and the Jays will send Jose Berrios
Spence’s performance as an away underdog has been dismal, with a record of 1-4 in such situations. His struggles are exacerbated when coming off games where he throws 90+ pitches, holding a 1-6 record in those scenarios. This suggests that Spence tends to wear down, making him vulnerable in his following start. Additionally, his road ERA stands at 5.22, significantly higher than his home ERA of 3.86. His peripheral stats are also concerning, as he ranks in the 18th percentile for barrel rate, 22nd percentile for exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. These numbers indicate that hitters are making solid contact against him, especially on the road.
Berrios has been a reliable force for the Blue Jays, particularly when playing at home. As a home favorite, he boasts a 7-2 record, and when facing teams with a losing record, he’s even more dominant with an 8-1 record. Berrios has a 2.99 ERA at home, compared to a much less impressive 5.29 ERA on the road. Moreover, Berrios has had the Athletics’ number, winning his last five starts against them dating back to 2021.
The Blue Jays have been hot offensively at home, ranking 7th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. On the other hand, the Athletics have been one of the worst teams in these categories, ranking 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers on the road during the same period. The Athletics are also the 4th worst scoring team and rank 5th worst in run defense on the road this season, which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup.
Given the clear pitching advantage with Berrios, the Blue Jays’ recent offensive success at home, and the Athletics’ struggles both offensively and defensively on the road, the Blue Jays’ moneyline (-155) looks like a strong play. Berrios’ track record against the Athletics and Spence’s poor performance trends only solidify the confidence in this bet.
Back the Blue Jays to take care of business at home tonight.