- Date: Monday, August 5, 2024
- Game: San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
- Start Time: 4:45 PM ET
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Tonight’s game at Nationals Park features a compelling matchup as the San Francisco Giants take on the Washington Nationals. With Logan Webb pitching for the Giants and Patrick Corbin taking the mound for the Nationals, the game sets up favorably for San Francisco, particularly given the recent performances and season-long trends of both teams.
Pitching Matchup: Webb vs. Corbin
Logan Webb has been a reliable force for the Giants, with a strong track record against struggling teams. Since 2021, Webb has gone 9-2 straight up (SU) against non-divisional opponents with a losing record who send a starting pitcher with an ERA above 5.00 on the mound. Tonight, he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 24th in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers at home this season. Furthermore, Washington’s hitters have been making weak contact recently, ranking 26th in hard contact rate against righties over the last 14 days.
Webb’s pitch arsenal, which includes a heavy dose of changeups (37%), sinkers (36%), and sliders (22%), aligns well against a Nationals lineup that struggles with these pitches. Specifically, Washington ranks 22nd, 18th, and 25th, respectively, in runs above average against Webb’s primary offerings.
On the other side, Patrick Corbin has endured a tough season, with metrics placing him among the league’s worst. Corbin is in the bottom fifth percentile for expected wOBA (xwOBA), expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. The Giants, who rank seventh in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers on the road this season, are well-equipped to take advantage of Corbin’s struggles. Moreover, Corbin has gone 1-8 SU this season against teams with a winning percentage above .480 when their starting pitcher has an ERA below 4.00.
Corbin’s pitch mix includes sliders (36%), sinkers (34%), four-seam fastballs (14%), and cutters (11%). The Giants have performed well against these pitches, ranking eighth, third, 17th, and 21st, respectively, in runs above average. San Francisco’s hitters have also been making solid contact lately, ranking second in hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 14 days.
Prediction: Giants to Secure the Win
The Giants’ offense has been potent against left-handed pitching, and tonight’s game provides another opportunity to showcase their strength.
Webb’s effectiveness against struggling lineups and the Giants’ strong offensive numbers against left-handers point to a decisive advantage. Meanwhile, Corbin’s ongoing struggles and the Nationals’ weak offensive output make it challenging to foresee a different outcome.
Betting on the Giants ML (-165, BetMGM) to win appears to be a solid choice, as they aim to continue their success against a reeling Nationals team.
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Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.