- Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2024
- Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
- Start Time: 9:40 PM ET
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As the Colorado Rockies head to Angel Stadium of Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels, the matchup brings together two teams trending in opposite directions offensively and with divergent performances from their starting pitchers.
The Rockies have been quietly effective against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days, ranking 6th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+. This offensive surge has been fueled by their impressive batting metrics (4th in batting average, 3rd in home run per flyball percentage, and 6th in both ISO and hard contact percentage).
On the mound for the Angels, Griffin Canning has faced significant struggles this season. Among qualified pitchers, Canning has the worst FIP in the league, the 4th worst xFIP, and ranks in the bottom five in both hard contact percentage allowed and batting average against. His July has been particularly rough, with a .319 batting average allowed, 13 earned runs given up in just 17 innings pitched, and a 6.88 ERA. Tonight’s matchup against a hot Rockies lineup could present further difficulties.
Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Rockies, coming off a solid outing against the red-hot Red Sox, where he allowed only two earned runs on six hits over six innings. Quantrill’s repertoire includes a sinker (37%), splitter (28%), and cutter (14%), pitches that the Angels have struggled against, ranking 20th, 27th, and 27th in runs above average, respectively. Quantrill has also shown a knack for success in specific scenarios; since 2021, he is 11-2 SU (3-0 SU this season) against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .550, sending a pitcher with an ERA above 4.00 when the expected runs total is nine or more.
In contrast, the Angels’ offense has been anemic against right-handed pitchers, ranking 27th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ over the last month. They are 26th in batting average, 29th in slugging percentage, and rank last in both ISO and home run per flyball percentage during the same period.
With the Rockies’ offense firing on all cylinders and the Angels’ lineup and pitching staff facing significant struggles, Colorado appears well-positioned for a strong showing tonight.
The combination of Quantrill’s solid recent performance and Canning’s challenges on the mound point to a nice underdog play on Rockies ML (+120, DK and ESPNBet).