NBA Playoffs | Round 1: Eastern Conference Preview

The playoffs are finally here! We posted the Western Conference preview earlier on Friday, so here is the Eastern Conference breakdown. Here are 3 bullet points for each team and a link to the matchup page where you can dive into advanced stats, trends, splits, and situational spots. Sign up for access to this website free until August 1.

2. New York Knicks vs. 7. Philadelphia 76ers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

New York Knicks

• The Knicks experienced a shift in their first-half against the spread (ATS) performance this season. With a record of only 33-46-3 ATS in the first half, the Knicks struggled to maintain their previous success.
• When favored, the Knicks delivered, boasting an impressive 29-19-1 ATS record as favorites this season. An X-factor for the Knicks this season has been the presence of OG Anunoby. When Anunoby has played, the Knicks boast a stellar 20-3 straight up 16-7 ATS record. His contributions have been instrumental in the team’s success on both ends of the court.
• In the final stretch of the season, the Knicks experienced a surge in offensive production, reflected in their 11-1 over record in their last 12 games. They were ranked #2 in Offensive Rating during this period.

Philadelphia 76ers

• Excluding their Play-In Tournament victory, the 76ers concluded the regular season on a remarkable high note, winning their final 8 games and covering the spread in 10 consecutive outings.
• In all four matchups between the 76ers and Knicks have gone under, with an average score of 190.7. This defensive focus aligns with the 76ers’ track record in playoff games since the 2018-2019 season, where they boast a solid 30-19-2 (61.2%) record to the under.
• The return of reigning MVP Joel Embiid to the lineup with five games remaining in the regular season significantly bolstered the 76ers’ performance. During this timeframe, the 76ers ranked 2nd in Net Rating (+15.3) in the league.

3. Milwaukee Bucks vs. 7. Indiana Pacers

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks

• The Bucks struggled at the end of the regular season, dropping 8 of their last 11 games. This poor performance raised questions about the team’s consistency and readiness for the playoffs.
• The Bucks will be without star Giannis Antetokounmpo: The Bucks had a below .500 record at 4-5 when Antetokounmpo was not in the lineup. Also, they struggle against teams that play at a faster pace than the league average, going 9-23 ATS in those situations.

• The Bucks have demonstrated strength in the first half of games at home with a strong 25-14-3 ATS record in the first half.

Indiana Pacers

• The Pacers have dominated this matchup in the regular season, winning 4 of the 5 matchups outright, including a win in the in-season tournament. The Bucks have a challenging time matching up with the Pacers’ run-and-gun style.
• The Indiana Pacers closed out the regular season scoring well, recording five consecutive overs. During this impressive stretch, they ranked first in Offensive Rating (122.69). This offensive firepower propelled them to finish the season as the second-ranked team in both Offensive Rating and Pace.

• Despite their offensive prowess, the Indiana Pacers have struggled defensively, particularly in limiting opponents’ free throw opportunities. They finished the season last in the league in Free Throw Rate allowed, presenting an area of vulnerability for the Bucks to exploit.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Orlando Magic

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Cleveland Cavaliers

• Despite their reputation as an excellent defensive team with a slower pace of play, the Cleveland Cavaliers have seen a high rate of overs. 9 out of their final 12 regular season games resulted in overs. They were 25-16 to the over at home.

• Despite finishing the season with a respectable 6th ranking in Defensive Rating, the Cleveland Cavaliers faced challenges on the defensive end as the season progressed. In the final 20 regular season games, their defensive performance was only 24th in that timeframe. This raises concerns about their defensive consistency heading into the postseason.
• The Cavaliers finished the regular season on a sour note with a 4-10 ATS record and a final regular season game where they obviously tanked to get to a favorable playoff matchup.

Orlando Magic

• The Magic finished the regular season with the best ATS record in the league at 51-30-1. They were the league’s most undervalued team, and their ability to consistently cover spreads highlights their competitiveness.
• Despite their young roster, the Magic proved to be a formidable defensive force, finishing the season ranked #2 in Defensive Rating (111.29). This defensive prowess reflects their commitment to stifling opponents and limiting scoring opportunities.
• The Magic excelled in key statistical categories. Notably, they led the league in Free Throw Rate, showcasing their ability to draw fouls and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Additionally, their 7th ranking in Offensive Rebound Percentage highlights their prowess on the boards and ability to generate second-chance scoring opportunities.

1. Boston Celtics vs. 8. Miami Heat

Click here for The Money Baller matchup page for stats, trends, splits, and systems for this matchup.

Boston Celtics

• The Boston Celtics have been a force in the first half this season with an impressive 56-25-1 Against The Spread (ATS) record. Despite sweeping the regular-season series against the Miami Heat 3-0, the Celtics struggled to cover the spread (1-2 ATS) in those matchups. The memory of their defeat to the Heat in last year’s seven-game Eastern Conference Finals looms large, motivating the Celtics to seek revenge.

• In their last 14 regular-season games, the Celtics have showcased remarkable offensive efficiency, resulting in an impressive 11-3 Over/Under record.
• Teams playing as home favorites in Game 1 with a rest advantage of 5 or more days have historically performed exceptionally well, boasting a 17-5 SU and 16-6 ATS record according to data from the KillerSports.com database.

Miami Heat

• The Heat are no slouch in the first half either. They are 46-35-2 1H ATS overall, 20-12-2 1H ATS as an underdog. Their ability to stay competitive, even as underdogs, showcases their resilience and determination on the court.
• Games in which Jimmy Butler has been absent have trended towards the under, with a notable 17-6 record this season. Their Offensive Rating worsens by 6.5 points per 100 possessions when he is off the court.
• In their last 12 games, the Miami Heat have been involved in high-scoring affairs, going an impressive 10-2 to the over.

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