Welcome to today’s “Free Preview” article! We went 1-1 on our featured trends yesterday, with the Raptors coming through for us. Unfortunately, the Hawks/Bulls game didn’t hit the over by the hook after a disappointing 50-point fourth quarter. If this is your first time checking us out, we want to extend a big thank you for joining our community!
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Published: Sunday, November 10, 2024 10:05 AM CT
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
- TMB thoughts: Situationally, the Bucks have the edge here, entering a revenge spot against a Celtics team coming off an exhausting OT win against the Nets—prime conditions for a potential letdown. Yet, can we really trust the Bucks in this matchup? Our Baller Exclusive base model still leans toward the Celtics, creating some conflicting signals. With these factors at play, we’re passing on this game.
Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic
- Wizards: 0-7 1H ATS and 1H Team Total O/U
- Wizards: 1-5-1 1H O/U
- Baller System on the Under: Under system based on falling line
- TMB thoughts: The Wizards’ first-half struggles have continued with an 0-7 ATS record and a trend toward lower-scoring first halves at 1-5-1 on 1H O/U. With Paolo Banchero out, the Magic’s offensive production takes a significant hit—on/off numbers reveal a 14.8-point drop in their Offensive Rating per 100 possessions, along with a slower Pace by 2.7 possessions. The Baller System under signal based on a falling line further supports taking the 1H Under 112.5 as a strong play in this matchup.
Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers
- TMB thoughts: Indicators lean towards the under in this matchup, particularly with LaMelo Ball listed as questionable. However, with his status still uncertain, it’s prudent to hold off until more clarity is available.
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
- Warriors: 6-0 1H ATS on the road
- Warriors: 7-2 ATS this season
- Warriors: 1-7-1 1H O/U this season
- Thunder: 7-2 ATS this season
- TMB thoughts: No play here, as conflicting factors make this matchup a tough call. The Thunder have been dominant, and the initial read leans toward them potentially prevailing at home. However, the Warriors’ resilience and tendency to outperform market expectations add uncertainty. With these mixed signals, this one is a stay-away game for now.
Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns
- Suns: 1-4 ATS at home
- TMB thoughts: The Suns are in a potential letdown situation, coming off a tight win against the rival Mavericks. With Kevin Durant sidelined, the Suns’ depth will be tested, which further boosts confidence in the Kings’ ability to cover the spread here. The indicators align strongly for Kings -1 in this one.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers
- Grizzlies: 8-2 1H ATS
- Baller System active on Grizzlies: Back road favorite (on road trip) vs. home team w/ next game at home (complacent)
- TMB thoughts: Grizzlies 1H has been a solid bet this season, while the Trail Blazers are returning home from a 4-game road trip, a spot where we’ve seen team have a let-down spot. We are going Grizzlies 1H ML -110.
Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers
TMB thoughts: There are multiple signals pointing to the over in this matchup between two fast-paced teams. The Raptors rank 8th and the Lakers 7th in pace, which should lead to a high number of possessions. Both teams also have poor defensive ratings, with the Raptors sitting 29th and the Lakers 25th. With the Baller System active for the over and their most recent matchup seeing 256 total points, we’re comfortable backing the over 236 here.